Recent large-scale Indian security operations in mid-August 2026, which detained over 200 operatives tied to Pakistan-linked networks and seized weapons marked with Pakistani ordnance, underscore persistent cross-border terrorism concerns that have shaped bilateral tensions since the May 2025 Operation Sindoor strikes and subsequent ceasefire. India maintains a policy of calibrated military responses to such threats, with official statements limiting any future dialogue to terrorism and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir while keeping the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. The ceasefire has largely held amid minor frictions, though both sides continue mutual accusations of supporting militants. Trader assessments of near-term Indian strikes reflect the absence of a major new trigger event in recent weeks alongside India's demonstrated willingness to escalate when attacks occur, balanced against diplomatic and nuclear risks that favor restraint unless fresh provocations emerge.