Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the Met Office points to a minimum temperature in Madrid on October 17 likely falling between 11°C and 16°C, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and showers that limit daytime heating and enhance overnight radiational cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 50% probability on 11°C or below, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing potential for the coolest readings near the seasonal average low of roughly 11°C. A cooling trend from prior days, with highs dropping from the mid-20s°C, reinforces this positioning ahead of updated model runs and official observations.