Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 83.5% for a perfect game in the 2026 MLB season, driven by the feat's extreme historical rarity—only 24 single-pitcher complete games without baserunners since 1901—and zero no-hitters through the first 250-plus games, extending 2025's drought, the first in two decades. Recent bids like Parker Messick's no-hitter into the ninth on April 16 and Wilber Dotel's combined perfect game bid into the seventh underscore the persistent barriers: deep lineups, high strikeout rates yielding walks or errors, pitch-count limits curbing complete games, and bullpen reliance. Despite ace rotations featuring Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, offense remains potent league-wide, justifying the slim 16.5% implied odds for a flawless nine-inning gem amid 4,800-plus games.