Zandvoort's narrow, banked layout with limited runoff areas and dune sections has historically produced incidents that trigger safety cars, particularly when rain falls. Current forecasts show an 85% chance of precipitation across the sprint weekend, including race day on August 23, raising the odds of crashes, debris, or standing water that force marshals to deploy the safety car. The 2026 regulations and new Mercedes safety car have not altered these track-specific dynamics, while the addition of a sprint format adds another high-intensity session where incidents could bunch the field. Trader consensus at 67.5% for a safety car reflects these elevated risks without assuming guaranteed chaos.