Russian forces continue limited infiltration attempts and artillery pressure around Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast as part of broader operations aimed at approaching Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian defenses have disrupted these moves through drone strikes on logistics, localized counterattacks near Borova that have drawn away Russian units, and fortified positions that prevent confirmed territorial gains into Lyman itself. Recent assessments through mid-June 2026 show no verified Russian advances toward the key objectives, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control over most surrounding areas despite sustained Russian Western Grouping operations. The resolution window ending June 30 leaves minimal time for a breakthrough absent a major shift in force allocation or Ukrainian redeployment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоReports debunk Russian claims of capturing Lyman, affirming Ukrainian control
June 30 drops to 1%6%
Multiple sources and analysts refuted Russian claims of capturing Lyman, describing raised flags as propaganda and confirming Ukrainian forces still hold the city and railroad station. This skepticism contributed to market price volatility and declines for earlier deadlines.
Analyst states Lyman is 'about to fall' to Russian forces
December 31 jumps to 77%13%
An analyst noted that Lyman was 'about to fall' to Russian forces, reflecting increased expectations of Russian capture, which contributed to a price increase for the December 31 outcome to 77% by June 26.
Reports highlight ongoing contested control and intensified fighting near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
Late June 2026 reports indicated ongoing contested control of Lyman with intensified fighting and infiltration missions, with Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian advances, reflecting uncertainty in control status.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but face fuel supply issues
December 31 jumps to 76%13%
On June 23, Russian forces intensified attacks north of Lyman but began facing fuel supply shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics. This logistical strain limited Russian offensive momentum and contributed to continued stalemate, reflected in fluctuating market confidence.
Russian forces attempt infiltration on Lyman outskirts amid difficult fighting
December 31 jumps to 78%14%
DeepState reported Russian troops attempting to infiltrate eastern outskirts of Lyman with difficult fighting near Yampil and Ozerne, but no confirmed major territorial gains, reflecting ongoing contested control.
Putin signals readiness for peace talks but demands Ukrainian capitulation
December 31 rises to 72%2%
Putin stated Russia is ready for peace talks based on prior demands amounting to Ukrainian capitulation, but no negotiated settlement granting Russia control of Lyman was announced, leaving market resolution dependent on military control.
Russian MoD claims advances in Lyman with disputed flag-raising footage
December 31 jumps to 77%12%
The Russian Ministry of Defense published footage purportedly showing Russian forces raising a flag in Lyman, but ISW could not verify it and suspected AI alteration, highlighting ongoing contested control and contributing to market uncertainty and price swings.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman with numerous assault attempts
December 31 surges to 79%16%
On June 22, 2026, Russian troops launched 24 attacks near Lyman and adjacent settlements, reflecting sustained offensive efforts. Despite this, Ukrainian defenders maintained resistance, contributing to market volatility and a moderate price increase.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman with increased infiltration attempts
December 31 jumps to 78%14%
By June 21, Russian troops intensified assaults and infiltration missions near Lyman, exploiting foliage for concealment, but Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian positions and repel advances, maintaining a contested frontline.
Russian forces claim seizure of Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman
December 31 rises to 72%2%
Russian milbloggers claimed Russian forces seized the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman and advanced nearby, indicating tactical gains near Lyman's rail infrastructure, boosting market optimism for capture by year-end.
Russian forces fail to capture Brusyn Train Station near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 1%15%
Russian forces failed to capture the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, a key strategic objective, significantly weakening the case for a Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian milbloggers claim seizure of Brusyn Train Station near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 65%9%
Russian milbloggers claimed Russian forces seized the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman and advanced nearby, though ISW noted positions remain interspersed, indicating partial advances but not full control of Lyman railroad station, affecting market prices.
Russian sources claim advances near Lyman but Ukrainian forces strike back
On June 21, Russian sources claimed advances near Lyman including seizing the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, but Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions, indicating contested control and ongoing fighting.
Russian servicemember raises flag in central Lyman during infiltration mission
December 31 jumps to 64%14%
Footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, assessed as an infiltration mission rather than consolidated control, sustaining market uncertainty about Russian capture by December 31.
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces shelling eastern Lyman and raising flag in central Lyman
December 31 rises to 51%3%
Footage indicated ongoing Russian infiltration missions and shelling in Lyman, but no confirmed consolidation of control over the railroad station. This maintained uncertainty in the market about Russia's ability to capture Lyman by the deadlines.
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions and flag-raising in central Lyman
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces conducting infiltration missions and raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, indicating attempts to establish control but without confirmed full capture. This led to mixed market reactions with some price recovery.
ISW reports Russian infiltration and flag raising in central Lyman
December 31 jumps to 57%6%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces raising a flag in central Lyman during infiltration missions, indicating partial Russian presence but not full control of the railroad station. Ukrainian forces continued to hold eastern Lyman, sustaining the market's mixed outlook with prices around 50-70%.
Russian forces intensify assaults and infiltration near Lyman amid contested control
December 31 jumps to 65%12%
Russian forces intensified assaults and infiltration missions near Lyman in late June, with some claims of advances but Ukrainian forces maintaining positions, reflecting ongoing contested control and market uncertainty.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman, claim advances
December 31 jumps to 70%14%
In June 2026, Russian sources claimed advances near Lyman and seizure of nearby train stations, but Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area, leading to mixed signals and market volatility.
ISW reports Russian infiltration mission raising flag in central Lyman
December 31 jumps to 63%14%
Geolocated footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, indicating partial Russian presence but not full control, causing slight market uptick.
ISW reports Russian forces raising flag in central Lyman during infiltration mission
December 31 jumps to 52%6%
On June 20, 2026, ISW published geolocated footage showing a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, assessed as part of a Russian infiltration mission rather than full control. This indicated ongoing contested fighting and partial Russian presence, influencing market optimism about eventual capture.
Geolocated footage shows Russian servicemember raising flag in central Lyman
December 31 surges to 64%16%
On June 19, 2026, footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a flag in central Lyman, indicating at least partial Russian infiltration or presence, which caused a market price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Russian infiltration mission raises flag in central Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 surges to 70%18%
Geolocated footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, signaling partial Russian presence but not full control, contributing to rising market confidence.
Russian forces raise flag in central Lyman amid infiltration missions
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces raising a flag in central Lyman, assessed by ISW as a Russian infiltration mission rather than confirmed control, reflecting ongoing contested fighting and uncertainty, influencing market price volatility in June.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in Lyman but fail to consolidate control
December 31 surges to 63%15%
On June 19-20, Russian forces increased infiltration missions in Lyman, including raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, but ISW assessed these were limited infiltration efforts without consolidated control. Ukrainian forces repelled infiltrators and maintained positions, sustaining uncertainty about Russian capture and causing market volatility.
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces raising flag in central Lyman amid infiltration missions
December 31 jumps to 63%12%
Footage published on June 19-20 showed Russian forces shelling eastern Lyman and raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, indicating infiltration but not full control. Ukrainian forces maintained positions in eastern Lyman, sustaining uncertainty and causing market prices to fluctuate around 50-63% Yes for December 31.
Clashes reported near Lyman amid ongoing Ukrainian resistance
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine detailed ongoing clashes near Lyman, reinforcing perceptions of sustained Ukrainian control and resistance, which contributed to low market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Fighting intensifies near Lyman railway station as Russian forces advance
December 31 surges to 70%22%
Active fighting occurred in the center of Lyman near the railway station and industrial zones, with Russian forces making infiltration attempts but Ukrainian forces maintaining control. This led to market uncertainty and price fluctuations, with a trough at 48% and subsequent recovery to 70%.
Renewed Russian attacks near Lyman raise capture prospects
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Renewed Russian military activity near Lyman in mid-June caused a modest price increase from 48% to 54%, indicating a slight rise in market confidence that Russia might capture the railroad station by December 31, 2025.
Russian forces reach Novatorskaya train station in Lyman
December 31 rises to 59%3%
Russian military reportedly reached the Novatorskaya train station in Lyman, indicating significant territorial gains and increasing market confidence in Russia capturing the Lyman railroad station by the December 31 deadline.
Active fighting continues in Lyman with Russian forces nearly clearing urban areas
December 31 jumps to 63%12%
By mid-June, Russian 'West' group forces had almost completely cleared urban areas of Lyman, with fighting ongoing near the railway station and industrial zones. This intensified fighting increased market confidence in a potential Russian capture by December 31, reflected in price rises to 63% Yes.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
June 30 drops to 6%5%
Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Lyman direction, prioritizing advances toward Lyman with small infantry groups, but Ukrainian counterattacks limited progress. Market prices for capture by June 30 dropped sharply, reflecting reduced confidence in near-term Russian success.
Russian forces reach Novatorskaya train station in Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 jumps to 65%13%
Russian forces reportedly reached the Novatorskaya train station and bus station in Lyman, with Ukrainian forces retreating beyond the railroad. This indicated partial Russian control of key infrastructure, raising market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces hold positions and inflict losses on Russian troops near Lyman
Ukrainian Defense Forces maintained their positions near Lyman and inflicted significant losses on Russian forces, continuing to prevent Russian capture of the area. This sustained defense kept market confidence low for a June 30 capture.
Sustained combat near Lyman with no confirmed Russian capture
December 31 surges to 70%17%
Despite over 200 combat engagements and multiple Russian attacks near Lyman, Ukrainian forces maintained effective resistance. The lack of confirmed Russian control over Lyman railroad station contributed to market price uncertainty and moderate increases.
Ukrainian counterattacks continue to hold Lyman railroad station
December 31 jumps to 56%8%
Reports from June 12 indicated ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks east of Lyman, with ISW confirming Ukrainian control of the railroad station, limiting Russian progress and causing market price fluctuations.
Ukraine holds Lyman against Russian encirclement attempts
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Reports indicated Ukrainian forces successfully resisted Russian attempts to encircle and capture Lyman, maintaining control of the railroad station and surrounding areas, reinforcing market expectations of no Russian capture by mid-2026.
Rail station operator killed in Ukrainian rail infrastructure strike near Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%3%
A Ukrainian rail station operator was killed during a strike on rail infrastructure, highlighting ongoing conflict and instability around Lyman's railway facilities, contributing to market uncertainty.
Ukrainian counterattacks squeeze Russian salient north of Lyman
December 31 surges to 64%15%
Ukrainian forces counterattacked north of Lyman, pushing back Russian troops and threatening their supply lines, complicating Russian efforts to surround and capture Lyman, dampening market optimism for a quick Russian capture.
Ukraine advances north of Lyman, squeezing Russian salient
June 30 dips to 4%4%
Reports indicated Ukrainian advances north of Lyman, contesting previously Russian-held areas and suggesting Russian forces were under pressure, reducing likelihood of Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian defenders repel Russian attacks near Lyman, maintain control
June 30 dips to 4%3%
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attacks near Lyman and continued to hold defensive lines, preventing Russian advances. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Ukraine advances north of Lyman, challenging Russian control
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Reports indicate Ukrainian forces have advanced further north of Lyman than maps show, contesting areas previously held by Russia and squeezing the Russian salient, reducing likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman by mid-2026.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman amid Ukrainian defensive success
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman but Ukrainian defenders maintained positions and inflicted significant losses, sustaining a contested frontline and market uncertainty about Russian capture.
Ukrainian Counterattacks and Defensive Lines Hold Lyman Salient
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Reports confirm that Ukrainian counterattacks and robust defense lines have successfully squeezed the Russian salient, preventing Russian forces from capturing Lyman and delaying their broader strategic goals.
Reports indicate Ukrainian advances north of Lyman contest Russian control
December 31 jumps to 55%6%
Multiple sources reported that Ukrainian forces advanced further north of Lyman than official maps show, contesting areas previously held by Russia, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture by mid-2026.
Russian forces reinforce positions near Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 jumps to 65%13%
Reports indicated Russian command redeployed units near Lyman to reinforce after heavy losses, while Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks northwest and northeast of Lyman. This suggested ongoing contested fighting without decisive Russian capture, influencing market prices downward.
Russian forces fail to make significant advances near Lyman, shift focus to Kostyantynivka
June 30 plunges to 5%17%
Russian offensives around Lyman stalled with no major territorial gains, and command shifted priority to Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian counterattacks and infiltration missions disrupted Russian momentum, causing market prices for June 30 outcome to drop sharply.
Russian Spring-Summer offensive around Lyman fails to make significant gains
December 31 rises to 51%4%
Russian mechanized assaults around Lyman in June 2026 did not result in significant territorial advances, with Ukrainian counterattacks reported, leading to continued uncertainty and moderate market recovery for December 31 but sharp decline for June 30.
Evidence suggests Ukrainian advances north of Lyman exceed maps
Reports indicated Ukrainian forces advanced further north of Lyman than current maps show, contesting Russian control and lowering market confidence in Russian capture by mid-June.
Reports indicate Ukraine holds more positions in Lyman than previously assessed
December 31 drops to 42%8%
A source reporting on the Russian Western Grouping of Forces indicated Ukrainian control of roads and positions around Lyman, with geolocated footage showing Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions. This suggested Ukrainian resilience and limited Russian gains, contributing to a price drop to 42% Yes for December 31.
Russian assaults around Lyman show limited success amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 jumps to 52%6%
Despite renewed Russian mechanized assaults, Ukrainian forces maintained control over key areas near Lyman, keeping market confidence moderate and prices volatile.
Evidence shows Ukrainian advances north of Lyman, Russian forces squeezed
June 30 drops to 6%5%
Multiple sources including ISW and independent analysts reported Ukrainian advances beyond official maps north of Lyman, with Russian forces under pressure and unable to secure the railroad station. This contributed to the June 30 outcome price dropping to 6%.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman but fail to make significant advances
December 31 jumps to 56%8%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman in early June but failed to make significant advances, leading to continued Ukrainian control and market price volatility.
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold Lyman line amid Russian attacks
June 30 plunges to 7%15%
Despite heavy Russian attacks and airstrikes near Lyman, Ukrainian forces maintained their defensive positions, inflicting significant losses on Russian troops. This reinforced market sentiment against a near-term Russian capture.
Reports Indicate Ukrainian Advances North of Lyman Exceed Map Depictions
December 31 dips to 48%3%
Frontline analysts reported that Ukrainian forces had advanced further north of Lyman than depicted on public maps, capturing towns and squeezing the Russian salient.
Russian offensive stalls near Lyman, shifts focus to Kostyantynivka
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make significant advances, shifting their main effort to Kostyantynivka, reflecting operational difficulties and causing mixed market reactions.
Russian forces break through western defenses in Lyman, city falling within days
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Reports indicated Russian forces breaking through western defenses in Lyman, suggesting imminent capture and causing a temporary increase in market confidence for Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian forces counterattack near Lyman, striking Russian positions
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied buildings northwest of Lyman, indicating active Ukrainian resistance and limiting Russian control, which contributed to market skepticism about a full Russian capture by mid-2026.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Lyman but face strong Ukrainian resistance
December 31 jumps to 54%8%
In early June, Russian forces launched numerous attacks near Lyman, including 14 attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian forces repelled many assaults, maintaining control of the area, which influenced market prices to remain uncertain but rising towards capture by year-end.
ISW: Russia suffers net loss of territory around Lyman in early June
June 30 drops to 11%11%
ISW’s June 6 assessment described a net loss of Russian‑held ground in the Lyman sector, pushing the “June 30” probability higher as the market saw a likely continuation of the status quo.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in northwestern Lyman
December 31 dips to 47%1%
Ukrainian counterattacks and strikes on Russian-occupied buildings in Lyman demonstrated continued Ukrainian resistance, limiting Russian territorial gains and dampening market confidence.
Ukrainian forces conduct counterattacks and strikes in and around Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Ukrainian army heavily shelled areas east of Lyman and infiltrated nearby settlements while Russian forces intensified their offensive within the city, indicating ongoing contested control and no decisive Russian capture yet.
Russian offensive intensifies within Lyman amid Ukrainian shelling east of city
December 31 dips to 52%3%
Despite heavy Ukrainian shelling east of Lyman and infiltration attempts, Russian forces advanced into Severny and Zavodskoy districts and the railway area, reinforcing market belief in imminent Russian control.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian-occupied buildings in northwestern Lyman
On June 9, Ukrainian forces struck Russian-occupied buildings in northwestern Lyman, indicating ongoing contested control and active Ukrainian resistance, which kept market prices volatile.
Russian offensive intensifies in Lyman as Ukrainian forces infiltrate nearby areas
December 31 rises to 52%3%
Russian forces entered northern and western districts of Lyman, including the railway area, while Ukrainian forces infiltrated nearby Yampil and forest east of Lyman, creating a contested battlefield and maintaining uncertainty in market prices.
Ukrainian forces infiltrate areas near Lyman amid intensified Russian offensive
December 31 dips to 48%2%
Ukrainian army heavily shelled forests east of Lyman and infiltrated Yampil and areas along the T-05-13 highway, while Russian forces intensified their offensive within Lyman city, creating a contested and fluid frontline.
Ukrainian Forces Strike Russian Infiltration Groups in Northwestern Lyman
December 31 drops to 42%12%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and struck Russian-occupied buildings in northwestern Lyman following a Russian infiltration mission, demonstrating active Ukrainian resistance inside the city limits.
Ukrainian forces counterattack northwest of Lyman, striking Russian positions
June 30 drops to 22%9%
Geolocated footage and reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied buildings northwest of Lyman indicated strong Ukrainian resistance, dampening market confidence in Russian capture and causing price declines for the June 30 outcome.
Russian milbloggers claim advances in central Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 jumps to 52%6%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances in central Lyman, supported by geolocated footage of Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions, indicating active contested combat and influencing market optimism.
Ukrainian forces heavily shell forest east of Lyman while Russian offensive intensifies in city
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Ukrainian shelling east of Lyman and infiltration efforts coincided with intensified Russian offensives within the city, reflecting ongoing contested control and maintaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian army heavily shells forest east of Lyman amid Russian offensive intensification
Ukrainian forces shelled areas east of Lyman while Russian forces intensified their offensive within the city, including entering northern and western districts and the railway area, reflecting ongoing fierce combat and contested control.
ISW reports intensified Russian assaults near Lyman but no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 49%1%
Russian forces increased attacks in the Lyman area, focusing on surrounding settlements to interdict Ukrainian supply routes, but no confirmed capture of the railroad station occurred, stabilizing market prices around 49% Yes for December 31.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman but fail to secure decisive gains
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
Russian forces launched numerous attacks near Lyman, attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defenses, but Ukrainian troops repelled many attempts. The continued fighting without clear Russian capture kept market prices volatile and uncertain.
Russian assault troops penetrate deeper into Lyman amid encirclement efforts
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Russian assault troops penetrated deeper into Lyman's built-up areas while Ukrainian forces retreated to new defensive lines. The ongoing urban combat and encirclement attempts influenced market prices upward.
Russian Guards 'West' units develop operation to encircle Lyman garrison
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Russian infantry infiltrated Lyman's central district aiming to encircle Ukrainian strongpoints, indicating intensified efforts to capture Lyman, causing slight market price increase.
Russian Guards 'West' units attempt to encircle Lyman garrison
December 31 rises to 52%4%
Russian infantry intensified infiltration and encirclement operations in Lyman, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenders and briefly raising market optimism for Russian capture.
Russian infantry infiltrates Lyman, encircling Ukrainian garrison
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Russian Guards 'West' units developed an operation to encircle the Lyman garrison from the flanks, with infantry penetrating deeper into the city, increasing market expectations for Russian capture by December 31.
Russian Guards 'West' units encircle Lyman garrison from flanks
December 31 jumps to 55%6%
Russian infantry infiltrated deeper into Lyman's built-up areas, including the railway zone, aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces, significantly boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian infantry infiltrates Lyman aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces
December 31 rises to 54%3%
Russian infantry units were reported infiltrating deep into Lyman's built-up areas with the goal of encircling Ukrainian strongpoints, signaling intensified urban combat but not full control, leading to mixed market reactions.
Ukrainian forces maintain control in Lyman despite Russian proximity
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Despite Russian forces being close to Slovyansk and intensifying operations, Ukrainian forces continued to operate in Lyman and nearby areas, indicating no Russian capture of the station and sustaining market uncertainty.
LiveUAMap logs six failed Russian assaults near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 22%29%
A LiveUAMap report listed a series of six Russian attacks in the Lyman direction that failed to achieve territorial change, reinforcing the market’s tilt toward “June 30”.
Russian forces launch multiple assaults near Lyman, Ukrainian troops repel attacks
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Russian troops attempted numerous assaults near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces thwarted 21 attempts to advance, maintaining control and preventing Russian capture, influencing market confidence for December 31 capture.
ISW reports Russian forces failed to infiltrate significant parts of Lyman
December 31 dips to 48%1%
ISW reported that Russian forces only infiltrated a small isolated section of southeastern Lyman and that claims of Russian control in northern and northeastern Lyman were false. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture by the end of 2025.
Russian forces fail to secure Lyman, limited infiltration only
June 30 rises to 8%2%
Reports from Ukrainian military observers indicated Russian forces failed to infiltrate more than a small isolated section of Lyman, with no confirmed control of the railroad station. This reinforced market skepticism about capture by June 30.
Russian forces advance in southeastern Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Early June 2026 saw Russian forces advancing in southeastern Lyman, suggesting incremental gains but not full control, contributing to mixed market signals and modest price increases for December 31 outcome.
ISW reports Russian infiltration in eastern Lyman but no consolidated control
December 31 dips to 49%3%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces operating in eastern Lyman after infiltration missions, but ISW assessed no consolidated presence or encirclement, indicating ongoing contested control and limiting market confidence.
ISW map shows Ukrainian control holding near Lyman railroad station
December 31 drops to 46%8%
The ISW map indicated Ukrainian control near the Lyman railroad station as of early June, leading to a price trough at 46% for the December 31 outcome, reflecting diminished expectations of Russian capture by the deadline.
Source refutes Russian claims of capture south of Lyman
June 30 drops to 8%6%
ISW reported a source refuting Russian claims of seizing Brusivka and Stary Karavan south of Lyman, confirming no new ground was taken and driving “June 30” to 8 % on 29‑Jun.
ISW: No confirmed Russian advances near Lyman as of June 1
The ISW June 1 assessment confirmed that Russian forces had made no confirmed advances in the Slovyansk/Lyman direction and that Ukrainian forces had largely halted the Russian offensive. This reinforced the market view that a capture by June 30 was increasingly unlikely, keeping the “June 30” price at 7 %.
Russian claims of seizing settlements near Lyman refuted by local sources
December 31 rises to 51%1%
A source reporting on the Russian Western Grouping of Forces refuted Russian claims of seizing Stary Karavan and Brusivka south of Lyman, indicating limited Russian territorial gains. This further dampened market confidence in a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but fail to make confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 47%1%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements but did not secure new territory. Ukrainian drone strikes impeded Russian logistics and personnel buildup, further reducing Russian chances of capturing Lyman railroad station by the deadline.
Ukrainian drones halt Russian buildup around Lyman
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
ISW noted that Ukrainian drone strikes impeded Russian buildup around Lyman, further dragging the “December 31” probability down and shifting focus to the “June 30” option.
Russian forces continue offensive in Lyman sector but make no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 46%2%
Russian forces maintained offensive operations north and southeast of Sumy City and in the Slovyansk direction near Lyman but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, indicating stalled progress and contributing to market price declines.
Russian forces continue infiltration near Lyman but no confirmed advances
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
On June 1, Russian forces continued infiltration missions near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances, indicating ongoing contested control and contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian advances in May 2026 minimal, offensive largely halted
June 30 drops to 6%9%
Reports indicated Russian forces occupied only 14 additional square kilometers in May 2026, with Ukrainian forces largely halting the offensive. This confirmed the slow progress near Lyman and contributed to the market's decline in capture probability for June 30.
Russian claims of seizing areas south of Lyman refuted; no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 46%2%
A source refuted Russian claims of seizing Stary Karavan and Brusivka south of Lyman, and Russian forces did not make confirmed advances, leading to market price stabilization around 46% for December 31.
Clashes continue near Lyman with no confirmed Russian capture of railroad station
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Ongoing fighting and multiple repelled Russian assaults near Lyman without confirmed control of the railroad station maintained uncertainty and low market confidence in Russian capture by May 31.
ISW reports Russian forces continue infiltration but no confirmed capture of Lyman
ISW reported ongoing Russian infiltration missions near Lyman but no confirmed territorial gains or capture of the railroad station, reinforcing the market's low confidence in Russian capture by May 31, 2026.
Ukrainian strikes destroy Russian long-range aircraft and missile system near Taganrog
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Ukrainian forces destroyed two Tu-142 long-range aircraft and an Iskander missile system at a Russian air base near Taganrog, weakening Russian military capabilities and contributing to declining market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian analysts claim rapid advance toward Lyman
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
A media report citing Russian analysts claiming a rapid advance toward Lyman sparked a brief resurgence of “December 31” odds, reflected in the modest June 4 price bump.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but face strong Ukrainian defense
December 31 rises to 50%1%
Russian forces attempted 12 times to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman and surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian forces held firm. This ongoing fighting kept market confidence moderate, with prices around 49-50% Yes for December 31.
Twelve Russian break‑through attempts near Lyman repelled
June 30 plunges to 9%64%
EMPR reported twelve Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses around Lyman, all repelled. The string of failures drove the June‑30 market sharply downward.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Lyman direction, continuing to impede advances
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian servicemembers near Lyman, confirming ongoing Ukrainian resistance and lack of Russian control over the railroad station, supporting low market prices for capture by May 31.
ISW reports Russian generals provide false maps claiming towns including Lyman captured
December 31 dips to 48%3%
ISW revealed that Russian generals fed the Kremlin false information about territorial gains including Lyman, masking a steep slowdown in advances. This undermined confidence in Russian capture prospects and contributed to market price declines.
DeepStateMap marks Ukrainian gains near Novoselivka
June 30 drops to 7%6%
DeepStateMap showed Ukrainian forces recapturing positions around Novoselivka, confirming a Ukrainian counter‑offensive in the Lyman sector and further depressing the June‑30 odds.
ISW map shows Ukrainian control of Lyman railroad station
December 31 dips to 49%3%
ISW's May 29 assessment indicated Ukrainian forces still controlled the Lyman railroad station, maintaining resistance against Russian advances and stabilizing market prices around 50%.
ISW reports Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming towns never captured
June 30 drops to 16%6%
ISW revealed that Russian generals provided inflated reports of territorial gains including near Lyman, masking a steep slowdown in advances. This disclosure likely contributed to declining market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by June 30.
ISW reports Russian generals exaggerate territorial gains near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 50%16%
Leaked maps and assessments revealed Russian commanders overstated control of towns near Lyman, with ISW noting only minor advances and Russian forces ordered to accelerate offensives. This contributed to a market decline from 66% to 50% Yes for December 31.
ISW reports Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming towns never captured
December 31 drops to 54%12%
ISW revealed that Russian military command regularly presents exaggerated maps to Kremlin leadership, including false claims of territorial gains such as in Lyman, which likely misleads strategic decisions and affects market perceptions of Russian advances.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances on Lyman axis
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Amid slow progress and inflated reporting, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered forces to accelerate advances along the Lyman axis, reflecting pressure to achieve tangible gains, which briefly supported market prices.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances in Lyman direction
December 31 dips to 48%1%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western Grouping of Forces to increase the pace of advances in the Lyman direction, reflecting pressure to achieve gains despite limited success, causing minor market fluctuations.
Russian Defense Minister orders increased pace of advances in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western Grouping of Forces to accelerate advances in the Lyman direction, signaling high command pressure to capture the area. Despite this, Russian forces made limited gains, reflecting ongoing challenges.
ISW: Russian forces make no new advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 46%6%
ISW reported that Russian infantry groups near Lyman had made no further gains since late April, prompting a sharp fall in “December 31” odds.
Russian Defense Minister Orders Accelerated Advances Along Lyman Axis
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western grouping of forces to accelerate offensive operations along the Kupiansk, Borova, and Lyman axes, attempting to align actual battlefield gains with inflated internal military maps.
Belousov orders faster push on Lyman axis
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Defense Minister Belousov ordered acceleration of advances along the Lyman axis, briefly boosting optimism and pushing “December 31” back up to 51 % on 20‑May.
Ukrainian forces maintain control and target Russian logistics near Lyman
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Ukrainian brigades reported targeting Russian ground lines of communication and drone operators near Lyman, inhibiting Russian supply and limiting advances. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces target Russian supply lines near Lyman, limiting advances
June 30 drops to 6%10%
Ukrainian brigades reported targeting Russian ground lines of communication and drone operators near Lyman, disrupting Russian supply and limiting their ability to sustain forward positions. This contributed to the market's sharp decline in confidence for capture by June 30 and May 31 deadlines.
Russian military command's exaggerations persist amid slow advances near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 6%16%
ISW reported that Russian forces have only infiltrated small areas near Lyman with no significant gains, while Ukrainian forces continue to disrupt Russian logistics, maintaining low market confidence for capture by June 30.
Reports indicate Ukrainian control of road between Lyman and Stavky
December 31 dips to 50%2%
A source reported Ukrainian forces control the road between Lyman and Stavky, with footage showing Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions nearby, suggesting Ukrainian hold on key access routes and limiting Russian control of Lyman.
Ukrainian forces hold more positions in Lyman than previously assessed
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Reports and geolocated footage in late May indicated Ukrainian forces controlled roads and positions around Lyman, suggesting Russian forces had not fully captured the area. This assessment lowered confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of key roads near Lyman
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Ukrainian forces controlled the road between Lyman and Stavky and held positions east and north of Lyman, indicating strong defense and limiting Russian advances. Market prices declined further to 49% for December 31.
Ukrainian forces control road between Lyman and Stavky, Russian strikes near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Ukrainian forces reportedly controlled the road between Lyman and Stavky, limiting Russian advances. Russian forces continued strikes east and north of Lyman but failed to secure the area, causing market uncertainty and a decline in capture probability.
Ukrainian forces control road northeast of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Reports and geolocated footage indicated Ukrainian control of the road between Lyman and Stavky, with Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions nearby. This suggested Ukrainian defensive strength and limited Russian territorial gains, contributing to market price declines.
Ukrainian strikes force Russian withdrawal of equipment from Lyman frontline
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Ukrainian strikes against Russian military infrastructure forced Russian forces to withdraw equipment from the Lyman frontline, indicating difficulties for Russia to maintain offensive momentum. This development likely contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian forces reinforce Lyman direction but face Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 dips to 51%3%
In late May, Russian forces redeployed units to the Lyman direction and increased artillery and armored presence, but Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes hindered Russian advances, keeping the frontline contested and market prices subdued.
Russian forces hesitant to use artillery and armor near Lyman due to Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31 dips to 51%3%
On May 23, reports indicated Russian forces hesitated to deploy artillery and armored vehicles near Lyman because of effective Ukrainian battlefield air interdiction and frequent counterattacks. This limited Russian offensive capability and contributed to stalled advances, influencing market prices downward for near-term capture.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions east of Lyman amid infiltration missions
June 30 plunges to 28%26%
In late May 2026, Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian positions east of Lyman, indicating active resistance and contested control, which pressured market prices downward for Russian capture by June 30.
Russian forces report successes in Lyman direction amid contradictory reports
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Russian Armed Forces reported successes in Lyman and nearby areas, while reports on the northern flank were contradictory, reflecting ongoing contested fighting and uncertainty affecting market prices.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman after infiltration missions
December 31 drops to 54%10%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman following Russian infiltration missions, indicating ongoing contested control and limiting Russian consolidation, which pressured market prices downward.
Ukrainian forces advance southeast of Kryva Luka and strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman
December 31 dips to 50%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances and strikes near Lyman, indicating ongoing Ukrainian control and resistance, which kept market confidence in Russian capture low.
US DIA and NATO report Ukraine's strong defense stabilizing front near Lyman
June 30 drops to 7%6%
Western intelligence assessments highlighted Ukraine's effective defense and Russian offensive stagnation near Lyman, reinforcing market doubts about Russian capture by June 30 and May 31 dates.
Ukrainian strike on Russian position in eastern Lyman shows stalled Russian advance
June 30 plunges to 7%26%
Critical Threats reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position in eastern Lyman on May 20, indicating continued Ukrainian resistance and no Russian breakthrough. The assessment that Russian advances were stalling reinforced a bearish outlook for a Lyman capture, driving the “June 30” price to a low of 7 % by early June.
US Defense Intelligence Agency notes Ukraine's territorial gains after Russian loss of Starlink
December 31 dips to 50%4%
The DIA reported Ukraine's recent territorial gains following Russian loss of Starlink access, indicating effective Ukrainian resistance and hindering Russian advances near Lyman, lowering capture probability.
Russian forces report successes on Lyman front amid ongoing attacks
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Russian forces reported successes in Lyman and nearby areas despite contradictory reports. Continued fighting and strikes on logistics infrastructure kept the situation fluid, with no confirmed Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station, maintaining market uncertainty and a moderate price level.
Russian Armed Forces report successes near Lyman amid contradictory reports
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Russian forces reported successes near Lyman in May, but reports were contradictory, leading to market price fluctuations and uncertainty about control of the area.
Ukrainian forces hold key roads and strike Russian positions near Lyman
December 31 dips to 49%3%
Geolocated footage and reports indicated Ukrainian control of roads between Lyman and nearby settlements and strikes on Russian positions, showing Ukrainian resistance and limiting Russian advances, contributing to market price declines.
Bloomberg reports Kremlin officials see war in deadlock but Putin aims to seize Donetsk by end 2026
December 31 rises to 54%1%
On May 22, 2026, Bloomberg reported that senior Kremlin officials believed the war had reached a dead end with no clear resolution, but President Putin remained committed to fully seizing Donetsk Oblast, including Lyman, by the end of 2026. This reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian mid‑range strikes intensify against Russian logistics near Lyman
June 30 drops to 16%6%
Brovdi announced a surge in Ukrainian mid‑range strikes targeting Russian logistics near Lyman, reinforcing the view that Russia would not capture the station, pushing “June 30” down to 16 % on 3‑May.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman after infiltration mission
December 31 dips to 52%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman following a Russian infiltration mission, indicating that Russian forces had not secured control of the area including the railroad station.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions east of Lyman amid infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 55%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman after Russian infiltration missions, indicating ongoing contested control and Ukrainian resistance. This maintained uncertainty in the market, with prices fluctuating around 50-58% Yes for December 31.
Geolocated footage shows Russian advances north and east of Lyman
Footage published in mid-May showed Russian forces advancing in eastern Ridkodub and central Torske, north and east of Lyman, indicating ongoing Russian efforts to approach Lyman but without confirmed capture of the railroad station, sustaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian Forces Strike Russian Infiltration Position in Eastern Lyman
June 30 jumps to 14%8%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position in eastern Lyman following a localized Russian infiltration mission, showing that Russian forces had not established stable control.
Russian command transfers tank regiments to Lyman direction
December 31 jumps to 79%13%
Reports indicated that Russian command moved several tank regiments to the Lyman direction to compensate for losses, suggesting a focus on capturing Lyman. This reinforced market expectations for a Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman amid ongoing fighting
May 31 dips to 1%4%
Geolocated footage on May 20 showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in eastern Lyman, indicating active contested control and no confirmed Russian capture of the railroad station. This contributed to further market decline in the probability of Russian capture by May 31.
Ukrainian counterattack expands control east of Lyman
December 31 drops to 57%8%
Ukrainian forces continued a counterattack expanding control east of Lyman, maintaining control of the railroad station and limiting Russian advances, contributing to a decline in market confidence for Russian capture by December 31.
Russian assault groups infiltrate Lyman's central districts amid heavy fighting
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Reports indicated Russian infantry infiltrated deep into Lyman's central microdistricts aiming to encircle Ukrainian strongpoints, signaling intensified urban combat and potential for future gains.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of western Lyman, repel Russian incursions
May 31 drops to 2%5%
Ukrainian reports and geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces still holding western Lyman and repelling Russian infiltrations, reinforcing market belief that a capture was unlikely; price for May 31 fell from 7 % to 2 % the next day.
Russian forces intensify drone attacks and logistics disruption near Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Reports indicated increased use of Molniya drones by Russian forces complicating Ukrainian logistics around Lyman, reflecting ongoing fierce fighting and influencing market perceptions of Russian capture chances.
Ukrainian forces maintain control in western Lyman amid intensified Russian drone strikes
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces holding positions in western Lyman, while Russian forces increased drone attacks targeting Ukrainian logistics, indicating ongoing contested control and limiting Russian advances, reflected in market price decline.
Russian and Ukrainian forces intensify logistics strikes near Lyman
June 30 drops to 7%6%
Both sides increased efforts to disrupt each other's logistics in the Lyman direction, with Russian forces using drones and Ukrainian forces conducting counterattacks, reflecting a stalemate and contributing to declining market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian oil refinery and pumping station in Russia, signaling ongoing pressure
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and pumping stations, indicate sustained Ukrainian operational capability, indirectly affecting Russian logistics near Lyman and market confidence.
Deal reached to end strike at largest US commuter railroad
While unrelated to the conflict, this event coincided with a minor market stabilization period, reflecting external factors affecting market liquidity rather than the Lyman situation.
Ukrainian forces intensify strikes on Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 54%13%
Ukrainian drone strikes and artillery targeted Russian logistics and troop concentrations near Lyman, disrupting Russian operations and contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Ukrainian air force reports Russian missile and drone attacks on multiple locations
May 31 dips to 3%1%
Ukrainian forces confirmed Russian missile and drone attacks, with wreckage found at a railway station in the Krasnodar region. This incident may have contributed to market volatility.
Gerasimov claims 85 % of Lyman seized during May 16 briefing
Gerasimov again announced that Russian forces had captured 85 % of Lyman during a meeting with the Western Grouping. The market reacted with a modest rise (from 13 % to 13 % – stabilising) but the overall trend remained downward, confirming diminishing belief in a capture.
Ukrainian staff says Russian forces still 2‑4 km from Lyman suburbs
June 30 plunges to 23%16%
The staff reported Russian forces were only 2‑4 km from key Lyman suburbs, underscoring a lack of progress and causing the “June 30” price to slip to 23 % on 17‑May.
Gerasimov claims Russian advance toward Shevchenkove near Lyman
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces advancing westward from Kupyansk toward Shevchenkove, implying progress near Lyman. This raised market hopes but was tempered by ISW assessments showing slow actual advances and no confirmed capture of Lyman station.
Gerasimov states 85 % of Lyman under Russian control
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Gen. Gerasimov again claimed 85 % of Lyman captured; the market swung back up for the “December 31” outcome as traders weighed the renewed assertion.
Russian General Staff chief falsely claims over 85% control of Lyman
December 31 drops to 50%8%
Valery Gerasimov again exaggerated Russian control near Lyman, claiming over 85% control, while ISW and other sources reported only minor Russian presence. This ongoing misinformation campaign contributed to market skepticism and price declines for near-term capture outcomes.
ISW refutes Russian claims of advances in Kharkiv region
December 31 plunges to 48%38%
ISW reported that Russian General Valery Gerasimov falsely claimed Russian forces had captured 50% of Lyman and other settlements, but ISW data showed only 0.06% of Lyman was under Russian control, causing a significant price drop.
Russian General Gerasimov falsely claims 85% control of Lyman, ISW refutes
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 85% of Lyman, but ISW found only 0.06% Russian presence, indicating severe exaggeration and no actual capture, causing market confidence to decline sharply.
Russian General Staff again exaggerates advances near Lyman and Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Russian General Staff chief Gerasimov falsely claimed advances near Lyman and other settlements, but ISW confirmed only minimal Russian control, maintaining skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Gerasimov falsely claims significant Russian advances near Lyman and Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 48%7%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces captured 85% of Lyman and other settlements, but ISW data showed minimal Russian presence, undermining credibility of Russian claims and lowering market confidence.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman with multiple assaults
December 31 dips to 52%2%
Mid-May reports show Russian forces launching multiple assaults near Lyman, attempting to break Ukrainian defenses. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces continued to hold, reflected in market price fluctuations around this time.
ISW assesses Russian forces hold only limited infiltration positions in Lyman, no consolidated control
On May 16, ISW reported that Russian forces only infiltrated about 0.06% of Lyman and do not hold consolidated positions, indicating no capture of the railroad station and sustaining market skepticism about a near-term Russian capture.
ISW map shows Lyman still under Ukrainian control
The latest Institute for the Study of War map, released on May 15, confirmed that the Lyman railroad station remained under Ukrainian control, solidifying the market’s final move to low ‘Yes’ probabilities across all outcomes.
Market sentiment declines amid stalled peace talks and ongoing Russian offensives
December 31 drops to 48%6%
As peace talks showed limited progress and Russian military pressure continued, market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by year-end decreased, reflected in a price drop to around 48%.
ISW confirms Russian forces still lack control of Lyman railway station
May 31 drops to 2%5%
A late‑May ISW bulletin confirmed that Russian forces had not seized the Lyman railway station and were on the defensive, driving the “May 31” price down further from 7 % to 2 %.
Russian forces advance near Lyman's outskirts, geolocated footage confirms
Geolocated footage showed Russian advances in eastern Ridkodub and central Torske near Lyman, raising market hopes and stabilizing prices around 50-54%.
Russian Defense Minister outlines plans to accelerate offensive tempo
December 31 jumps to 67%8%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov announced plans to preserve and accelerate the tempo of the offensive in Donetsk and other regions, including efforts to drive Ukrainian forces from parts of Zaporizhzhia. This renewed military focus supported moderate market confidence in a December 31 capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian logistics sites intensify
May 31 drops to 2%10%
A surge in Ukrainian deep‑strike drone operations against Russian supply lines increased the perceived risk of a Russian counter‑offensive, causing a slight dip in the May‑31 price from 12% to 2% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces push back Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian infiltration missions near Lyman, undermining Russian momentum and contributing to market skepticism.
ISW reports no confirmed Russian advances in Lyman area, market confidence collapses
May 31 dips to 2%4%
By mid-May, ISW assessments continued to show no confirmed Russian control of Lyman railroad station, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for capture by May 31 and June 30, reflecting diminished expectations for near-term capture.
Russia continues to face resistance in eastern Ukraine
June 30 drops to 7%9%
Continued reports of Ukrainian defensive operations and lack of significant Russian territorial gains in the analysis window led to a further decline in the June 30 outcome.
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish military-to-military dialogue
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Senior officials from the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after the New START treaty expired, signaling potential for renewed communication channels.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian oil depot, prompting Russian retaliation
May 31 plunges to 2%24%
A high‑profile Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil depot heightened tensions and led to a sharp decline in the May‑31 odds as traders expected Russian focus to shift away from Lyman.
Russian drone strike on Dnipro kills miners, raises security concerns
May 31 dips to 2%3%
A high‑profile Russian drone attack in Dnipro heightened security concerns and shifted market focus away from Lyman, contributing to the May 31 price falling to a low of 2% that day.
Market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman drops to near zero amid persistent Ukrainian defense
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Market prices for Russian capture by May 31 fell sharply to 1%, reflecting reports of strong Ukrainian resistance and lack of Russian territorial gains at the Lyman railroad station.
ISW assesses Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains
ISW concluded that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than 17 March, and that Russian forces have lost ground since 1 March. This comprehensive assessment of Russian military failure likely contributed to the market's continued price stability at 54% for the December 31 outcome.
Russian military command exaggerates territorial gains near Lyman
May 31 drops to 1%5%
Russian claims of advances were contradicted by ISW and Ukrainian sources showing minimal Russian control near Lyman, leading to a further decline in market confidence for capture by May 31.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
Market reacts to reports of stalled Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Reports indicated that Russian forces were unable to secure decisive gains near Lyman, leading to a drop in market prices for Russian capture by December 31 and June 30. The market reflected growing skepticism about Russian success by mid-May.
Russian drone strike kills 12 miners in Dnipro, heightening frontline fighting
The deadly drone attack underscored Russia’s intensified use of air power near the front, reducing confidence in a negotiated settlement and pushing the May‑31 price down to 2% as the market saw little chance of a Russian capture of Lyman before year‑end.
Russian military command reinforces Lyman direction amid declining advances
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Reports indicated Russian command attached additional forces to the Lyman direction, but overall Russian advances declined due to Ukrainian strikes and recruitment issues, reducing market confidence in imminent capture.
Russian officials warn of extending gains if talks fail
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Putin’s warning that Russia would push further if peace talks stalled revived concerns of a Lyman capture, nudging the December‑31 price up from 55% to 50% before the market closed the day.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, investigators suspect Ukraine
December 31 dips to 50%4%
A high-ranking Russian general was killed by a car bomb in Moscow, with investigators suspecting Ukrainian involvement, reflecting ongoing covert conflict and instability that likely dampened market confidence in Russian advances including Lyman.
European allies announce new security guarantees for Ukraine
May 31 drops to 3%9%
The coalition of the willing pledged extensive security guarantees, reducing expectations that Russia would secure Lyman before year‑end, pushing the May 31 price down to single digits.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power plants cause severe electricity shortages
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure intensified, exacerbating shortages and increasing pressure on Ukraine’s defenses. This heightened conflict intensity near contested areas like Lyman, affecting market perceptions of control dynamics.
Russian forces advance near Lyman amid ongoing shelling and drone strikes
Russian milbloggers reported advances south of Sosnove and east of Lyman, sustaining market optimism and stabilizing prices around 54-54%.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 50%5%
International support for Ukraine strengthened with commitments to defense guarantees if a peace deal is reached, reinforcing Ukrainian resolve and reducing market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by near-term dates.
Russian Forces Make Latest Advances in Donetsk Oblast Near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 66%11%
Russian forces reported new advances near Lyman, renewing market hopes for eventual capture despite ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
Ukrainian forces intensify counterattacks and clear Russian infiltrators near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 19%21%
Reports indicated Ukrainian troops cleared villages southwest of Lyman and repelled Russian assaults, maintaining control over key areas including the railroad station. This led to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
U.S. President Trump pushes for accelerated peace negotiations
December 31 drops to 55%7%
Trump’s intensified diplomatic push raised hopes of a negotiated settlement, which would count as a ‘Yes’ if Russia gained control, causing a modest rise in the December‑31 price from 62% to 55% as traders priced in a possible settlement outcome.
Russian forces intensify artillery and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Increased Russian bombardment aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses suggested preparations for renewed ground offensives, temporarily boosting market expectations for Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces conduct assaults near Lyman but face Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 54%12%
Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions near Lyman and the Siversk-Lyman highway, but Ukrainian forces continued to hold and counterattack, indicating a stalemate and limiting Russian advances toward capturing Lyman.
Sustained Russian attacks near Lyman met with Ukrainian resistance
June 30 dips to 6%4%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces successfully repelled many assaults, maintaining defensive positions and preventing Russian capture, contributing to market price declines for June 30 capture.
Russian forces intensify strikes near Lyman amid infiltration reports
December 31 drops to 57%10%
Geolocated footage showed Russian strikes near Lyman and infiltration attempts, indicating ongoing offensive efforts. This maintained some market support for a December 31 capture but also reflected a contested battlefield with Ukrainian resistance.
Russian infantry infiltrates Lyman, encirclement operation develops
December 31 jumps to 71%10%
Russian infantry continued infiltrating Lyman's central areas, with Guards 'West' units developing an operation to encircle the Ukrainian garrison from the flanks. This intensified fighting raised market hopes for a Russian capture.
Russian missile attack flattens Kyiv apartment building amid ongoing conflict
December 31 dips to 54%2%
A deadly Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment building killed 24 people, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the conflict and the challenges Ukraine faces, which may influence market perceptions of Russian military pressure including around Lyman.
Russian forces claim seizure of Pryshyb northwest of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 54%3%
On May 7, Russian sources claimed to have seized Pryshyb near Lyman, indicating localized advances but not full control of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining market uncertainty about full capture.
US-brokered peace talks resume amid ongoing front-line fighting
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Renewed peace talks in Abu Dhabi occurred alongside continued fighting and drone attacks, maintaining uncertainty about territorial control including Lyman, contributing to market price volatility.
Russian infiltration mission near Lyman fails to make confirmed advances
June 30 plunges to 19%30%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, reinforcing Ukrainian control and reducing market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman without confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 55%1%
On May 4, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but failed to make confirmed territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about control of the railroad station.
Russian infiltration missions near Lyman fail to yield advances
December 31 drops to 54%13%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in the Slovyansk direction near Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, leading to a market price decline from 67% to 54% for December 31.
Russian forces conduct infiltration mission near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
June 30 drops to 11%5%
Russian infiltration efforts near Lyman did not yield significant territorial gains, reflecting stalled offensive momentum and contributing to a decline in market confidence for capture by June 30.
Ukrainian drones hit Russian position on Donetska Railway near Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%3%
USF struck a Russian position on the Donetska Railway southeast of Lyman, showing Ukrainian ability to interdict supply lines and contributing to a price decline to 53 % on 6‑May.
Russian forces conduct infiltration near Lyman but no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions southeast of Lyman but ISW reported no confirmed territorial gains or control of the railroad station, indicating continued Ukrainian control and resistance.
Russian infiltration mission near Lyman fails to yield advances
December 31 drops to 58%9%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Slovyansk and Donetska Railway southeast of Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, reflecting stalled Russian progress and contributing to market uncertainty.
Sustained Ukrainian resistance limits Russian territorial gains near Lyman
December 31 drops to 53%10%
Continued Ukrainian defense and counterattacks around Lyman prevented Russian forces from capturing key infrastructure, causing market prices to decline further.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions southeast of Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions along the Donetska Railway southeast of Lyman after a Russian infiltration mission, indicating active Ukrainian defense and limiting Russian gains.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet to discuss Ukraine security and peace plan
May 31 dips to 3%4%
The meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy focused on security guarantees and territorial issues, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts that may delay or complicate Russian territorial gains including Lyman. Market prices for earlier capture dates declined further.
Russian forces claim advances northwest of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 plunges to 54%25%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances to the Pryshyb-Shandryholove road northwest of Lyman, but ISW could not verify significant territorial gains, reflecting continued contested control and uncertainty about Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces claim advance northwest of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 50%4%
A Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces advanced to the O0527 Pryshyb-Shandryholove road northwest of Lyman, indicating continued Russian efforts to capture the area. However, no confirmed major territorial gains were reported, reflecting persistent stalemate and contributing to market price declines for earlier capture dates.
Russian forces advance northwest of Lyman toward Pryshyb-Shandryholove road
December 31 jumps to 66%5%
Russian milbloggers reported advances to the O0527 Pryshyb-Shandryholove road northwest of Lyman, suggesting ongoing Russian efforts to encircle or approach Lyman, which influenced market perceptions of capture likelihood.
Russia scales up attacks on energy infrastructure
December 31 plunges to 57%23%
Renewed Russian strikes on energy facilities signaled a shift in strategy, potentially diverting resources away from ground offensives in the Lyman area.
Russia claims Ukrainian drones attacked Putin's residence in Novgorod
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Russia accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on Putin's official residence, prompting threats from Russian officials and hardening Russia's negotiating position. This disinformation effort may have influenced market perceptions of Russian gains.
ISW reports Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions west of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 drops to 55%11%
Russian drone operators and forces continued attacks near Lyman but Ukrainian forces maintained control, with ISW noting Russian infiltration missions that did not change territorial control. Market prices began to decline reflecting reduced confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman, Ukrainian defenders repel advances
December 31 dips to 55%2%
Russian forces conducted numerous assaults near Lyman, but Ukrainian defenders repelled multiple attempts to advance, maintaining control of the area and limiting Russian capture prospects, reflected in stable market prices.
Ukrainian Defenders Repel 13 Russian Assaults in the Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 57%10%
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 13 attempts by Russian invaders to advance in key settlements around Lyman, including Ozerne, Druzhliubivka, and Drobysheve.
Continued fighting near Lyman with no decisive Russian control reported
May 31 dips to 3%4%
Reports indicated ongoing clashes and no clear Russian capture of Lyman railroad station, contributing to a steady decline in market confidence for Russian control by May 31.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy in Florida to discuss security guarantees and peace plan
December 31 drops to 54%8%
U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met to discuss security guarantees and a 20-point peace plan, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution but with unresolved territorial issues, leading to mixed market reactions.
Russian diplomatic push stalls, focus returns to battlefield
May 31 dips to 9%2%
As diplomatic efforts stalled, Russian attention shifted back to front‑line operations, causing a modest rebound in the May 31 price from 11% to 9% as traders speculated a renewed push toward Lyman.
Russian forces continue infiltration and offensive operations near Lyman
December 31 drops to 58%7%
ISW reported ongoing Russian infiltration missions and offensive operations in the Lyman direction, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions, indicating a stalemate and limited Russian territorial gains, leading to market price declines in May.
Ukraine faces internal political pressure amid corruption scandal and external military threats
December 31 dips to 62%1%
President Zelenskyy confronted a major corruption scandal while Russia intensified attacks, increasing uncertainty about Ukraine's stability and resilience, which influenced market sentiment downward.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions southeast of Lyman after infiltration mission
December 31 dips to 54%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions near Lyman following a Russian infiltration mission, indicating ongoing contested control and active Ukrainian resistance. This maintained uncertainty and kept market prices moderate.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 52%21%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in the Slovyansk and Lyman directions but failed to make confirmed advances, maintaining a stalemate and contributing to market price declines for June 30 outcome.
Ukrainian forces recapture territory near Lyman
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports that Ukrainian troops reclaimed several square kilometres near Lyman reduced expectations of a Russian capture, pulling the May‑31 price down from 25% to 12% and the December‑31 price from 78% to 62%.
Russian forces claim limited gains in Donetsk but Ukrainian officials dispute
Kremlin video claiming capture of nearby settlements was met with Ukrainian denial, creating uncertainty and prompting a modest price dip for the May‑31 contract from 25% to 12% as traders reassessed capture prospects.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian oil depot in Volgograd
December 31 jumps to 78%5%
A high‑profile Ukrainian drone attack on Russian energy infrastructure heightened Russian retaliation risk, briefly raising the December‑31 price from 73% to 78% as analysts feared a broader Russian push.
Ukrainian counter‑attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia
May 31 dips to 11%1%
Successful Ukrainian counter‑offensives in nearby regions weakened Russian momentum, pushing the May 31 price down further from 12% to 11% as the prospect of capturing Lyman dimmed.
ISW reports no confirmed Russian capture of Lyman railroad station
December 31 rises to 64%3%
ISW assessments continued to show no confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station, reinforcing market doubts about imminent capture and contributing to price declines for short-term outcomes.
Small group clashes near Lyman reported
May 31 plunges to 1%24%
Pravda UK reported small-scale fighting near Lyman with Ukrainian formations infiltrating Russian positions, indicating ongoing but limited combat operations without significant territorial changes.
Russian Chief of General Staff claims Luhansk Oblast fully seized including Lyman area
December 31 plunges to 63%16%
Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70% of Lyman and the Luhansk Oblast, but ISW assessments found no evidence of Russian control over Lyman city or the railroad station. This discrepancy caused market uncertainty and price declines.
Russian forces intensify strikes on Ukrainian rail infrastructure including stations
December 31 rises to 65%4%
ISW reported increased Russian strikes on Ukrainian railway infrastructure in 2026, damaging multiple train stations and complicating logistics, reflecting ongoing contested control around Lyman and contributing to market uncertainty.
U.S. and European allies agree on multilayered security guarantees for Ukraine
A major diplomatic breakthrough in Paris signaled stronger Western support for Kyiv, lowering expectations that Russia could capture Lyman and causing the December‑31 price to fall from 79% to 60% over the week.
Russian sabotage campaign strains European security resources
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Ongoing Russian sabotage operations across Europe, including attacks on railways and infrastructure, aimed to undermine support for Ukraine and divert resources, reflecting Russia's hybrid warfare strategy and affecting market perceptions of conflict dynamics.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Lyman, preparing for counterattacks
December 31 drops to 68%13%
Ukrainian brigade reported targeting Russian logistics and preparing counterattacks in the Lyman direction, indicating active Ukrainian resistance and complicating Russian efforts to capture the area, which pressured market prices downward.
Russian forces attempt multiple breakthroughs near Lyman but repelled
December 31 drops to 65%14%
In late April, Russian forces launched several attacks near Lyman but Ukrainian defenders repelled these attempts, indicating no decisive Russian control of the area. This likely contributed to a market price decline from earlier highs.
ISW says Russia only massing for assault, no Lyman gains
December 31 surges to 79%18%
ISW’s follow‑up assessment clarified that Russian forces were only concentrating equipment and continuing strikes, not holding Lyman. The correction caused the “December 31” probability to tumble.
Russian forces prepare mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Russian forces concentrated equipment for a mechanized assault and continued strikes on Ukrainian logistics near Lyman, temporarily boosting market confidence. Price for December 31 outcome rose from 64% to 67%.
Russian forces shell Ukrainian positions northeast of Lyman amid mechanized assault preparations
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Russian forces concentrated equipment for mechanized assault near Lyman and shelled Ukrainian positions, indicating ongoing offensive efforts but no confirmed capture, causing market uncertainty.
European nations commit to troops in Ukraine as part of 'milestone' peace talks in Paris
December 31 jumps to 66%6%
European countries, including the UK and France, committed to sending troops to Ukraine to safeguard any future peace deal, signaling strong Western support for Ukraine and reducing market expectations of Russian territorial gains such as Lyman by year-end.
Ukrainian forces continue strikes and counterattacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 58%8%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions near Lyman and infiltration missions, indicating ongoing Ukrainian resistance and contested control, contributing to market uncertainty and price decline.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks toward Lyman but face strong Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 54%11%
Russian forces attempted several times to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman and surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian defenders repelled these assaults. This ongoing stalemate contributed to market price declines reflecting doubts about Russian capture by year-end.
ISW finds Russian claims of Lyman control contradicted by evidence; Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized
December 31 drops to 48%12%
ISW found no evidence Russian forces had seized any of Lyman, directly contradicting Russian claims that Gerasimov stated 70% of Lyman was seized. This major discrepancy between Russian claims and ISW assessment caused significant price declines across all outcomes.
ISW reports ongoing fighting near Lyman with Russian advances contested
June 30 plunges to 16%15%
ISW reported active fighting near Lyman with Russian forces advancing near surrounding settlements but Ukrainian forces holding tactical initiative. The contested nature of control around Lyman kept market prices fluctuating, reflecting uncertainty about a full Russian capture by May and June deadlines.
Russian forces pause offensive near Lyman amid stalled talks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports that Russian troops halted advances near Lyman as peace negotiations stalled led to a sharp decline in the May 31 price from 25% to 12%, reflecting reduced confidence in a near‑term capture.
Ukraine faces growing internal and external pressures amid stalled peace talks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports highlighted Ukraine's political and military challenges, including corruption scandals and stalled negotiations with Russia, increasing uncertainty about the conflict's trajectory and Russia's ability to capture Lyman. Market prices for near-term capture dates dropped sharply.
Euromaidan Press points out gap between Gerasimov’s Lyman claim and ISW data
December 31 drops to 55%8%
Euromaidan Press highlighted Gerasimov’s claim of 70 % control of Lyman contrasted with ISW’s lack of evidence. The report amplified skepticism among market participants, contributing to a further decline in the “December 31” odds from mid‑April’s 63 % to late‑April’s 55 %.
ISW assesses Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains
May 31 dips to 3%3%
ISW concluded that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than 17 March, and that Russian forces have lost ground since 1 March. This major assessment shift significantly impacted market pricing.
Russian Chief of General Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized, contradicted by ISW
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Russian official statements claimed significant control over Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of such gains, highlighting misinformation and contributing to market skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
June 30 drops to 16%12%
Ukraine’s allies announced progress on defense guarantees contingent on a peace deal, signaling international support for Ukraine’s defense and potentially limiting Russian advances. This development influenced market sentiment negatively for Russian capture prospects by mid-year.
Russia's Chief of General Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized — ISW finds no evidence
June 30 drops to 14%7%
Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed 70% of Lyman seized, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control, contradicting Russian claims. This significant discrepancy contributed to market price drops.
ISW finds Russian claims of Lyman gains inconsistent with evidence
May 31 plunges to 2%23%
ISW reported that Russian claims of 70% Lyman seizure were inconsistent with ISW's assessment of 0% Russian control, highlighting a significant gap between Russian claims and verified control. This contributed to market skepticism.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks forced Russia to divert resources, reducing pressure on Lyman and lowering market confidence in Russian capture by mid-2026.
Russian forces attempt multiple breakthroughs near Lyman amid ongoing clashes
December 31 drops to 54%9%
On April 22, Russian troops attempted several times to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman, but Ukrainian defenders repelled these attacks, maintaining control of the area. This contributed to a dip in market confidence for near-term capture.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro
June 30 plunges to 17%38%
A Russian drone strike killed civilians in Dnipro, escalating hostilities and complicating peace talks. This violence contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence for Russian capture by June 30 and May 31.
Zelenskyy says US gave June deadline for peace deal
May 31 drops to 12%13%
The announcement of a June deadline for a peace deal significantly reduced the likelihood of a military capture of Lyman by December, shifting market focus.
Russian MoD map shows Lyman station shaded red, later deemed inaccurate
December 31 drops to 61%6%
The Russian MoD published a map showing red shading over Lyman rail station, but ISW and DeepStateMap later declared the map erroneous. The mismatch caused a temporary dip (price from 67 % to 61 % on April 22).
