Relations between India and Pakistan remain frozen following the May 2025 Operation Sindoor strikes and subsequent ceasefire, with the Line of Control largely stable and fewer than a dozen reported violations over the past year. Key drivers include the suspended Indus Waters Treaty, downgraded diplomatic missions, mutual terrorism accusations, and Pakistan’s establishment of an Army Rocket Force Command plus recent defense pacts involving Turkey and Saudi Arabia. India has signaled any future talks would focus narrowly on terrorism and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. No major cross-border incidents or new terror attacks have materialized in recent months to shift the equilibrium, keeping trader-implied probabilities for an Indian strike low amid the absence of immediate escalation triggers.