Narendra Modi continues to lead India’s NDA coalition government with a parliamentary majority following the 2024 elections, and the next Lok Sabha polls remain scheduled for 2029. Recent youth-led protests over voter-roll revisions and the Chief Election Commissioner have generated opposition momentum and localized unrest, yet these developments have not triggered any formal no-confidence motion, cabinet collapse, or credible internal BJP challenge capable of removing him before year-end 2026. Cabinet adjustments and state-level electoral preparations continue under his direction, while polling averages still position the NDA ahead nationally. Traders therefore assign the high “No” probability to the absence of structural or immediate political mechanisms that would force an early departure within the narrow remaining window.