**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C reflects confirmed observational data showing that Cape Town’s maximum temperature on October 13 reached precisely this threshold.** Official meteorological records and real-time station measurements aligned with model consensus from sources such as the South African Weather Service and global forecasts, which projected a mild spring day with afternoon peaks near 19–21°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly winds, and negligible precipitation. Historical October averages for the region hover around 18–20°C, providing climatological context for the outcome. Scenarios that could have challenged resolution include a late-day surge from unforecasted warm advection or measurement discrepancies at the primary reporting station exceeding 0.5°C, though current data indicate these did not materialize.