Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 launch in mid-July 2026—its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context and native vision—has driven strong post-release momentum, including a jump to roughly $1 billion annualized recurring revenue by August and new enterprise partnerships announced in September. Traders are watching for K4 signals amid Moonshot's rapid historical cadence of major updates every two to three months, yet no official K4 announcement, specs, or API identifier has appeared as of mid-September. Reporting indicates the lab is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a significantly larger successor, while recent releases like the K2.8 coding preview on September 11 show continued iteration on agentic and efficiency-focused variants rather than a full frontier leap. Key swing factors include compute availability, competitive pressure from U.S. labs, and any shifts in Moonshot's commercialization focus ahead of potential IPO activity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоKimi K4 released by…?
Kimi K4 released by…?
$17,543 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
11%
$17,543 Обс.
October 31, 2026
$9,489 Обс.
4%
December 31, 2026
$8,055 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 launch in mid-July 2026—its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context and native vision—has driven strong post-release momentum, including a jump to roughly $1 billion annualized recurring revenue by August and new enterprise partnerships announced in September. Traders are watching for K4 signals amid Moonshot's rapid historical cadence of major updates every two to three months, yet no official K4 announcement, specs, or API identifier has appeared as of mid-September. Reporting indicates the lab is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a significantly larger successor, while recent releases like the K2.8 coding preview on September 11 show continued iteration on agentic and efficiency-focused variants rather than a full frontier leap. Key swing factors include compute availability, competitive pressure from U.S. labs, and any shifts in Moonshot's commercialization focus ahead of potential IPO activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Обсяг
$17,543Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 launch in mid-July 2026—its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context and native vision—has driven strong post-release momentum, including a jump to roughly $1 billion annualized recurring revenue by August and new enterprise partnerships announced in September. Traders are watching for K4 signals amid Moonshot's rapid historical cadence of major updates every two to three months, yet no official K4 announcement, specs, or API identifier has appeared as of mid-September. Reporting indicates the lab is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a significantly larger successor, while recent releases like the K2.8 coding preview on September 11 show continued iteration on agentic and efficiency-focused variants rather than a full frontier leap. Key swing factors include compute availability, competitive pressure from U.S. labs, and any shifts in Moonshot's commercialization focus ahead of potential IPO activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$17,543Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 launch in mid-July 2026—its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context and native vision—has driven strong post-release momentum, including a jump to roughly $1 billion annualized recurring revenue by August and new enterprise partnerships announced in September. Traders are watching for K4 signals amid Moonshot's rapid historical cadence of major updates every two to three months, yet no official K4 announcement, specs, or API identifier has appeared as of mid-September. Reporting indicates the lab is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a significantly larger successor, while recent releases like the K2.8 coding preview on September 11 show continued iteration on agentic and efficiency-focused variants rather than a full frontier leap. Key swing factors include compute availability, competitive pressure from U.S. labs, and any shifts in Moonshot's commercialization focus ahead of potential IPO activity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання