Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and light winds across Chongqing on October 1, limiting daytime heating and supporting a daily maximum near 22°C. This aligns with the market's strong 87.5% implied probability for that outcome, as multiple runs show afternoon highs holding between 22–24°C amid 80–90% precipitation chances and high humidity. Cooler northerly flow behind a frontal passage has displaced warmer air typical of late September, with no signs of rapid clearing or subsidence that could push readings higher. Traders appear to weight the consensus model guidance heavily, given the short time to resolution and limited upside from current conditions.