Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that China will not launch a military invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of observable preparations such as large-scale amphibious assault rehearsals or troop concentrations in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine PLA aircraft sorties and naval deployments in early May. A March U.S. intelligence assessment concluded Chinese leaders lack plans for a 2027 invasion or fixed timeline, citing prohibitive economic sanctions, military costs, and U.S. deterrence bolstered by recent Balikatan exercises involving U.S., Philippine, and allied forces. With just six weeks remaining, logistical barriers for a cross-strait operation remain immense; only a sudden escalation like a maritime incident or diplomatic rupture could shift odds, though none has materialized in the past 30 days.