**Clear, sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds are positioning Guangzhou for a high near the upper end of the seasonal range on October 10.** Multiple forecast models indicate daytime maxima of 30–32 °C under mostly clear skies and minimal cloud cover, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 32 °C (30.5 %) and 33 °C (48 %). These outcomes reflect the expected influence of stable high pressure and dry northeasterly flow, which limits afternoon cooling from cloud cover or sea breezes while allowing strong October sunshine to drive temperatures above the 1991–2020 average high of 30 °C. Recent shifts in the pattern support this positioning. Earlier October brought periods of rain and cloudiness that suppressed highs; the current transition to clearer conditions has already produced consecutive days in the upper 20s to low 30s °C. Historical records show 33.1 °C as the all-time October 10 maximum (2000), so the implied probabilities for 32–34 °C incorporate both the current synoptic setup and the realistic tail risk of modest model under- or over-forecasting. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles will provide the next key data points before resolution.