Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies have conducted targeted operations against Sinaloa Cartel factions and Northeast Cartel cells in 2026, including the June arrest of regional Los Chapitos figure Gabriel Nicolás Martínez Larios and the May detention of Northeast Cartel cell leader José Antonio Cortes Huerta. These actions align with ongoing federal indictments, reward programs exceeding $100 million for high-value targets, and joint enforcement efforts focused on fentanyl and methamphetamine networks. Trader sentiment reflects the pace of such mid-level captures alongside the structural challenges of apprehending top figures amid cartel fragmentation and cross-border movement. Scheduled U.S. indictments and Mexican security operations through year-end remain key variables that could shift probabilities for specific names.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
$143,093 Обс.
Feb 28, 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
60%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
50%
$143,093 Обс.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,906 Обс.
60%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,848 Обс.
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Обс.
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,874 Обс.
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,662 Обс.
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$200 Обс.
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Обс.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies have conducted targeted operations against Sinaloa Cartel factions and Northeast Cartel cells in 2026, including the June arrest of regional Los Chapitos figure Gabriel Nicolás Martínez Larios and the May detention of Northeast Cartel cell leader José Antonio Cortes Huerta. These actions align with ongoing federal indictments, reward programs exceeding $100 million for high-value targets, and joint enforcement efforts focused on fentanyl and methamphetamine networks. Trader sentiment reflects the pace of such mid-level captures alongside the structural challenges of apprehending top figures amid cartel fragmentation and cross-border movement. Scheduled U.S. indictments and Mexican security operations through year-end remain key variables that could shift probabilities for specific names.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$143,093Дата завершення
Feb 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies have conducted targeted operations against Sinaloa Cartel factions and Northeast Cartel cells in 2026, including the June arrest of regional Los Chapitos figure Gabriel Nicolás Martínez Larios and the May detention of Northeast Cartel cell leader José Antonio Cortes Huerta. These actions align with ongoing federal indictments, reward programs exceeding $100 million for high-value targets, and joint enforcement efforts focused on fentanyl and methamphetamine networks. Trader sentiment reflects the pace of such mid-level captures alongside the structural challenges of apprehending top figures amid cartel fragmentation and cross-border movement. Scheduled U.S. indictments and Mexican security operations through year-end remain key variables that could shift probabilities for specific names.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$143,093Дата завершення
Feb 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mexican authorities and U.S. agencies have conducted targeted operations against Sinaloa Cartel factions and Northeast Cartel cells in 2026, including the June arrest of regional Los Chapitos figure Gabriel Nicolás Martínez Larios and the May detention of Northeast Cartel cell leader José Antonio Cortes Huerta. These actions align with ongoing federal indictments, reward programs exceeding $100 million for high-value targets, and joint enforcement efforts focused on fentanyl and methamphetamine networks. Trader sentiment reflects the pace of such mid-level captures alongside the structural challenges of apprehending top figures amid cartel fragmentation and cross-border movement. Scheduled U.S. indictments and Mexican security operations through year-end remain key variables that could shift probabilities for specific names.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання