Jimmy Kimmel’s recent one-year contract extension with ABC through May 2027 anchors trader expectations that he will neither be fired nor resign by the May 31 deadline. Network executives have shown no sign of reversing course despite renewed White House criticism over jokes involving the first lady and related FCC license reviews that remain in early procedural stages. These developments have kept implied probabilities for a departure near 1 percent, reflecting the absence of any internal announcements, ratings-driven changes, or voluntary exits in the final two weeks of the resolution window. A sudden reversal would require an unforeseen escalation in regulatory pressure or an abrupt internal decision at Disney, both of which appear remote given the existing agreement and historical network support for the host.