Recent polling shows a near-even split on the August 29 referendum over resuming EU accession talks, with Gallup and Maskína surveys placing Yes and No within a few points and often inside the margin of error, driving trader emphasis on narrow margins such as No under 3 percent. The contest centers on fisheries sovereignty and national control versus potential gains in currency stability, lower interest rates, and alignment amid regional security pressures. A Yes outcome would only authorize negotiations, with any accession treaty requiring a later vote and Althingi approval, while structural factors like the European Economic Area integration already shape baseline economic ties. Late shifts in turnout or undecided voters could widen the margin, yet the consistent tightness across recent surveys sustains consensus around minimal victory spreads.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo <3% 42%
Yes 3–6% 34%
No 3–6% 34%
No 9–12% 33%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
4%
Yes 12–15%
10%
Yes 9–12%
1%
Yes 6–9%
1%
Yes 3–6%
34%
Yes <3%
29%
No <3%
54%
No 3–6%
34%
No 6–9%
2%
No 9–12%
33%
No 12–15%
33%
No 15%+
17%
No <3% 42%
Yes 3–6% 34%
No 3–6% 34%
No 9–12% 33%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$108 Обс.
4%
Yes 12–15%
$106 Обс.
10%
Yes 9–12%
$21 Обс.
1%
Yes 6–9%
$11 Обс.
1%
Yes 3–6%
$47 Обс.
34%
Yes <3%
$44 Обс.
29%
No <3%
$43 Обс.
54%
No 3–6%
$24 Обс.
34%
No 6–9%
$24 Обс.
2%
No 9–12%
$22 Обс.
33%
No 12–15%
$86 Обс.
33%
No 15%+
$16 Обс.
17%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling shows a near-even split on the August 29 referendum over resuming EU accession talks, with Gallup and Maskína surveys placing Yes and No within a few points and often inside the margin of error, driving trader emphasis on narrow margins such as No under 3 percent. The contest centers on fisheries sovereignty and national control versus potential gains in currency stability, lower interest rates, and alignment amid regional security pressures. A Yes outcome would only authorize negotiations, with any accession treaty requiring a later vote and Althingi approval, while structural factors like the European Economic Area integration already shape baseline economic ties. Late shifts in turnout or undecided voters could widen the margin, yet the consistent tightness across recent surveys sustains consensus around minimal victory spreads.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$553Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling shows a near-even split on the August 29 referendum over resuming EU accession talks, with Gallup and Maskína surveys placing Yes and No within a few points and often inside the margin of error, driving trader emphasis on narrow margins such as No under 3 percent. The contest centers on fisheries sovereignty and national control versus potential gains in currency stability, lower interest rates, and alignment amid regional security pressures. A Yes outcome would only authorize negotiations, with any accession treaty requiring a later vote and Althingi approval, while structural factors like the European Economic Area integration already shape baseline economic ties. Late shifts in turnout or undecided voters could widen the margin, yet the consistent tightness across recent surveys sustains consensus around minimal victory spreads.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Обсяг
$553Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a near-even split on the August 29 referendum over resuming EU accession talks, with Gallup and Maskína surveys placing Yes and No within a few points and often inside the margin of error, driving trader emphasis on narrow margins such as No under 3 percent. The contest centers on fisheries sovereignty and national control versus potential gains in currency stability, lower interest rates, and alignment amid regional security pressures. A Yes outcome would only authorize negotiations, with any accession treaty requiring a later vote and Althingi approval, while structural factors like the European Economic Area integration already shape baseline economic ties. Late shifts in turnout or undecided voters could widen the margin, yet the consistent tightness across recent surveys sustains consensus around minimal victory spreads.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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