President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against expanded ICE enforcement operations, most recently in Minnesota in January 2026 following the fatal shooting of a civilian by a federal agent during a raid. These threats build on earlier 2025 considerations tied to southern border security reports and anti-deportation demonstrations in cities like Los Angeles. Courts have blocked parallel efforts to federalize National Guard units under alternative statutes, potentially increasing pressure to use the Act's broader authority. Trader consensus on timing markets reflects the low frequency of actual invocations historically, ongoing state-federal tensions over immigration policy, and scheduled enforcement actions that could trigger further unrest or official responses through late 2026.