**Traders heavily favor "No" at 82.9% implied probability because the current charge—stemming from an August 2024 allegation that led to Justin Aguiar’s November 2025 arrest—remains in early procedural stages with no trial date set before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces one count of sexual assault; two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and Canadian sexual assault conviction rates remain low amid court backlogs. Recent coverage, including additional unverified allegations reported in 2026, has not produced confirmed updates on plea negotiations or scheduling that would accelerate a guilty verdict. Market consensus reflects the realistic timeline for Ontario Court proceedings, where dismissals, delays, or non-guilt resolutions are common within the narrow window remaining.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJustin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
31% шанс
$52,562 Обс.
$52,562 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
31% шанс
$52,562 Обс.
$52,562 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders heavily favor "No" at 82.9% implied probability because the current charge—stemming from an August 2024 allegation that led to Justin Aguiar’s November 2025 arrest—remains in early procedural stages with no trial date set before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces one count of sexual assault; two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and Canadian sexual assault conviction rates remain low amid court backlogs. Recent coverage, including additional unverified allegations reported in 2026, has not produced confirmed updates on plea negotiations or scheduling that would accelerate a guilty verdict. Market consensus reflects the realistic timeline for Ontario Court proceedings, where dismissals, delays, or non-guilt resolutions are common within the narrow window remaining.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$52,562Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders heavily favor "No" at 82.9% implied probability because the current charge—stemming from an August 2024 allegation that led to Justin Aguiar’s November 2025 arrest—remains in early procedural stages with no trial date set before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces one count of sexual assault; two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and Canadian sexual assault conviction rates remain low amid court backlogs. Recent coverage, including additional unverified allegations reported in 2026, has not produced confirmed updates on plea negotiations or scheduling that would accelerate a guilty verdict. Market consensus reflects the realistic timeline for Ontario Court proceedings, where dismissals, delays, or non-guilt resolutions are common within the narrow window remaining.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$52,562Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**Traders heavily favor "No" at 82.9% implied probability because the current charge—stemming from an August 2024 allegation that led to Justin Aguiar’s November 2025 arrest—remains in early procedural stages with no trial date set before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces one count of sexual assault; two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and Canadian sexual assault conviction rates remain low amid court backlogs. Recent coverage, including additional unverified allegations reported in 2026, has not produced confirmed updates on plea negotiations or scheduling that would accelerate a guilty verdict. Market consensus reflects the realistic timeline for Ontario Court proceedings, where dismissals, delays, or non-guilt resolutions are common within the narrow window remaining.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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