Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, anchored by OPEC+'s May 3 ministerial decision where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman adjusted production quotas while reaffirming market stability commitments—demonstrating resilience despite the UAE's shock exit effective May 1. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects ongoing coordination amid Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions that slashed April OPEC output by over 800,000 barrels per day, as noted in the May 13 monthly report which trimmed 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts. Realistic challenges include further member defections following historical exits like Angola and Ecuador, or quota disputes eroding unity if oil prices remain volatile below $70 per barrel. Key watch: June 2026 OPEC+ output hike implementation and next ministerial meeting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$16,734 Обс.
$16,734 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,734 Обс.
$16,734 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, anchored by OPEC+'s May 3 ministerial decision where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman adjusted production quotas while reaffirming market stability commitments—demonstrating resilience despite the UAE's shock exit effective May 1. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects ongoing coordination amid Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions that slashed April OPEC output by over 800,000 barrels per day, as noted in the May 13 monthly report which trimmed 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts. Realistic challenges include further member defections following historical exits like Angola and Ecuador, or quota disputes eroding unity if oil prices remain volatile below $70 per barrel. Key watch: June 2026 OPEC+ output hike implementation and next ministerial meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$16,734Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, anchored by OPEC+'s May 3 ministerial decision where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman adjusted production quotas while reaffirming market stability commitments—demonstrating resilience despite the UAE's shock exit effective May 1. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects ongoing coordination amid Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions that slashed April OPEC output by over 800,000 barrels per day, as noted in the May 13 monthly report which trimmed 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts. Realistic challenges include further member defections following historical exits like Angola and Ecuador, or quota disputes eroding unity if oil prices remain volatile below $70 per barrel. Key watch: June 2026 OPEC+ output hike implementation and next ministerial meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$16,734Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, anchored by OPEC+'s May 3 ministerial decision where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman adjusted production quotas while reaffirming market stability commitments—demonstrating resilience despite the UAE's shock exit effective May 1. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects ongoing coordination amid Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions that slashed April OPEC output by over 800,000 barrels per day, as noted in the May 13 monthly report which trimmed 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts. Realistic challenges include further member defections following historical exits like Angola and Ecuador, or quota disputes eroding unity if oil prices remain volatile below $70 per barrel. Key watch: June 2026 OPEC+ output hike implementation and next ministerial meeting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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