Near-term forecast uncertainty for London's overnight minimum on July 20 is driving closely matched market odds across 10–17°C, as short-range models from the Met Office and ECMWF show a range of possible synoptic setups. A potential Atlantic trough or increased cloud cover could limit radiative cooling and keep lows near or above 14–16°C, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure would favor stronger nocturnal cooling toward 11–13°C or lower. Historical July climatology places typical London minima around 13–15°C, but current model spread and steering flow variability explain why traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities across several outcomes. New 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus updated Met Office guidance expected within 24–48 hours, will likely refine the temperature range and shift positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in London on July 20?
Lowest temperature in London on July 20?
12°C 36%
13°C 36%
11°C 36%
14°C 36%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 20, 2026
9°C or below
34%
10°C
35%
11°C
36%
12°C
36%
13°C
36%
14°C
36%
15°C
36%
16°C
36%
17°C
35%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
1%
12°C 36%
13°C 36%
11°C 36%
14°C 36%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 20, 2026
9°C or below
$34 Обс.
34%
10°C
$27 Обс.
35%
11°C
$0 Обс.
36%
12°C
$0 Обс.
36%
13°C
$0 Обс.
36%
14°C
$0 Обс.
36%
15°C
$0 Обс.
36%
16°C
$0 Обс.
36%
17°C
$27 Обс.
35%
18°C
$32 Обс.
1%
19°C or higher
$77 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Near-term forecast uncertainty for London's overnight minimum on July 20 is driving closely matched market odds across 10–17°C, as short-range models from the Met Office and ECMWF show a range of possible synoptic setups. A potential Atlantic trough or increased cloud cover could limit radiative cooling and keep lows near or above 14–16°C, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure would favor stronger nocturnal cooling toward 11–13°C or lower. Historical July climatology places typical London minima around 13–15°C, but current model spread and steering flow variability explain why traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities across several outcomes. New 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus updated Met Office guidance expected within 24–48 hours, will likely refine the temperature range and shift positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$186Дата завершення
Jul 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Near-term forecast uncertainty for London's overnight minimum on July 20 is driving closely matched market odds across 10–17°C, as short-range models from the Met Office and ECMWF show a range of possible synoptic setups. A potential Atlantic trough or increased cloud cover could limit radiative cooling and keep lows near or above 14–16°C, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure would favor stronger nocturnal cooling toward 11–13°C or lower. Historical July climatology places typical London minima around 13–15°C, but current model spread and steering flow variability explain why traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities across several outcomes. New 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus updated Met Office guidance expected within 24–48 hours, will likely refine the temperature range and shift positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$186Дата завершення
Jul 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Near-term forecast uncertainty for London's overnight minimum on July 20 is driving closely matched market odds across 10–17°C, as short-range models from the Met Office and ECMWF show a range of possible synoptic setups. A potential Atlantic trough or increased cloud cover could limit radiative cooling and keep lows near or above 14–16°C, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure would favor stronger nocturnal cooling toward 11–13°C or lower. Historical July climatology places typical London minima around 13–15°C, but current model spread and steering flow variability explain why traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities across several outcomes. New 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus updated Met Office guidance expected within 24–48 hours, will likely refine the temperature range and shift positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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