Recent euro area inflation data and revised forecasts have reinforced expectations for additional ECB tightening through early 2027. September headline inflation reached 3.8 percent, driven by energy price surges linked to Middle East developments, while the October 30 Survey of Professional Forecasters lifted 2026 and 2027 projections to 3.0 percent and 2.6 percent. The ECB held its deposit facility rate at 2.50 percent on October 29 but noted upside risks to inflation and an extended period above target. Money markets price a December hike and cumulative increases of roughly 39 basis points by the March 2027 meeting, aligning with the 57.5 percent probability traders assign to a 25 basis point rise at that date. Core measures and wage trends remain contained so far, supporting the lower odds on larger moves or cuts.