Cuba's deepening 2026 energy and economic crisis—exacerbated by January's U.S.-backed ouster of Venezuelan President Maduro, severing oil subsidies—has fueled recent protests in Havana and eastern provinces, including cacerolazos on May 14 amid island-wide blackouts and fuel exhaustion. President Miguel Díaz-Canel expressed openness to U.S. aid on May 14, while CIA Director's visit signaled diplomatic pressure, yet the government released over 2,000 prisoners earlier as concessions without yielding power. Despite escalating unrest, traders see the Communist regime's loyal security apparatus and history of suppressing dissent—like 2021 protests—as major barriers to collapse by year-end, pricing "No" at 70.5% implied probability reflecting resilient institutional control.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
$251,932 Обс.
$251,932 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$251,932 Обс.
$251,932 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Cuba's deepening 2026 energy and economic crisis—exacerbated by January's U.S.-backed ouster of Venezuelan President Maduro, severing oil subsidies—has fueled recent protests in Havana and eastern provinces, including cacerolazos on May 14 amid island-wide blackouts and fuel exhaustion. President Miguel Díaz-Canel expressed openness to U.S. aid on May 14, while CIA Director's visit signaled diplomatic pressure, yet the government released over 2,000 prisoners earlier as concessions without yielding power. Despite escalating unrest, traders see the Communist regime's loyal security apparatus and history of suppressing dissent—like 2021 protests—as major barriers to collapse by year-end, pricing "No" at 70.5% implied probability reflecting resilient institutional control.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$251,932Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Cuba's deepening 2026 energy and economic crisis—exacerbated by January's U.S.-backed ouster of Venezuelan President Maduro, severing oil subsidies—has fueled recent protests in Havana and eastern provinces, including cacerolazos on May 14 amid island-wide blackouts and fuel exhaustion. President Miguel Díaz-Canel expressed openness to U.S. aid on May 14, while CIA Director's visit signaled diplomatic pressure, yet the government released over 2,000 prisoners earlier as concessions without yielding power. Despite escalating unrest, traders see the Communist regime's loyal security apparatus and history of suppressing dissent—like 2021 protests—as major barriers to collapse by year-end, pricing "No" at 70.5% implied probability reflecting resilient institutional control.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$251,932Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Cuba's deepening 2026 energy and economic crisis—exacerbated by January's U.S.-backed ouster of Venezuelan President Maduro, severing oil subsidies—has fueled recent protests in Havana and eastern provinces, including cacerolazos on May 14 amid island-wide blackouts and fuel exhaustion. President Miguel Díaz-Canel expressed openness to U.S. aid on May 14, while CIA Director's visit signaled diplomatic pressure, yet the government released over 2,000 prisoners earlier as concessions without yielding power. Despite escalating unrest, traders see the Communist regime's loyal security apparatus and history of suppressing dissent—like 2021 protests—as major barriers to collapse by year-end, pricing "No" at 70.5% implied probability reflecting resilient institutional control.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання