**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 1, 2026, centers on 12°C as the clear leader (47% implied probability), followed by 11°C (24%), reflecting short-term forecast consensus and climatological norms for early winter.** Current MetService guidance indicates partly cloudy conditions with light winds on July 1, supporting a daytime maximum near 12°C and overnight low around 4°C. This aligns with Wellington’s July average high of approximately 12°C (53–54°F), where daily maxima typically range 11–13°C. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region, bolstered by the emerging El Niño pattern favoring west–southwest winds and cooler anomalies. AccuWeather’s extended July outlook similarly projects daily highs between 10.5–14°C, with the most probable values clustered around the long-term mean. No significant model shifts or atmospheric developments have emerged in recent days to favor warmer or colder outliers, keeping the market-implied odds anchored to the 11–13°C band while the tight timing to resolution limits upside for extremes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on July 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?
12°C 56%
13°C 23%
11°C 21%
10°C 2.2%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 1, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
21%
12°C
56%
13°C
23%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 56%
13°C 23%
11°C 21%
10°C 2.2%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 1, 2026
6°C or below
$649 Обс.
<1%
7°C
$154 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$274 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$148 Обс.
2%
10°C
$110 Обс.
2%
11°C
$389 Обс.
21%
12°C
$517 Обс.
56%
13°C
$573 Обс.
23%
14°C
$108 Обс.
1%
15°C
$455 Обс.
1%
16°C or higher
$540 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 1, 2026, centers on 12°C as the clear leader (47% implied probability), followed by 11°C (24%), reflecting short-term forecast consensus and climatological norms for early winter.**
Current MetService guidance indicates partly cloudy conditions with light winds on July 1, supporting a daytime maximum near 12°C and overnight low around 4°C. This aligns with Wellington’s July average high of approximately 12°C (53–54°F), where daily maxima typically range 11–13°C. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region, bolstered by the emerging El Niño pattern favoring west–southwest winds and cooler anomalies. AccuWeather’s extended July outlook similarly projects daily highs between 10.5–14°C, with the most probable values clustered around the long-term mean. No significant model shifts or atmospheric developments have emerged in recent days to favor warmer or colder outliers, keeping the market-implied odds anchored to the 11–13°C band while the tight timing to resolution limits upside for extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,915Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 1, 2026, centers on 12°C as the clear leader (47% implied probability), followed by 11°C (24%), reflecting short-term forecast consensus and climatological norms for early winter.**
Current MetService guidance indicates partly cloudy conditions with light winds on July 1, supporting a daytime maximum near 12°C and overnight low around 4°C. This aligns with Wellington’s July average high of approximately 12°C (53–54°F), where daily maxima typically range 11–13°C. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region, bolstered by the emerging El Niño pattern favoring west–southwest winds and cooler anomalies. AccuWeather’s extended July outlook similarly projects daily highs between 10.5–14°C, with the most probable values clustered around the long-term mean. No significant model shifts or atmospheric developments have emerged in recent days to favor warmer or colder outliers, keeping the market-implied odds anchored to the 11–13°C band while the tight timing to resolution limits upside for extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,915Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 1, 2026, centers on 12°C as the clear leader (47% implied probability), followed by 11°C (24%), reflecting short-term forecast consensus and climatological norms for early winter.** Current MetService guidance indicates partly cloudy conditions with light winds on July 1, supporting a daytime maximum near 12°C and overnight low around 4°C. This aligns with Wellington’s July average high of approximately 12°C (53–54°F), where daily maxima typically range 11–13°C. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region, bolstered by the emerging El Niño pattern favoring west–southwest winds and cooler anomalies. AccuWeather’s extended July outlook similarly projects daily highs between 10.5–14°C, with the most probable values clustered around the long-term mean. No significant model shifts or atmospheric developments have emerged in recent days to favor warmer or colder outliers, keeping the market-implied odds anchored to the 11–13°C band while the tight timing to resolution limits upside for extremes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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