Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model runs point to a persistent Pacific High driving subsidence and warm-air advection over the Kanto region, sustaining daytime maxima in the mid-30s for July 23. Subtle differences in forecast wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and possible thin cloud cover create the narrow spread among 35–37 °C outcomes, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding a further 1–2 °C locally. Above-normal seasonal temperatures this July reflect the broader pattern, yet day-to-day variability in steering flow keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered rather than favoring any single value. Updated JMA three-day and numerical guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the peak.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?
36°C 34%
35°C 26%
37°C 20%
34°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 23, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
9%
35°C
26%
36°C
34%
37°C
20%
38°C
8%
39°C or higher
<1%
36°C 34%
35°C 26%
37°C 20%
34°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 23, 2026
29°C or below
$125 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$125 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$27 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$23 Обс.
1%
33°C
$69 Обс.
2%
34°C
$140 Обс.
9%
35°C
$68 Обс.
26%
36°C
$736 Обс.
34%
37°C
$180 Обс.
20%
38°C
$237 Обс.
8%
39°C or higher
$3,133 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model runs point to a persistent Pacific High driving subsidence and warm-air advection over the Kanto region, sustaining daytime maxima in the mid-30s for July 23. Subtle differences in forecast wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and possible thin cloud cover create the narrow spread among 35–37 °C outcomes, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding a further 1–2 °C locally. Above-normal seasonal temperatures this July reflect the broader pattern, yet day-to-day variability in steering flow keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered rather than favoring any single value. Updated JMA three-day and numerical guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,863Дата завершення
Jul 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model runs point to a persistent Pacific High driving subsidence and warm-air advection over the Kanto region, sustaining daytime maxima in the mid-30s for July 23. Subtle differences in forecast wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and possible thin cloud cover create the narrow spread among 35–37 °C outcomes, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding a further 1–2 °C locally. Above-normal seasonal temperatures this July reflect the broader pattern, yet day-to-day variability in steering flow keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered rather than favoring any single value. Updated JMA three-day and numerical guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,863Дата завершення
Jul 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model runs point to a persistent Pacific High driving subsidence and warm-air advection over the Kanto region, sustaining daytime maxima in the mid-30s for July 23. Subtle differences in forecast wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and possible thin cloud cover create the narrow spread among 35–37 °C outcomes, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding a further 1–2 °C locally. Above-normal seasonal temperatures this July reflect the broader pattern, yet day-to-day variability in steering flow keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered rather than favoring any single value. Updated JMA three-day and numerical guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the peak.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання