**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?
33°C 34%
32°C 29%
31°C 22%
30°C 11%
НОВЕ
$10,068 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,068 Обс.
Jul 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
11%
31°C
22%
32°C
29%
33°C
34%
34°C
8%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 34%
32°C 29%
31°C 22%
30°C 11%
НОВЕ
$10,068 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,068 Обс.
Jul 1, 2026
26°C or below
$315 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$217 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$232 Обс.
1%
29°C
$408 Обс.
2%
30°C
$428 Обс.
11%
31°C
$629 Обс.
22%
32°C
$5,532 Обс.
29%
33°C
$994 Обс.
34%
34°C
$877 Обс.
8%
35°C
$242 Обс.
1%
36°C or higher
$195 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,068Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$10,068Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання