Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations near Havrylivka northeast of Oleksandrivka in recent months, with reported attacks in April 2026 but no confirmed territorial gains in the immediate area. Ukrainian units have instead made verified advances in the Oleksandrivka direction as of early June 2026, consistent with broader patterns of localized Ukrainian pressure and Russian infiltration attempts amid heavy drone activity. Both sides face constraints from drone swarms that hinder large-scale armored maneuvers, contributing to a grinding frontline dynamic rather than rapid territorial shifts. Traders monitoring this market focus on Institute for the Study of War geolocated updates, Russian Ministry of Defense claims, and any shifts in offensive tempo through summer 2026 that could alter control of the specified intersection.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$123,969 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
8%
December 31
15%
$123,969 Обс.
September 30
$5 Обс.
8%
December 31
$287 Обс.
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations near Havrylivka northeast of Oleksandrivka in recent months, with reported attacks in April 2026 but no confirmed territorial gains in the immediate area. Ukrainian units have instead made verified advances in the Oleksandrivka direction as of early June 2026, consistent with broader patterns of localized Ukrainian pressure and Russian infiltration attempts amid heavy drone activity. Both sides face constraints from drone swarms that hinder large-scale armored maneuvers, contributing to a grinding frontline dynamic rather than rapid territorial shifts. Traders monitoring this market focus on Institute for the Study of War geolocated updates, Russian Ministry of Defense claims, and any shifts in offensive tempo through summer 2026 that could alter control of the specified intersection.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 24, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$123,969Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 24, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations near Havrylivka northeast of Oleksandrivka in recent months, with reported attacks in April 2026 but no confirmed territorial gains in the immediate area. Ukrainian units have instead made verified advances in the Oleksandrivka direction as of early June 2026, consistent with broader patterns of localized Ukrainian pressure and Russian infiltration attempts amid heavy drone activity. Both sides face constraints from drone swarms that hinder large-scale armored maneuvers, contributing to a grinding frontline dynamic rather than rapid territorial shifts. Traders monitoring this market focus on Institute for the Study of War geolocated updates, Russian Ministry of Defense claims, and any shifts in offensive tempo through summer 2026 that could alter control of the specified intersection.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png
Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png
Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Обсяг
$123,969Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 24, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations near Havrylivka northeast of Oleksandrivka in recent months, with reported attacks in April 2026 but no confirmed territorial gains in the immediate area. Ukrainian units have instead made verified advances in the Oleksandrivka direction as of early June 2026, consistent with broader patterns of localized Ukrainian pressure and Russian infiltration attempts amid heavy drone activity. Both sides face constraints from drone swarms that hinder large-scale armored maneuvers, contributing to a grinding frontline dynamic rather than rapid territorial shifts. Traders monitoring this market focus on Institute for the Study of War geolocated updates, Russian Ministry of Defense claims, and any shifts in offensive tempo through summer 2026 that could alter control of the specified intersection.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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