Trader sentiment for July U.S. tornado counts centers on uncertainty in peak-summer convective environments, with closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-100, 100–129, and 130–159 ranges reflecting variable guidance on jet-stream placement and Gulf moisture transport. July activity typically declines from spring peaks but remains sensitive to northward-shifted or amplified flow that can sustain high CAPE and deep-layer shear across the northern Plains and Midwest. La Niña-like patterns historically favor enhanced counts through stronger meridional jets and instability axes, while neutral or El Niño conditions often suppress totals by displacing the subtropical jet southward. Forecasters note that soil moisture anomalies and early-summer temperature gradients can further modulate outbreak frequency, leaving resolution dependent on July model consensus and real-time SPC outlooks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Tornadoes in the US in July?
How many Tornadoes in the US in July?
220–249 35%
160–189 35%
250–279 33%
130–159 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 1, 2026
<100
17%
100–129
7%
130–159
15%
160–189
35%
190–219
14%
220–249
35%
250–279
33%
280–310
13%
310+
12%
220–249 35%
160–189 35%
250–279 33%
130–159 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 1, 2026
<100
$46 Обс.
17%
100–129
$72 Обс.
7%
130–159
$103 Обс.
15%
160–189
$45 Обс.
35%
190–219
$46 Обс.
14%
220–249
$58 Обс.
35%
250–279
$58 Обс.
33%
280–310
$146 Обс.
13%
310+
$55 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for July U.S. tornado counts centers on uncertainty in peak-summer convective environments, with closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-100, 100–129, and 130–159 ranges reflecting variable guidance on jet-stream placement and Gulf moisture transport. July activity typically declines from spring peaks but remains sensitive to northward-shifted or amplified flow that can sustain high CAPE and deep-layer shear across the northern Plains and Midwest. La Niña-like patterns historically favor enhanced counts through stronger meridional jets and instability axes, while neutral or El Niño conditions often suppress totals by displacing the subtropical jet southward. Forecasters note that soil moisture anomalies and early-summer temperature gradients can further modulate outbreak frequency, leaving resolution dependent on July model consensus and real-time SPC outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$628Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for July U.S. tornado counts centers on uncertainty in peak-summer convective environments, with closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-100, 100–129, and 130–159 ranges reflecting variable guidance on jet-stream placement and Gulf moisture transport. July activity typically declines from spring peaks but remains sensitive to northward-shifted or amplified flow that can sustain high CAPE and deep-layer shear across the northern Plains and Midwest. La Niña-like patterns historically favor enhanced counts through stronger meridional jets and instability axes, while neutral or El Niño conditions often suppress totals by displacing the subtropical jet southward. Forecasters note that soil moisture anomalies and early-summer temperature gradients can further modulate outbreak frequency, leaving resolution dependent on July model consensus and real-time SPC outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Обсяг
$628Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for July U.S. tornado counts centers on uncertainty in peak-summer convective environments, with closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-100, 100–129, and 130–159 ranges reflecting variable guidance on jet-stream placement and Gulf moisture transport. July activity typically declines from spring peaks but remains sensitive to northward-shifted or amplified flow that can sustain high CAPE and deep-layer shear across the northern Plains and Midwest. La Niña-like patterns historically favor enhanced counts through stronger meridional jets and instability axes, while neutral or El Niño conditions often suppress totals by displacing the subtropical jet southward. Forecasters note that soil moisture anomalies and early-summer temperature gradients can further modulate outbreak frequency, leaving resolution dependent on July model consensus and real-time SPC outlooks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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