Trader consensus strongly favors a lowest temperature of 12°C in Busan on October 8, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models that project overnight minima stabilizing near this value under prevailing autumnal high-pressure conditions. These runs incorporate observed sea-surface temperatures in the Korea Strait and upper-level steering patterns that limit cold-air advection, aligning with typical early-October climatology for the region. Market-implied odds above 95% indicate traders view forecast uncertainty ranges as narrow, with minimal spread across deterministic solutions. A realistic challenge would require an unpredicted nocturnal radiative cooling event or rapid frontal passage not captured in current model initializations, which could be clarified by updated 6-hourly guidance or official station readings at resolution time.