ISW map shows Russian pull‑back from Lyman amid Ukrainian counter‑offensive
May 31 drops to 12%13%
ISW’s mid‑April map showed Russian forces pulling back from Lyman as Ukrainian counter‑attacks intensified, prompting the “May 31” price to tumble from 25 % to 12 % the same day.
ISW reports Russian claims of Lyman capture contradicted by evidence
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed 70% of Lyman seized, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control over the city, highlighting a disconnect between Russian statements and battlefield reality. This reduced market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russia's Chief of the General Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized — ISW finds no evidence
June 30 drops to 13%9%
General Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence to support this claim, contradicting Russian sources. This direct contradiction between Russian claims and ISW assessment likely caused the market's significant price decline from 80% to 13% for the June 30 outcome.
Russian drone attack kills 3 and wounds children in Ukraine
December 31 drops to 60%6%
A heavy Russian drone bombardment of Odesa killed civilians including children, highlighting ongoing Russian aggression and the humanitarian toll, which contributed to declining market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Lyman by year-end.
Gerasimov Claims 70% of Lyman Seized — ISW Finds No Evidence of Russian Control
Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed 70% of Lyman was seized, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control, causing a sharp price drop to 13%.
Russian forces increase small-group activity near Lyman but face Ukrainian strikes
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
Russian forces increased small-group operations and drone strikes near Lyman, but Ukrainian defenses remained effective, preventing significant Russian territorial gains and sustaining market skepticism about capture by June 30.
Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized but ISW finds no evidence of Russian control
December 31 drops to 63%5%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed significant control over Lyman, but ISW analysis found no evidence supporting Russian seizure of the city, highlighting ongoing misinformation and contested control, which contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russia Deploys Fresh Drone Crews to Lyman Direction to Target Ukrainian Logistics
June 30 drops to 22%6%
Ukrainian military spokespersons reported that Russian forces brought up fresh drone crews to the Lyman direction to target logistics, indicating sustained pressure but a shift to tactical attrition.
ISW says Gerasimov’s Lyman claim is unsupported by evidence
December 31 plunges to 61%19%
ISW publicly refuted Gerasimov’s 70 % claim, stating it had observed no Russian presence in Lyman. The rebuttal coincided with a sharp price drop from 80 % to 61 % on April 22.
Russian General Gerasimov exaggerates Russian gains in Lyman area
December 31 dips to 86%4%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed 70% seizure of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control in Lyman, highlighting misinformation and undermining market confidence in Russian capture by near dates.
Russian General Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized, but ISW finds no evidence
December 31 plunges to 67%19%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant Russian control over Lyman on April 21, but ISW and Ukrainian sources found no evidence of Russian forces seizing the city. This discrepancy highlighted Russian propaganda efforts and maintained market uncertainty about Russian capture prospects.
Gerasimov says 70 % of Lyman taken – ISW disputes claim
December 31 plunges to 66%20%
Gen. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman, a statement that sharply raised market odds that Russia would capture the Lyman rail station. ISW immediately refuted the claim, noting no evidence of Russian control, which caused the price to retreat sharply over the following days.
ISW Assesses Zero Tactically Significant Russian Gains in Spring-Summer 2026 Offensive
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than March 17, causing a price drop to 13%.
Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov exaggerates Russian gains near Lyman
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Gerasimov claimed significant Russian territorial gains near Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of such advances, undermining market confidence in imminent Russian capture of Lyman.
EU leaders announce concrete security guarantees for Ukraine
June 30 drops to 16%9%
The announcement of a detailed security package, including air‑defense support, lowered market confidence that Russia would succeed, driving the June‑30 price sharply lower from 25% to 16%.
Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman captured; ISW finds no evidence
June 30 plunges to 33%35%
Gerasimov publicly claimed Russia had seized 70 % of Lyman. ISW immediately refuted the claim, noting no evidence of Russian control. The stark contrast between the inflated Russian claim and ISW’s denial caused market participants to downgrade expectations, pulling the “June 30” price down from 68 % to 33 % over the next week.
Gerasimov repeats claim of 70 % control of Lyman
December 31 rises to 65%4%
Gerasimov again claimed 70 % of Lyman was seized; the repeated official optimism revived “December 31” odds, raising price back to 65 % on 27‑Apr.
Russian Chief of Staff claims partial seizure of Lyman disputed by ISW
December 31 jumps to 67%5%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control over Lyman, indicating ongoing contested fighting and limiting market confidence in a Russian capture.
Russian Claims of Advances Near Lyman Disputed by ISW
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Russian claims of advances near Lyman were contradicted by ISW analysis, which found no evidence of Russian control in Lyman itself, causing some market uncertainty and price decline.
Russian General Gerasimov asserts 70 % of Lyman captured
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Gen. Gerasimov publicly claimed that Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman. The claim was widely reported and sparked a sharp rise in the market’s “December 31” odds as traders interpreted it as a possible breakthrough.
ISW refutes Russian claims of Lyman territorial gains
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
ISW reported that Russian claims of seizing 70% of Lyman were contradicted by available evidence, with ISW assessing only 0% Russian control of Lyman. This directly contradicted Russian assertions and contributed to market price declines.
Russian Chief of General Staff claims partial seizure of Lyman
December 31 plunges to 64%15%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW observed no evidence of full control, indicating contested status and limiting market confidence in a near-term capture, contributing to price declines in late April.
Gerasimov repeats false claims of Russian control over Lyman
December 31 jumps to 66%5%
Russian General Gerasimov again claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of such control, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian advances.
ISW reports no evidence of Russian control in Lyman despite claims
December 31 plunges to 61%21%
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russian forces had not seized any part of Lyman despite Russian General Gerasimov's claims of 70% control. This discrepancy caused market confidence to wane, with prices declining from highs in March to lower levels by late April.
U.S.‑Russia high‑level talks resume, no immediate ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 19%15%
A diplomatic meeting in Abu Dhabi re‑established military‑to‑military dialogue but did not produce a ceasefire, keeping the prospect of Russian gains uncertain and causing the June 30 price to fall further.
Ukrainian brigade says Russian breakthrough at Lyman repelled
Ukrainian brigade reports heavy fighting and a failed Russian attempt to breach Lyman, reinforcing the view that Russia had not captured the town; market odds fell further.
Ukrainian drone strikes cause fires at Russian oil facilities amid rising energy prices
Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including refineries and export terminals, have increased, putting pressure on Russia’s war economy and potentially affecting military operations near Lyman.
Ukrainian forces counterattack and disrupt Russian positions near Lyman
December 31 drops to 67%13%
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks southeast and northwest of Lyman, clearing Russian infiltration groups and pushing back Russian forces. This defensive success reduced the likelihood of Russian capture in the near term, causing a market price decline.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery in Tuapse, demonstrating extended strike capabilities
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Ukraine's ability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory with drones showcased its growing military capabilities, potentially limiting Russian offensive momentum including in Lyman. This contributed to further declines in market prices for Russia capturing Lyman by May 31 and June 30.
ISW reports no evidence of Russian control over Lyman despite claims
December 31 drops to 68%13%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant advances and partial seizure of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian forces controlling the city or the railroad station. This discrepancy caused market prices to decline from highs.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
June 30 plunges to 27%31%
Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks disrupting Russian advances and forcing Russia to allocate resources defensively. This reduced the likelihood of a swift Russian capture of Lyman by earlier dates, reflected in falling market prices for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railroad infrastructure affecting Lyman logistics
December 31 drops to 63%5%
Ukrainian partisan attacks on railway substations in occupied Luhansk disrupted Russian logistics supporting operations near Lyman, complicating Russian efforts to capture the area and contributing to market price declines in April.
Ukrainian drones strike oil depot in Russia’s Volgograd region
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy sites highlighted Russia’s growing vulnerabilities, further eroding confidence in a successful Russian push toward Lyman and driving the May 31 price from 25% to 12% shortly after.
Ukrainian forces counterattack and clear Russian infiltration groups near Lyman
December 31 drops to 54%7%
Ukrainian forces pushed Russian infiltration groups from areas northwest and southeast of Lyman, including Oleksandrohrad and Yarova, indicating strong resistance and slowing Russian advances, which contributed to a market price decline.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 63%16%
Ukrainian partisans destroyed railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk Oblast, disrupting Russian logistics in the Lyman direction, indicating ongoing contested control and slowing Russian advances, contributing to market price declines in April.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway infrastructure affecting Lyman logistics
December 31 plunges to 59%21%
Ukrainian partisan attacks on railway substations disrupted Russian logistics in the Lyman direction, impeding Russian operational capabilities and contributing to stalled advances.
Ukrainian forces counterattack near Lyman disrupting Russian advances
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks southeast of Lyman and cleared Russian infiltration groups from nearby villages, maintaining control of key areas including the railroad station. This slowed Russian momentum and caused a market price decline from 79% to 61%.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil facilities amid rising energy prices
December 31 plunges to 64%15%
Ukraine's deep-strike drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure demonstrated growing military capabilities, pressuring Russia's war effort and complicating its offensive operations, contributing to market price declines.
Ukrainian forces conduct counterattacks in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Ukrainian forces advanced and counterattacked near Lyman, disrupting Russian positions and logistics, which dampened market optimism about Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian logistics near Lyman, disrupting supply lines
December 31 plunges to 67%20%
Ukrainian drone strikes targeted cargo trains and railway infrastructure near Luhansk and Lyman, damaging Russian logistics and hindering their offensive capabilities, which tempered market optimism about Russian capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway infrastructure affecting Lyman logistics
December 31 dips to 63%4%
Ukrainian partisan attacks on railway infrastructure near Luhansk disrupted Russian logistics in the Lyman direction, undermining Russian operational capabilities and reducing market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian railway logistics near Luhansk, impacting Russian operations near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%21%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed fuel cargo trains and damaged railway infrastructure near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations in the Lyman direction, contributing to market price decline.
Ukrainian drones strike logistics near Lyman disrupting Russian supply lines
December 31 plunges to 62%17%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes on cargo trains carrying fuel near occupied Luhansk City, damaging railway infrastructure and disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations near Lyman.
Ukrainian forces advance in Slovyansk-Lyman area amid Russian troop buildup
December 31 drops to 65%14%
Ukrainian forces made advances in the Slovyansk-Lyman tactical area while Russian forces prepared reinforcements and fresh troops for southeastern Ukraine. ISW reported Russian attempts to advance near Lyman but no confirmed capture, sustaining market skepticism about a Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian drones strike railway infrastructure near Lyman, disrupting Russian logistics
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes on cargo trains carrying fuel at railway stations near occupied Luhansk City, about 99 km from the frontline, damaging Russian logistics supporting Lyman operations. This hindered Russian offensive capabilities and contributed to a market price decline from 79% to 61% Yes for December 31.
Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 62%19%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes on cargo trains and railway infrastructure near occupied Luhansk City, impacting Russian supply lines supporting Lyman operations and reducing Russian offensive momentum.
Ukrainian drones hit fuel trains near Luhansk, hurting Russian logistics
December 31 plunges to 61%19%
Ukrainian drones struck cargo trains and fuel tankers near Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics feeding the Lyman front. The strike heightened expectations that Russian advances would stall, pulling the market down.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway transformer in occupied Luhansk
June 30 plunges to 39%30%
Atesh reported burning a railway transformer in occupied Luhansk, disrupting logistics for the Lyman axis. The logistics setback lowered confidence in a rapid capture, pushing the “June 30” price down to 39 % on 1‑Apr.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics near Luhansk and Lyman areas
December 31 drops to 61%6%
On April 16, Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces struck cargo trains carrying fuel near occupied Luhansk and damaged Russian logistics near Lyman, disrupting Russian supply lines and weakening their offensive capabilities, contributing to market price declines.
Ukrainian drones strike railway fuel trains near Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics to Lyman
December 31 dips to 64%4%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed fuel tankers and damaged railway infrastructure near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations in the Lyman direction. This logistical disruption likely hindered Russian offensive capabilities, contributing to market price declines.
Ukrainian forces conduct strikes disrupting Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%17%
Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian logistics and fuel trains near Luhansk and Lyman, hampering Russian supply lines and indicating Ukrainian resistance, contributing to market price declines in April.
Ukrainian drone strikes damage Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 82%5%
Ukrainian Security Service reported drone strikes on cargo trains and railway infrastructure near Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics supporting forces around Lyman, which tempered market optimism about Russian advances.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian fuel trains near Luhansk, disrupting logistics
December 31 plunges to 61%20%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces struck cargo trains carrying fuel near occupied Luhansk City, damaging Russian logistics supporting operations near Lyman, weakening Russian offensive capabilities.
Ukrainian forces advance and counterattack in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 66%13%
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks southeast of Lyman and cleared Russian infiltration groups from nearby areas, reducing confidence in Russian capture of Lyman. This corresponded with a price decline from 79% to 66% for the December 31 outcome.
Ukrainian counter‑offensive stalls Russian advance near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 37%34%
Ukrainian reports of successful defensive actions slowed Russian momentum, leading to a noticeable drop in the June‑30 price as market participants reassessed short‑term capture odds.
Russian mechanized assault near Lyman repelled
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
ISW reported a mechanized Russian assault attempt near Lyman that was repelled, contributing to a moderate dip in “December 31” odds.
Russian Defense Minister outlines new Donetsk offensive plans
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Belousov’s statements about accelerating the tempo of Russian offensives in Donetsk revived fears of a Lyman capture, causing a brief rebound in the December‑31 price from 68% to 73%.
Ukraine intensifies drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, signaling growing military capabilities
June 30 drops to 17%11%
Ukraine's increased drone attacks deep inside Russia demonstrated enhanced military reach, suggesting continued Ukrainian resilience and complicating Russian territorial gains including Lyman, contributing to market price declines.
Market reacts to reports of stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks and ongoing fighting
December 31 plunges to 42%15%
Reports indicated no breakthrough in peace negotiations, with both sides entrenched and fighting continuing. This uncertainty contributed to a market price trough reflecting doubts about imminent Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange attacks near Lyman during Orthodox Easter ceasefire
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Despite a unilateral ceasefire, both sides accused each other of violations with continued attacks near Lyman, indicating persistent conflict and no decisive control change, which contributed to market uncertainty and price decline.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia
June 30 plunges to 21%30%
Ukrainian counter-offensive operations forced Russia to divert resources, reducing the immediate threat to the Lyman sector and causing a sharp drop in the market price for a June 30 resolution.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power plants cause severe electricity shortages
June 30 plunges to 22%29%
Russia's intensified attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure increased pressure on Ukraine but did not translate into immediate territorial gains such as capturing Lyman. Market prices for later capture dates dropped significantly, reflecting uncertainty about Russia's ability to secure Lyman soon.
Russian forces fail to make significant advances near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 64%16%
Russian military shifted focus to other fronts after struggling to advance on Slovyansk and Lyman, leading to decreased market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman railroad station.
U.S. and Russia re‑establish high‑level military dialogue
December 31 drops to 61%5%
The diplomatic thaw reduced immediate expectations of a Russian offensive, contributing to a dip in the December 31 price from 66% to 61% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a rapid capture.
U.S.‑backed peace talks gain momentum in Paris
June 30 plunges to 25%43%
AP covered a major Paris meeting where 27 European nations pledged security guarantees for Ukraine, signaling a possible diplomatic path that reduced expectations of a Russian capture of Lyman, pushing the June‑30 price down from 68% to 25%.
ISW: Russian strikes around Lyman, no territorial gain
ISW noted heavy Russian strikes around Lyman but no advance; the market’s “December 31” odds remained high but began to drift downward later in April.
Ukrainian forces advance in central Yampil southeast of Lyman
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Geolocated footage published on April 10 showed Ukrainian advances in central Yampil, southeast of Lyman, indicating ongoing Ukrainian pressure and resistance that limited Russian territorial gains near Lyman, influencing market prices downward.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
June 30 plunges to 22%30%
Ukraine’s allies made progress on defense guarantees to deter future Russian attacks if a peace deal is struck, strengthening Ukraine’s position and reducing market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by mid-2026.
Small group clashes and high activity reported near Lyman amid forested terrain
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Fierce small unit engagements and infiltration attempts by Ukrainian forces near Lyman's forested outskirts indicated ongoing contested control, maintaining uncertainty and lowering market confidence.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions southeast of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 79%2%
Ukrainian advances and strikes on Russian positions near Lyman indicated strong resistance, limiting Russian territorial gains and causing market confidence in Russian capture to decline.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Russia launched drones into Ukraine, with wreckage falling on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, confirming Russian military operations in the area and affecting market perception of Russian advances.
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish military-to-military dialogue after New START expires
June 30 drops to 17%10%
Following the expiration of the New START nuclear arms treaty, the U.S. and Russia agreed to resume high-level military talks. This diplomatic development may influence future conflict dynamics.
Russian forces increase troop transfers and attacks near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 87%8%
Russian forces reportedly transferred troops and artillery to the Lyman direction and launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages, indicating preparation for future offensives. This heightened activity temporarily increased market optimism for Russian capture by December 31.
Ukraine's allies report progress on defense guarantees if peace deal is struck
December 31 drops to 67%12%
Progress in peace talks and security guarantees led to a decline in the probability of a Russian military capture of Lyman, as a negotiated settlement became more likely.
Ukrainian counterattack stalls Russian push near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 65%16%
Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive that halted Russian advances around Lyman, leading to a sharp drop in the market’s confidence that Russia would capture the station by year‑end.
Russia intensifies attacks on Ukraine's railway infrastructure including near Lyman
December 31 dips to 60%4%
In April 2026, Russia escalated attacks on Ukrainian railway infrastructure, including areas near Lyman, aiming to disrupt logistics and support military advances, impacting market perceptions of Russian operational capabilities.
Ukrainian counteroffensive slows Russian progress near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive reducing Russian territorial gains near Lyman caused a market price drop from 79% to 61% for the December 31 outcome, reflecting decreased confidence in Russia capturing the station by year-end.
Russian Forces Advance Near Hryshyne and Kotlyne in Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces made advances near Hryshyne and Kotlyne, close to Lyman, suggesting pressure on Ukrainian defenses and potential for further Russian territorial gains, supporting market optimism.
ISW reports Russian forces maintain pressure but fail to advance near Lyman
December 31 drops to 60%8%
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman but did not make significant advances, facing strong Ukrainian resistance. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russian capture by both December 31 and June 30.
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian regiment and improve tactical position near Lyman
December 31 drops to 59%12%
Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps and Defense Intelligence Directorate destroyed a Russian regiment and captured troops near Lyman, limiting Russian maneuverability and improving Ukrainian positions, lowering Russian capture chances.
Ukrainian General Staff logs Russian artillery strikes near Lyman
December 31 drops to 61%6%
The General Staff documented Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions near Lyman, indicating ongoing fighting but no capture, prompting a price drop to 61 % on 22‑Apr.
Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian plans to strike railway and logistics targets
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Russian forces plan to target railway and logistics infrastructure in spring and summer 2026, indicating a strategic focus on disrupting Ukrainian supply lines near Lyman, affecting the battle dynamics and market sentiment.
ISW map shows Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 67%12%
The Institute for the Study of War updated its map showing Russian forces advancing toward Lyman, supporting the market's initial bullish sentiment.
Ukrainian President Zelensky reports best frontline situation in 10 months, Russian attacks near Lyman continue
December 31 drops to 68%13%
Zelensky stated Ukrainian intelligence showed the frontline was the best in 10 months, with ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman but no breakthroughs. This bolstered confidence in Ukrainian defense and contributed to market price declines for Russian capture.
Russian drone and missile barrage hits Ukrainian energy grid
June 30 plunges to 19%15%
A massive Russian strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure shifted focus away from Lyman, prompting traders to lower the June 30 price from 34% to 19% as the war’s broader dynamics dominated market sentiment.
Russian drone attack on Krasnodar railway station causes temporary flight restrictions
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russia launched drones into Ukraine, with wreckage falling on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, causing temporary flight restrictions and highlighting Russian targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure.
Russian drone and missile attacks intensify on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
December 31 plunges to 60%20%
Russia launched large-scale drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine's energy grid, aiming to weaken Ukrainian resistance and influence peace negotiations, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 jumps to 65%5%
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
ISW notes largest Russian motorcycle assault near Lyman in 2026
Ukrainian brigade reported the largest motorcycle assault by Russian forces in the Lyman direction since early 2026, indicating intensified Russian efforts but no confirmed capture.
ISW reports ongoing fighting near Lyman with contested advances
ISW reported Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages but made no confirmed advances, with Ukrainian forces maintaining tactical initiative, sustaining market uncertainty about Russian capture.
Ukrainian advances in eastern Lyman limit Russian offensive tempo
December 31 drops to 79%11%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in eastern Lyman, while Russian forces reduced offensive operations and focused on infiltration, maintaining contested control and limiting Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian counterattacks in Donetsk region undermine Russian plans including near Lyman
December 31 drops to 59%7%
ISW reported Ukrainian forces achieved significant tactical gains in Donetsk, forcing Russian redeployment and complicating Russian offensives near Lyman, reducing likelihood of Russian capture soon.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage Russian railroad logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 82%5%
Ukrainian partisan groups disabled critical railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk Oblast, disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations in the Lyman direction. This hindered Russian offensive capabilities and likely reduced market confidence in a swift Russian capture.
ISW: Russia unprepared for Lyman offensive amid Kremlin crackdown
June 30 plunges to 18%58%
ISW analysis of a Kremlin internal crackdown highlighted that Russia had not completed preparations for a Lyman offensive, suggesting a slowdown in Russian momentum. The “June 30” price dropped sharply from 76 % to 18 % over the following week.
Russian spring-summer offensive preparations and attacks near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces undertook preparations and launched assaults near Lyman, including strikes on logistics and river crossings to isolate Ukrainian forces. Despite these efforts, ISW assessed that Russian forces failed to make tactically significant advances, maintaining Ukrainian control over Lyman and its railroad station, which kept market prices high but uncertain.
Russian military bloggers criticize Kremlin over war setbacks including Lyman offensive delays
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Russian military bloggers publicly criticized Kremlin and military command for systemic problems and slow progress, including delays in capturing Lyman, signaling internal issues and reducing market confidence.
ISW reports Kremlin crackdown amid Russian military setbacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 66%13%
ISW noted increased internal criticism and repression in Russia due to military failures, including stalled preparations for an assault on Lyman. This indicated Russian difficulties and lowered market confidence in a near-term capture.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
Putin publicly stated Russia would seek to extend territorial gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail, signaling intent to continue offensives including around Lyman. This statement briefly supported market optimism for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian spring offensive preparations and attacks near Lyman reported by ISW
December 31 drops to 80%7%
ISW noted Russian forces preparing for a spring-summer offensive with attacks near Lyman, but also assessed that Russian forces were unlikely to make significant advances without seizing Lyman first, reflecting ongoing fighting and limited progress.
Russian spring-summer offensive begins with attacks near Lyman and Slovyansk
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Russian forces launched mechanized and motorized assaults in the Lyman direction as part of their spring-summer offensive, but Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area, limiting Russian advances. This sustained fighting kept market prices for December 31 high but volatile.
ISW: Russian mechanized assault near Lyman fails to make gains
December 31 plunges to 48%32%
ISW reported a failed Russian mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, confirming no territorial gain. The negative battlefield assessment helped push the market lower after earlier optimism.
Ukraine repels largest Russian mechanized breakthrough attempt near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On March 21, Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps repelled a major Russian mechanized offensive involving over 500 troops and numerous armored vehicles on the Lyman-Borova axis, inflicting significant losses and halting Russian advances. This demonstrated Ukrainian defensive resilience and stalled Russian efforts to capture Lyman, causing a sharp increase in market confidence for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces advance toward Lyman in Kharkiv Oblast
December 31 dips to 78%4%
Russian forces launched an offensive in the Lyman direction, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses and initially boosting market confidence in a Russian capture.
Russian battalion-sized assault launched in Lyman direction
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army conducted a large mechanized assault near Lyman, aiming to set conditions for further advances on Slovyansk. This intensified offensive raised market expectations for Russian capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian forces repel major Russian mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 drops to 77%9%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units successfully repelled a large Russian assault involving over twenty vehicles near Lyman, inflicting heavy losses and preventing Russian advances. This led to a market price trough at 77% for December 31, reflecting doubts about Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel large Russian mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 drops to 78%8%
On March 19-20, Ukrainian forces repelled a regiment-sized Russian mechanized assault near Lyman, destroying many Russian vehicles and forcing retreats. This demonstrated Ukrainian control and reduced market confidence in near-term Russian capture, reflected in price fluctuations.
Russian advances stall amid Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports indicated that Russian forces faced stiff Ukrainian resistance near Lyman, causing market prices to decline as the likelihood of Russian capture by May 31 diminished significantly.
Ukrainian observer says Russia repelled 18 attacks around Lyman
December 31 drops to 77%11%
Mashovets reported that Russian forces were repelled in a 18‑attack assault in the Lyman direction, suggesting a slowdown and coinciding with the price trough of 77 % on 20‑Mar.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and other units repelled Russian attacks involving more than twenty enemy vehicles, disrupting Russian attempts to capture Lyman and causing Russian troops to retreat or fail to reach the front line.
Ukrainian counterattacks stall Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 77%10%
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks northwest of Lyman, striking Russian-occupied buildings and halting Russian progress. This reduced market confidence in Russian capture, causing a price trough.
Ukrainian forces repel multiple Russian attacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 80%8%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units repelled 18 Russian attacks in the Lyman direction, destroying equipment and forcing some Russian troops to retreat, dampening market optimism for Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attack involving over twenty vehicles in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units successfully repelled a large Russian armored assault in the Lyman sector, inflicting heavy losses and forcing some Russian troops to retreat. This demonstrated Ukrainian defensive strength and limited Russian advances, causing some market price decline.
Russian 1st Guards Tank Army launches mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%2%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, signaling the start of the anticipated spring-summer offensive. Despite heavy personnel and equipment commitment, ISW assessed that Russian forces were unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt, including Lyman, in 2026.
Russia launches battalion-scale assault towards Lyman with mechanized forces
UK Defense Intelligence reported a large Russian mechanized assault near Lyman involving 500 personnel and up to 100 vehicles, signaling increased Russian efforts to capture the area, which supported high market prices in March.
Renewed Russian mechanized assaults around Lyman meet heavy resistance
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian tanks returned to the Lyman area after a year in hiding, but Ukrainian forces inflicted significant losses, limiting Russian gains. This contributed to market stabilization with prices holding near peak levels for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces launch battalion-sized mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with a battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction, signaling a focused effort to advance in this strategic area. This raised market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian mechanized assault in Lyman direction repelled by Ukrainian forces
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Russian forces conducted a battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, marking the start of their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled the attack, demonstrating strong defense and limiting Russian advances, which tempered market optimism.
Peace talks stall as parties remain divided
June 30 drops to 55%13%
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine failed to produce a breakthrough, leading to a decline in the perceived likelihood of a near-term negotiated settlement for the territory.
Ukrainian drone strikes target Russian vehicles near Lyman
December 31 drops to 77%10%
Ukrainian drone operations intensified around Lyman in March 2026, targeting Russian vehicles and disrupting advances. This contributed to a market price dip as Russian progress appeared contested.
Russian battalion-scale assault launched near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 87%9%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a near battalion-sized mechanized assault with over 500 personnel and armored vehicles towards Lyman, signaling a major offensive push. This led to a spike in market confidence for Russian capture.
Russia launches battalion‑size assault on Lyman, Ukraine repels it
December 31 rises to 88%3%
UK Defence Intelligence reported a near‑battalion‑scale mechanised assault of ~500 Russian troops towards Lyman, which was subsequently repelled by Ukrainian forces. The news of a fresh large‑scale attack raised expectations of a Russian capture, nudging the “December 31” price up to a late‑March peak of 88 %.
Ukrainian forces repel major Russian assault in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 77%11%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units repelled a large Russian attack involving over twenty vehicles near Lyman, inflicting heavy losses and forcing some Russian troops to retreat, dampening market optimism about Russian capture.
Russian forces launch near battalion-size assault towards Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%3%
On March 19, 2026, Russian forces launched a mechanized assault of about 500 personnel and up to 100 vehicles towards Lyman, indicating intensified Russian efforts to capture the city, which temporarily increased market confidence in a December 31 capture.
Ukrainian drone strikes and advances near Lyman disrupt Russian operations
December 31 dips to 87%1%
Ukrainian forces increased drone strikes targeting Russian artillery and logistics near Lyman, and geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances in the area, countering Russian assaults and affecting market sentiment by slightly reducing confidence in Russian capture.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia to disrupt Russian advances
June 30 plunges to 52%16%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks in key regions forced Russia to divert resources, complicating its offensive plans including the push towards Lyman. This development led to a notable decline in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by June 30 and December 31.
Russian spring-summer offensive begins with attacks near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 88%8%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults near Lyman and Borova between March 17-19 as part of their spring-summer offensive. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks involving over twenty enemy vehicles, inflicting heavy losses and preventing Russian advances toward Lyman's outskirts.
Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault launched in Lyman direction
Russian forces conducted a battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault near Lyman, marking the start of their spring-summer offensive. Ukrainian forces reported repelling attacks, indicating fierce fighting but no decisive Russian control. This sustained offensive activity kept market optimism high but uncertain.
Russian military intensifies attacks on Ukrainian logistics hubs including Lyman area
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Russian forces escalated artillery barrages and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian defenses near Lyman, aiming to weaken resistance ahead of ground offensives, which supported market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 drops to 78%9%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks forced Russia to divert resources from offensive operations, reducing the likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman in the near term and causing a market price decline.
Russian General Gerasimov exaggerates territorial gains including Lyman claims
December 31 dips to 86%1%
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control, highlighting misinformation that affected market confidence.
Russian General Gerasimov Exaggerates Purported Battlefield Gains in Lyman Direction
June 30 plunges to 51%17%
Russian Army General Valery Gerasimov reiterated claims that Russian forces control over half of Lyman, which analysts assessed as an exaggeration to create a false impression of rapid advances.
Ukrainian brigade reports no Russian presence in Lyman despite Gerasimov's claims
December 31 drops to 82%5%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported no Russian presence in Lyman, contradicting Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov's claims of over half the city being controlled by Russia. This discrepancy undermined confidence in Russian capture and caused market price declines.
ISW reports Russian General Staff exaggerates battlefield gains near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%8%
ISW reported that Russian claims of capturing over half of Lyman were false, with no observed Russian presence since late February. This undermined confidence in Russian advances and led to a market price decline.
ISW exposes Gerasimov's inflated battlefield claims
December 31 plunges to 60%27%
ISW reported that General Valery Gerasimov claimed advances near Lyman, Sloviansk, and Kostyantynivka, but frontline data showed no Russian presence in Lyman and minimal control in other areas, contributing to market skepticism.
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson states no Russian presence in Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%1%
On March 17, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported no Russian presence in Lyman, indicating Ukrainian forces likely cleared contested parts of the town. This undermined market expectations for Russian capture by June 30 and tempered enthusiasm for December 31 capture, though the latter remained probable.
Ukrainian forces clear contested parts of Lyman, Russian claims exaggerated
December 31 rises to 90%3%
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated no Russian presence in parts of Lyman, indicating Ukrainian control of contested areas, while Russian General Gerasimov exaggerated Russian gains, affecting market confidence positively for Ukrainian defense.
Russian forces continue assaults near Lyman amid heavy fighting
Reports from mid-March indicate ongoing Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman, with heavy combat engagements and significant losses on both sides. This sustained pressure likely maintained high market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
Russian General Staff chief exaggerates Russian gains near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov claimed significant Russian advances near Lyman and other areas, asserting control over large portions of Lyman. However, ISW analysis contradicted these claims, showing only minimal Russian presence. This dissonance contributed to market volatility and skepticism about Russian capture prospects by mid-2026.
Gerasimov repeats sweeping claim of major gains, including Lyman progress
December 31 jumps to 81%14%
Gerasimov’s March 16 speech again inflated Russian gains, briefly lifting market confidence (price rose from 67 % to 81 % by March 28).
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if talks fail
Putin’s statement that Russia would push to solidify territorial gains, including Lyman, if peace talks stalled reinforced market belief in a Russian capture, keeping the December 31 price above 80%.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in Paris
June 30 plunges to 39%28%
The announcement of a major security‑guarantee package for Ukraine signaled stronger Western support, lowering expectations that Russia could capture Lyman and pulling the June 30 price down from 67% to 39% over the following weeks.
Russian attacks near Lyman fail to change control of terrain
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Despite Russian attacks near Lyman and infiltration missions, ISW assessed that these did not result in changes to control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area, tempering market optimism.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Despite increased Russian assaults near Lyman, Ukrainian forces held positions, preventing Russian capture of the railroad station and causing market prices to stabilize at high but uncertain levels.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pursues arms deals amid intensified Russian strikes
December 31 drops to 79%9%
President Zelenskyy sought more arms and air defense systems from allies as Russia increased drone and missile strikes, including near Lyman. Ukrainian counterattacks and improved defense capabilities tempered Russian advances, causing some market price volatility.
ISW highlights Ukrainian advances and disruption of Russian offensive plans
June 30 plunges to 54%18%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces liberated over 400 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, disrupting Russia's anticipated spring-summer 2026 offensive toward Pokrovsk and Lyman. This demonstrated Ukrainian operational momentum, lowering the market's probability of Russian capture by June 30.
Heavy combat engagements reported near Lyman with Russian forces attempting advances
December 31 drops to 78%9%
Russian forces conducted numerous attacks and airstrikes near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces repelled attempts to improve Russian positions. The intense fighting maintained market uncertainty, with prices stabilizing after initial gains.
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions near Lyman without territorial gains
December 31 rises to 87%2%
ISW assessed that Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but did not change control of terrain, tempering market enthusiasm and stabilizing prices around 87%.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman without significant territorial gains
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions near Lyman after Russian infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, tempering market optimism about Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian infiltration missions near Lyman met with Ukrainian strikes
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but were struck by Ukrainian forces, limiting territorial gains and causing market price to plateau.
Russian attacks repelled in Lyman sector with significant losses
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack involving over twenty enemy vehicles in the Lyman direction, destroying equipment and forcing Russian troops to retreat, demonstrating strong Ukrainian defense and limiting Russian advances.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but failed to make confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces repelled assaults, maintaining control and causing market confidence to stabilize at a high level but without further increase.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attack involving over twenty vehicles near Lyman
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units successfully repelled a significant Russian assault near Lyman, disrupting Russian plans and causing a decline in market confidence for a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian MoD claims capture of Yarova near Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%3%
On March 5 the Russian MoD claimed seizure of Yarova, a settlement north‑west of Lyman. Although not corroborated by ISW, the announcement briefly lifted market optimism, contributing to a small rise in the “December 31” price from 78 % to 81 % in late March.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Yarova near Lyman
December 31 rises to 86%1%
On March 5, 2026, Russian MoD claimed Russian forces seized Yarova northwest of Lyman, suggesting progress in the Lyman area. This bolstered market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end, reflected in sustained high prices.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian armored column in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 81%6%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units destroyed Russian armored vehicles and repelled attacks, dampening Russian advance prospects and causing market price to stabilize.
Russian forces conduct attacks around Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Lyman while Ukrainian forces counterattacked, resulting in a stalemate with no decisive Russian control over Lyman, sustaining market uncertainty.
Russia readies new offensives as Iran war pressures Ukraine
December 31 rises to 87%1%
With U.S.-brokered peace talks on hold due to the Middle East conflict, Russian President Putin is expected to expand military gains, increasing market concern about Russian offensive operations.
Russia launches missile and drone attacks into Ukraine; drone wreckage hits railway station
Russia launched two missiles and 60 drones into Ukraine overnight into Tuesday morning. One missile and 8 drones impacted across five locations. Drone wreckage fell on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, according to the Krasnodar region's operational headquarters.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but make no significant gains
ISW reported Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not advance, indicating stalled progress and tempering market expectations for a quick capture.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk region
Ukraine launched counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region, forcing Russia to 'choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere,' potentially spoiling Russian offensive plans.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman without confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%2%
On March 3-4, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages but did not make confirmed advances. This maintained high market confidence but indicated a stalemate, keeping prices near their peak for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Lyman but did not advance, as reported by ISW. This indicated continued fighting but no territorial gains, sustaining uncertainty about Russian capture prospects and stabilizing market prices.
Ukrainian counter‑attacks stall Russian advance near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Reports of successful Ukrainian counter‑attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia limited Russian manpower, causing a modest pull‑back in market confidence and a dip from 87% to 79% for the December‑31 outcome.
Russia claims territorial gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia
June 30 rises to 69%4%
Russian military leadership reported taking control of additional settlements, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines and boosting market expectations for a Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces advance near villages in Donetsk Oblast including near Lyman
On March 3, DeepState reported Russian advances near villages in Donetsk Oblast, including areas close to Lyman, indicating continued Russian offensive pressure. This supported market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
Russian military steps up artillery barrage and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine
Russian forces intensified bombardment and drone attacks in eastern regions, including near Lyman, as part of preparation for potential ground offensives. This military escalation raised concerns about Russian territorial gains.
Russian forces advance near Donetsk Oblast villages including near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian invasion forces advanced near villages in Donetsk Oblast close to Lyman, as reported by DeepStateMap on March 3. This supported continued market optimism for Russian capture of Lyman by December 31.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Ukraine intensified counteroffensives in key regions to disrupt Russian advances, forcing Russia to allocate resources defensively. This development reduced market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Lyman by year-end.
Russian Defense Minister outlines plans for further advances in Donetsk
June 30 jumps to 76%8%
Defense Minister Belousov's explicit declaration of plans for a quick push into Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk reinforced expectations of a Russian breakthrough.
U.S.-brokered peace talks resume in Abu Dhabi amid Lyman fighting
June 30 drops to 65%6%
The restart of U.S.-brokered negotiations introduced uncertainty about Russian gains, causing a modest pullback in the June 30 price from 71% to 65% as traders weighed diplomatic prospects against battlefield momentum.
ISW reports intensified Russian artillery strikes near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War noted a surge in artillery and drone attacks around Lyman, suggesting a preparation for a ground offensive. Traders saw this as increasing the likelihood of Russia capturing the station, pushing the December 31 price up.
ISW map shows contested control in Lyman tactical area
December 31 rises to 88%1%
On March 2, ISW published an assessed control of terrain map for the Lyman tactical area, showing ongoing contestation but no confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station. This maintained market uncertainty but supported the high probability for December 31 capture.
Russian forces claim capture of Myrnohrad and advance toward Lyman
Kremlin video claimed control of nearby settlements, reinforcing expectations of a push toward Lyman and sustaining high prices for the December‑31 outcome.
Ukrainian mil‑bloggers report Russian offensive stalling near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%9%
A cluster of Ukrainian mil‑blog posts suggested Russian attacks had stalled near Lyman, which helped reverse the early‑March rally (price fell from 88 % to 79 %).
U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi show progress but territorial disputes remain
December 31 drops to 79%8%
U.S.-brokered talks involving Russia and Ukraine made progress on security guarantees but failed to resolve key territorial issues, maintaining uncertainty about the conflict's outcome and impacting market prices downward.
ISW reports ongoing fierce fighting near Lyman with Russian priority on offensive
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Institute for the Study of War highlighted intense combat near Lyman with Russian forces prioritizing the city for future offensives, sustaining market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk region
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Ukraine launched counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region, forcing Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating resources for offensive operations elsewhere, potentially spoiling anticipated Russian offensives.
U.S.-brokered peace talks stall amid conflicting territorial demands
June 30 plunges to 55%15%
Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine showed no breakthrough, with Russia demanding recognition of seized territories and Ukraine rejecting withdrawals. The stalemate contributed to uncertainty about the timing of Russian territorial gains, tempering market optimism for earlier capture dates.
Russian official threatens Zelenskyy after alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin residence
Following claims of a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian presidential residence, Russian officials issued threats against Ukraine's leadership, signaling potential escalation. This heightened tensions and influenced market perceptions of conflict intensity near contested areas like Lyman.
Russian drone strike kills civilians in Dnipro amid peace talks
December 31 dips to 87%1%
A Russian drone strike killed at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro, Ukraine, hours after Zelenskyy announced upcoming peace talks. The attack underscored ongoing hostilities despite diplomatic efforts, affecting market sentiment on Russian advances.
Zelenskyy says trilateral talks ended constructively and more are possible next week
December 31 drops to 81%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described recent peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US as constructive, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution but with unresolved territorial issues, impacting market optimism about Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
Russia uses nuclear-capable missile in 'massive strike' on Ukraine
Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including the use of a nuclear-capable missile system, demonstrating military strength and escalating the conflict, which influenced market perceptions of Russia's offensive capabilities near Lyman.
Russian drone attack claimed on Putin’s residence escalates tensions
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Russia claimed Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin’s residence, leading to hawkish threats from Russian officials and hardening of Russia’s negotiating stance. This increased perceived risk of intensified conflict, supporting higher market prices for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but fail to advance
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and multiple surrounding settlements but did not advance, indicating stalled offensive efforts. This contributed to market price stabilization and slight declines.
Russian forces continue assaults near Lyman but fail to secure key positions
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but did not establish control over Lyman itself. This continued failure to capture Lyman contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman without territorial gains
ISW reported continued Russian attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas on February 27-28, with no significant advances or capture of the town, maintaining uncertainty about the outcome and sustaining market interest.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman without confirmed advances
ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas but no confirmed territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about control of the Lyman railroad station. Market prices remained high but showed some volatility.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but no confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about control of the railroad station. Market prices remained high but showed some volatility.
ISW: Russian attacks near Lyman without gain
Early in the window, ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman but no territorial change, setting a baseline “yes” probability of roughly 27 % on Feb 19.
U.S.-led peace talks show progress but remain fragile amid Russian military pressure
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Peace negotiations hosted by U.S. President Trump brought Russia and Ukraine closer to a deal, boosting market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by year-end, though divisions remained on key issues.
Russian forces conduct assaults near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas, with unconfirmed claims of advances. However, ISW and geolocated footage indicated Ukrainian control of key positions, suggesting no confirmed Russian capture of Lyman or its railroad station at this time. This contributed to initial market uncertainty and a rise in price reflecting increased conflict intensity.
ISW reports Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv near Lyman; no confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv near Lyman, Staryi Karavan, Rai-Oleksandrivka, Kryva Luka, and Fedorivka Druha, but ISW found no confirmed advances. This continued to cast doubt on Russian claims of Lyman capture.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and its vicinity on February 26-27, 2026, signaling an intensified offensive in the area. This increased the market's confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by December 31, reflected in a sharp price rise from 27% to 86%.
Constructive trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi involving US, Russia, Ukraine
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Two days of talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a ceasefire and peace deal, which tempered market expectations for Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and adjacent locations, indicating active efforts to advance in the Lyman sector. This increased military activity raised market confidence in a possible Russian capture of Lyman by December 31, 2025.
Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps reports Russian communication issues and Ukrainian territorial gains near Lyman
Ukrainian commander Andriy Biletsky stated that Starlink outages reduced Russian drone effectiveness by 20-40%, enabling Ukrainian forces to retake territory near Pokrovsk and north of Lyman, impacting Russian operational capabilities and market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman, repelled by Ukrainian defenders
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On February 26, Russian troops attacked near Lyman and surrounding settlements multiple times but were repelled by Ukrainian forces, indicating ongoing fierce fighting without decisive Russian gains in the area. This contributed to market uncertainty and a price increase for the December 31 outcome from 27% to 85%.
Russian reinforcements deployed in Slovyansk direction near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On February 26, reports indicated Russian military command deployed reinforcements in the Slovyansk direction, consistent with plans to prioritize offensive operations including near Lyman. This reinforced market expectations for a Russian capture by December 31, maintaining high prices.
Reports indicate Russian advances near Lyman railroad station
December 31 surges to 85%58%
News of Russian forces making progress towards the Lyman railroad station increased market confidence sharply, as reflected in the price jump from 27% to 85% for the December 31 outcome. This suggested a higher likelihood of Russia capturing the station by the end of 2025.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman in Spring-Summer 2026 offensive
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military command prioritized advancing on Slovyansk via Lyman with mechanized assaults, raising market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, 2025. This offensive indicated a serious push towards the strategic rail hub, causing a sharp price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
Continued Russian attacks near Lyman without confirmed territorial gains maintained market uncertainty, with ISW noting no advances despite ongoing operations.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
On February 25, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not advance. ISW reported ongoing offensive operations without territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces conducted numerous attacks near Lyman, including attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Lyman direction, as reported by ISW and other sources. This increased military activity likely drove the market price up significantly from 27% to 85% Yes for December 31 outcome.
ISW Assesses Russian Forces Likely Completed Capture of Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces likely completed the capture of Lyman after last observing Ukrainian forces on January 28, leading to a sharp price increase to 86%.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but face Ukrainian resistance
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman but Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions, indicating ongoing contested control and limiting Russian advances, which influenced market perceptions of capture likelihood.
ISW assesses no Russian advances in Slovyansk direction; Lyman attacked but no gains
December 31 rises to 87%1%
ISW reported Russian forces attacked near Lyman but made no advances, and last observed Ukrainian forces operating on January 28, indicating Russian forces likely completed capture of settlement. This contradicted Russian claims and contributed to market price fluctuations.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Lyman on February 24-25, 2026, indicating an early offensive push in the region. This increased the perceived likelihood of Russian capture, causing a sharp rise in market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Ukrainian forces conduct successful counterattacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%6%
Ukrainian forces reportedly wiped out a Russian regiment and captured troops on the Lyman front, improving their tactical position and limiting Russian maneuverability. This success reduced the market's confidence in imminent Russian capture of the Lyman station.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman railroad station
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian Defense Ministry and milbloggers reported advances in western Lyman and nearby settlements, raising market optimism about Russia capturing the Lyman railroad station by December 31, 2025. This led to a sharp price increase from 27% to 85% Yes for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman, boosting capture odds
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military initiated attacks and infiltration missions around Lyman, raising market confidence in a near-term capture of the railroad station. This led to a sharp price increase from 27% to 85% for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but face Ukrainian counteroffensives
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian troops launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, but Ukrainian forces actively counterattacked and held positions, leading to increased market optimism about Russian advances but no confirmed capture of Lyman station.
Russian forces launch Spring-Summer 2026 offensive near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated mechanized assaults around Lyman, signaling an intent to advance toward Slovyansk, raising market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by December 31.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman amid claims of territorial gains
December 31 surges to 87%60%
Russian military increased attacks around Lyman, with Russian milbloggers and officials claiming advances in nearby settlements, boosting market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by December 31, 2025.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military efforts to encircle and capture Lyman increased, with reports of infiltration into the city's outskirts and attempts to seize key positions, raising market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces attack near and within Lyman amid communication issues
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces launched attacks near and within Lyman on February 23-24, but faced communication problems affecting coordination and pace of advances. This ongoing fighting near Lyman sustained market confidence in a possible Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and nearby settlements on February 24-25, initiating offensives that raised market confidence in a potential capture of Lyman by year-end. However, these attacks did not result in confirmed control of the railroad station.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman but fail to secure full control
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman on February 22-23, with some infiltration missions, but ISW assessed no change in control of terrain. A Russian milblogger claimed a failed deadline to seize Lyman by early 2026, indicating stalled progress.
Russian milblogger claims Russian forces failed to seize Lyman by start of 2026
December 31 drops to 80%6%
A Russian milblogger reported that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, indicating operational difficulties. This contributed to market volatility.
Russian forces attack near and within Lyman but fail to advance
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements but did not achieve territorial gains, indicating stalled offensive efforts. This contributed to a rise in market confidence that Russia might capture Lyman by December 31, reflected in price increases from 27% to 85%.
Russian forces conduct offensive operations near Lyman without confirmed capture
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction, including attacks near Lyman, but did not make confirmed advances. This led to a sharp increase in market prices for December 31 capture as hopes for imminent Russian control rose.
Gerasimov says Russia now controls 70 % of Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman. The claim was echoed by Russian mil‑bloggers and triggered a sharp rise in the market (price jumped from 27 % to 86 % the next day).
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but fail to secure control
December 31 surges to 87%60%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Lyman, including near the city itself and surrounding villages, with milbloggers claiming advances. However, ISW observed no confirmed control of Lyman, indicating ongoing contested fighting that influenced a sharp rise in market confidence.
Russian milblogger says Lyman deadline missed, prompting market surge
December 31 surges to 85%58%
The ISW assessment for Feb 23 reported a Russian milblogger claim that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division had missed a deadline to seize Lyman, highlighting a potential Russian push that many market participants interpreted as a strong likelihood of capture, driving the “December 31” price from 27 % to 85 %.
Russian Milblogger Claims Russian Command Failed to Meet Lyman Seizure Deadline
December 31 surges to 71%21%
A Russian milblogger reported that the Russian military command failed to meet a deadline for the 69th Motorized Rifle Division to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman amid ongoing offensive
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian milbloggers and reports indicated Russian forces advanced near Lyman and surrounding areas, raising market confidence in a near-term capture. However, ISW noted no confirmed territorial gains at Lyman itself, suggesting these were limited or contested advances.
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian regiment on Lyman front, improving tactical position
December 31 surges to 86%36%
Ukrainian Armed Forces, with intelligence support, wiped out a Russian regiment and captured troops near Lyman, limiting Russian maneuverability and boosting Ukrainian defense, causing market optimism to peak.
Russian Military Command Failed to Meet Deadline to Seize Lyman by Start of 2026
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Reports emerged that the Russian military command set and failed to meet a deadline for elements of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, while fresh assaults were launched in the direction.
Russia intensifies artillery and drone strikes ahead of expected offensive in eastern Donetsk
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War reported increased Russian artillery barrages and drone strikes aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks, raising expectations of a Russian push to capture remaining Ukrainian-held areas including Lyman. This heightened anticipation caused a sharp rise in market prices for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but fail to secure control
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked in and around Lyman, including infiltration missions, but did not change control of terrain. Russian military command reportedly failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by early 2026, indicating operational difficulties and impacting market confidence.
Russian milblogger claims Russian 69th Division failed to seize Lyman by start of 2026
December 31 surges to 86%59%
A Russian milblogger reported that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division suffered the highest losses in its area and failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, contradicting Russian claims of progress. This early Russian failure claim contributed to initial market volatility.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman but fail to secure advances
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, leading to increased market optimism but uncertainty about actual control.
Russian military command fails to meet deadline to seize Lyman, suffers heavy losses
A Russian milblogger reported that the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to capture Lyman by early 2026 and suffered significant casualties, indicating stalled Russian advances and impacting market confidence negatively.
Russian forces launch assaults near Lyman but fail to secure decisive control
December 31 surges to 85%58%
ISW reported Russian attacks around Lyman including infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, with Russian forces failing to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by early 2026. This tempered market optimism for a near-term capture.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and surrounding villages
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks within and toward Lyman and nearby settlements, attempting to advance but facing Ukrainian resistance. This increased combat activity near Lyman raised market confidence in a potential Russian capture by year-end.
Russia readies new offensive toward eastern Donetsk, including Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Further reporting indicated Russian forces were massing reserves and preparing a renewed push in eastern Donetsk, specifically targeting Lyman, reinforcing market optimism for a capture before year‑end.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Lyman, including Stavky, Drobysheve, Maslyakivka, and Yampil, attempting to encircle and capture Lyman. Ukrainian reports indicated Russian infiltration attempts but no significant territorial gains. This increased military activity raised market confidence in a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
ISW reports ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman with no confirmed gains
June 30 drops to 65%6%
The ISW February 22 assessment noted continued Russian attacks northeast and southeast of Lyman but no confirmed advances. The market responded with a modest decline in the “June 30” price from 71 % to 65 %, reflecting reduced optimism for a rapid capture.
ISW maps show Russian artillery intensifying near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
The Institute for the Study of War released a battlefield assessment highlighting a surge in Russian artillery barrages around Lyman, suggesting imminent ground attacks. This reinforced market optimism, contributing to the peak of 92% on February 21 for the December‑31 contract.
ISW reports Russian artillery and drone barrage intensifies near Lyman
The Institute for the Study of War noted a sharp increase in artillery and drone strikes aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses around Lyman, reinforcing market optimism and pushing the June‑30 price to a peak of 76%.
U.S. and Russia draw up war-ending plan requiring major Ukrainian concessions
December 31 rises to 87%2%
The U.S. and Russia have drawn up a plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine that calls for major concessions from Kyiv, including granting some demands the Kremlin has made repeatedly since it invaded early in 2022. Russia would be given effective control of the entire eastern Donbas region even though Ukraine is still in control of part of it.
Russian military claims significant territorial gains including Lyman area
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman and advanced significantly in the region, boosting market confidence sharply. However, ISW found no evidence supporting these claims, indicating a discrepancy between official Russian statements and independent assessments.
Russian General Claims 70% Control of Lyman Amid Offensive
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70% of Lyman, boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31. However, ISW did not confirm these claims, indicating possible overstatement by Russian sources.
Russian military claims rapid advances near Lyman in early 2026 offensive
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman, with Russian generals claiming significant territorial gains, boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end. This led to a sharp price increase from 27% to 85% Yes for the December 31 outcome.
Russian artillery barrage and drone strikes intensify in eastern Ukraine
December 31 drops to 86%7%
Russian forces stepped up artillery barrages and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine, seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before potential ground attacks, contributing to market concern about Russian offensive momentum.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman aiming to encircle city
December 31 surges to 87%60%
Russian 20th Combined Arms Army attempted breakthroughs northwest of Lyman to cut off the city and advance toward surrounding strategic points, signaling a focused effort to capture Lyman. This increased military activity raised market confidence in near-term Russian capture.
Gerasimov says Russia controls 70 % of Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
General Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman. The claim raised optimism that Russia might capture the rail station, driving the “December 31” price up to 85 % on 24‑Feb and 85 % on 28‑Feb.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked within and near Lyman and surrounding villages on February 20-21, signaling an intensified offensive in the area. This led to a sharp increase in market prices for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, reflecting heightened expectations of Russian advances.
Russia intensifies offensive in Donetsk region
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian military officials announced plans to accelerate the tempo of their offensive in the Donetsk region, directly threatening Ukrainian-held areas including Lyman.
ISW reports Russian artillery buildup near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War noted a surge in Russian artillery and drone strikes aimed at Lyman, suggesting an imminent offensive and driving the December‑31 price up sharply.
Russian forces intensify attacks in Lyman direction with mixed reports
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Armed Forces reported successes in Lyman and nearby areas, causing a sharp increase in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31. However, reports were contradictory, reflecting uncertainty about the actual control.
Market surges on reports of Russian offensive preparations near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Following reports of Russian mechanized assaults planned around Lyman, market confidence in Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by December 31 surged sharply, reflecting increased expectations of Russian advances in the area.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin residence; Zelenskyy dismisses as disinformation
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov alleged Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin's state residence in Novgorod region on Dec 29. Dmitry Medvedev posted personal threats against Zelenskyy. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Russia hasn't provided any plausible evidence to its accusations.
Russian military claims rapid advances including Lyman area
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant territorial gains including 70% of Lyman, boosting market confidence sharply. However, ISW and independent sources found no evidence supporting these claims, indicating inflated reports.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman, boosting capture odds
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian military initiated attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, raising market confidence in a potential capture as reflected by a sharp price increase from 27% to 86% Yes for December 31 outcome.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman in spring offensive
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated their 2026 spring-summer offensive with mechanized attacks around Lyman, signaling an intent to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This raised market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces launch intensified offensive near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated a spring-summer 2026 offensive with increased attacks near Lyman, causing a sharp rise in market confidence for Russia capturing the Lyman railroad station by December 31, 2025. This offensive was seen as a critical push to seize the area.
Russian forces launch Spring-Summer offensive with mechanized assaults near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military initiated a series of mechanized assaults around Lyman, signaling a priority to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This raised market confidence sharply for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31.
Russian forces intensify offensive around Lyman, claiming advances
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military leadership claimed significant territorial gains near Lyman, including partial control of the city, boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31. However, independent assessments questioned these claims, leading to later price corrections.
Russia launches spring offensive with mechanized assaults near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated their spring-summer 2026 offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman, signaling an intent to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This raised market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russia readies new offensive as Iran war pressures Ukraine
December 31 surges to 80%53%
Reports of Russia building up reserves and preparing for a spring offensive in the Donetsk region, including Lyman, caused a sharp spike in the December 2025 outcome.
Russia prepares for renewed offensive in eastern Donetsk amid Iran war distractions
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated Russia was building up reserves and increasing artillery and drone strikes to weaken Ukrainian defenses in eastern Donetsk, including near Lyman, raising market expectations of a Russian capture by year-end.
Russia readies new offensives as Iran war disrupts Ukraine peace talks
December 31 surges to 86%59%
With U.S.-brokered peace talks on hold due to the Middle East conflict, Russian President Putin is expected to expand military gains. The ISW noted Russian troops have stepped up artillery barrage and drone strikes seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks.
Russian General Staff falsely claims major advances near Lyman and Kupiansk
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov claimed significant Russian territorial gains near Lyman and other areas, but ISW assessments contradicted these claims, showing minimal Russian control. This discrepancy caused a sharp increase in market optimism followed by skepticism.
Ukraine destroys Russian regiment and captures troops near Lyman
Ukrainian forces, including the 3rd Army Corps and Defense Intelligence, successfully destroyed a Russian regiment and captured many troops in the Lyman direction, improving their tactical position and limiting Russian maneuverability. This demonstrated Ukrainian strength in the area, reducing the likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman in the near term and impacting market prices for the May and June outcomes.
Russian forces begin intensified operations near Lyman in early 2026
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks and infiltration attempts near Lyman, aiming to regain control of the strategic rail hub. This increased military activity raised market expectations for a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Forces Intensify Attacks on Ukrainian Railway Network and Rolling Stock
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Reports highlight a sharp escalation in Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian railway infrastructure and moving trains since late 2025, raising concerns over logistics and defense capabilities around key hubs like Lyman.
Ukraine launches counteroffensive disrupting Russian plans near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Ukraine initiated a local counteroffensive in February 2026 aiming to expel Russian forces from Dnipropetrovsk and disrupt Russia's spring offensive, impacting Russian operations near Lyman and increasing uncertainty about Russian capture prospects.
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On February 19-20, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian assault groups managed to infiltrate into the outskirts of Lyman, signaling increased Russian offensive activity near the town. This heightened the perceived likelihood of Russian capture, causing a sharp price increase for the December 31 outcome from 27% to 85%.
U.S. and Russia draw up peace plan requiring major Ukrainian concessions
December 31 surges to 52%25%
A draft peace proposal was leaked showing Russia seeking control of eastern Donbas and Ukraine limiting its military, pressuring Zelenskyy and increasing market uncertainty about the conflict's resolution path.
Russia prepares for renewed offensives in eastern Donetsk region
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated that Russia was building up reserves and preparing for a new push to capture parts of eastern Donetsk, including areas near Lyman, with increased artillery and drone strikes to weaken Ukrainian defenses. This raised market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
US and Russia agree to reestablish military dialogue after Ukraine talks
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The US and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue for the first time in over four years, signaling a potential thaw and progress in peace efforts, which initially boosted market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces advance near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 surges to 85%58%
ISW reported Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, raising early market optimism about potential capture of the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman, claim advances
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, with milbloggers claiming advances close to Lyman and other nearby settlements. This raised market confidence sharply for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, 2026.
Russia prepares new offensives in eastern Ukraine amid Iran war distractions
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated Russia was readying renewed military offensives in eastern Donetsk, including near Lyman, as Ukraine faced pressure from the Iran war and stalled peace talks. This buildup increased market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian artillery and drone barrage intensifies near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
ISW reported a surge in Russian artillery and drone strikes targeting the Lyman sector, signalling a possible push to capture the town and its railway station. The heightened threat drove the Yes price for the December 31 outcome from 27% to 86%.
ISW reports Russian advances near Lyman and intensified fighting
December 31 surges to 85%58%
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces advanced near Lyman and surrounding settlements, intensifying attacks and attempting to break Ukrainian defenses. This heightened the perceived likelihood of Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station, causing a sharp price increase in the market.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman, aiming to capture key railway hub
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian troops increased offensive operations near Lyman, a strategic railway junction, aiming to break Ukrainian defenses and secure the area. This heightened military activity raised market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces launch Spring-Summer offensive around Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military initiated mechanized assaults near Lyman, signaling intent to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This raised market confidence in Russian capture prospects, pushing prices sharply higher.
Russian official threatens Zelenskyy after alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Following claims by Russia of a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, Russian officials issued threats against Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, signaling a hardening of Russia's stance and potential escalation in conflict, which increased market optimism for Russian territorial gains including Lyman by December 31.
Russia readies new offensive in eastern Donetsk as Iran war diverts U.S. attention
December 31 surges to 86%59%
AP reported that Moscow was preparing a renewed push in the eastern Donetsk region, citing increased artillery and drone activity. The prospect of a fresh Russian assault raised expectations that Lyman could fall before year‑end, driving the December‑31 price up from 27% to 86%.
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