Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict center on a fragile April 2026 ceasefire that remains on life support after U.S. rejection of Tehran’s 14-point proposal and Iranian insistence on sanctions relief plus guarantees against future strikes. Direct talks mediated by Pakistan have stalled, with both sides dismissing each other’s terms on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and proxy threats. Israeli leaders continue to condition any lasting agreement on dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, while Iranian officials signal they will not accept deals that leave them vulnerable. These mutual rejections, alongside ongoing reconstitution of Iranian missile capabilities and limited Hezbollah cross-border activity, have kept prospects for a verified permanent peace deal low. Traders are watching for any breakthrough in extended U.S.-Iran negotiations or renewed military escalation that could shift the timeline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$911,043 Обс.
May 31, 2026
May 31
4%
June 30
14%
$911,043 Обс.
May 31
$261,244 Обс.
4%
June 30
$335,184 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict center on a fragile April 2026 ceasefire that remains on life support after U.S. rejection of Tehran’s 14-point proposal and Iranian insistence on sanctions relief plus guarantees against future strikes. Direct talks mediated by Pakistan have stalled, with both sides dismissing each other’s terms on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and proxy threats. Israeli leaders continue to condition any lasting agreement on dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, while Iranian officials signal they will not accept deals that leave them vulnerable. These mutual rejections, alongside ongoing reconstitution of Iranian missile capabilities and limited Hezbollah cross-border activity, have kept prospects for a verified permanent peace deal low. Traders are watching for any breakthrough in extended U.S.-Iran negotiations or renewed military escalation that could shift the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$911,043Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict center on a fragile April 2026 ceasefire that remains on life support after U.S. rejection of Tehran’s 14-point proposal and Iranian insistence on sanctions relief plus guarantees against future strikes. Direct talks mediated by Pakistan have stalled, with both sides dismissing each other’s terms on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and proxy threats. Israeli leaders continue to condition any lasting agreement on dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, while Iranian officials signal they will not accept deals that leave them vulnerable. These mutual rejections, alongside ongoing reconstitution of Iranian missile capabilities and limited Hezbollah cross-border activity, have kept prospects for a verified permanent peace deal low. Traders are watching for any breakthrough in extended U.S.-Iran negotiations or renewed military escalation that could shift the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$911,043Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict center on a fragile April 2026 ceasefire that remains on life support after U.S. rejection of Tehran’s 14-point proposal and Iranian insistence on sanctions relief plus guarantees against future strikes. Direct talks mediated by Pakistan have stalled, with both sides dismissing each other’s terms on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and proxy threats. Israeli leaders continue to condition any lasting agreement on dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, while Iranian officials signal they will not accept deals that leave them vulnerable. These mutual rejections, alongside ongoing reconstitution of Iranian missile capabilities and limited Hezbollah cross-border activity, have kept prospects for a verified permanent peace deal low. Traders are watching for any breakthrough in extended U.S.-Iran negotiations or renewed military escalation that could shift the timeline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання