Claudia Sheinbaum began her single six-year presidential term in October 2024 after a decisive victory as the Morena candidate, backed by strong congressional majorities that enabled early constitutional changes. As of mid-2026, recent polling shows her favorability holding in the mid-to-high 50s to low 70s despite a modest decline from peak levels, with traders viewing early exit via resignation, impeachment, or other removal as unlikely absent a major domestic crisis or health event. Key influences include ongoing U.S.-Mexico tensions over visas and security cooperation, continued cartel enforcement actions, and infrastructure initiatives that sustain party cohesion. No legislative or judicial developments have emerged to alter term expectations through late 2026 or 2027.