**Trader consensus on a 79.5% implied probability for no China-Philippines military clash before 2027 reflects sustained diplomatic restraint amid gray-zone tensions in the South China Sea.** Recent incidents, including mutual flag-planting on a disputed reef on May 3, 2026, Philippine surveillance of Chinese research and coast guard vessels escorted by militia near Iroquois Reef, and China's Liaoning carrier drills during April's Balikatan US-Philippines exercises, have escalated verbal accusations but stopped short of live-fire exchanges. Resumed high-level bilateral consultations on March 28 and ASEAN-China talks on a Code of Conduct under Manila's 2026 chairmanship signal de-escalation channels, while US alliance deterrence and economic interdependence raise barriers to armed conflict between PLA and Philippine forces. Upcoming ASEAN summits could further temper risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$335,826 Обс.
$335,826 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$335,826 Обс.
$335,826 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on a 79.5% implied probability for no China-Philippines military clash before 2027 reflects sustained diplomatic restraint amid gray-zone tensions in the South China Sea.** Recent incidents, including mutual flag-planting on a disputed reef on May 3, 2026, Philippine surveillance of Chinese research and coast guard vessels escorted by militia near Iroquois Reef, and China's Liaoning carrier drills during April's Balikatan US-Philippines exercises, have escalated verbal accusations but stopped short of live-fire exchanges. Resumed high-level bilateral consultations on March 28 and ASEAN-China talks on a Code of Conduct under Manila's 2026 chairmanship signal de-escalation channels, while US alliance deterrence and economic interdependence raise barriers to armed conflict between PLA and Philippine forces. Upcoming ASEAN summits could further temper risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$335,826Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on a 79.5% implied probability for no China-Philippines military clash before 2027 reflects sustained diplomatic restraint amid gray-zone tensions in the South China Sea.** Recent incidents, including mutual flag-planting on a disputed reef on May 3, 2026, Philippine surveillance of Chinese research and coast guard vessels escorted by militia near Iroquois Reef, and China's Liaoning carrier drills during April's Balikatan US-Philippines exercises, have escalated verbal accusations but stopped short of live-fire exchanges. Resumed high-level bilateral consultations on March 28 and ASEAN-China talks on a Code of Conduct under Manila's 2026 chairmanship signal de-escalation channels, while US alliance deterrence and economic interdependence raise barriers to armed conflict between PLA and Philippine forces. Upcoming ASEAN summits could further temper risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$335,826Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on a 79.5% implied probability for no China-Philippines military clash before 2027 reflects sustained diplomatic restraint amid gray-zone tensions in the South China Sea.** Recent incidents, including mutual flag-planting on a disputed reef on May 3, 2026, Philippine surveillance of Chinese research and coast guard vessels escorted by militia near Iroquois Reef, and China's Liaoning carrier drills during April's Balikatan US-Philippines exercises, have escalated verbal accusations but stopped short of live-fire exchanges. Resumed high-level bilateral consultations on March 28 and ASEAN-China talks on a Code of Conduct under Manila's 2026 chairmanship signal de-escalation channels, while US alliance deterrence and economic interdependence raise barriers to armed conflict between PLA and Philippine forces. Upcoming ASEAN summits could further temper risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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