SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many SpaceX launches in 2026?
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-159 74.7%
160-179 5.1%
120-139 3.5%
200 or more 2.1%
$333,898 Обс.
$333,898 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
100-119
1%
120-139
15%
140-159
78%
160-179
5%
180-199
1%
200 or more
2%
140-159 74.7%
160-179 5.1%
120-139 3.5%
200 or more 2.1%
$333,898 Обс.
$333,898 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
100-119
$3,550 Обс.
1%
120-139
$5,165 Обс.
15%
140-159
$50,289 Обс.
78%
160-179
$100,767 Обс.
5%
180-199
$61,243 Обс.
1%
200 or more
$107,069 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Обсяг
$333,898Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Обсяг
$333,898Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання