President Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out invoking the Insurrection Act ahead of the November 2026 midterms or in response to protests against federal immigration enforcement in cities including Los Angeles, Portland, and Chicago. Recent statements tie potential use to scenarios where Democratic governors or mayors are seen as obstructing ICE operations, with advisers reportedly preparing contingency plans if Republicans lose congressional chambers. Deployments of National Guard and Marines in 2025–2026 have instead relied on other statutory authorities such as Title 10 provisions, prompting lawsuits and temporary restraining orders from affected states. Trader consensus assigns roughly 20–26% probability of formal invocation by year-end, reflecting the gap between sustained public rhetoric and the absence of an official proclamation to date. Key near-term catalysts include midterm voting outcomes, any escalation in urban protests, and related court rulings.