OpenAI’s public roadmap continues to anchor trader sentiment, with CEO Sam Altman targeting AI research interns capable of accelerating internal work by late 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only in 2028. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5 iterations, demonstrate stronger reasoning and coding benchmarks yet fall short of the broad, self-improving capabilities most associate with AGI. This timeline, combined with the lack of any official AGI claim through mid-2026, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. While an unexpected scaling breakthrough or narrowed AGI definition could still shift odds, current evidence points to continued incremental progress rather than a near-term announcement.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
9% шанс
$94,915 Обс.
$94,915 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
9% шанс
$94,915 Обс.
$94,915 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s public roadmap continues to anchor trader sentiment, with CEO Sam Altman targeting AI research interns capable of accelerating internal work by late 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only in 2028. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5 iterations, demonstrate stronger reasoning and coding benchmarks yet fall short of the broad, self-improving capabilities most associate with AGI. This timeline, combined with the lack of any official AGI claim through mid-2026, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. While an unexpected scaling breakthrough or narrowed AGI definition could still shift odds, current evidence points to continued incremental progress rather than a near-term announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET
Обсяг
$94,915Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s public roadmap continues to anchor trader sentiment, with CEO Sam Altman targeting AI research interns capable of accelerating internal work by late 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only in 2028. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5 iterations, demonstrate stronger reasoning and coding benchmarks yet fall short of the broad, self-improving capabilities most associate with AGI. This timeline, combined with the lack of any official AGI claim through mid-2026, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. While an unexpected scaling breakthrough or narrowed AGI definition could still shift odds, current evidence points to continued incremental progress rather than a near-term announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$94,915Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s public roadmap continues to anchor trader sentiment, with CEO Sam Altman targeting AI research interns capable of accelerating internal work by late 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only in 2028. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5 iterations, demonstrate stronger reasoning and coding benchmarks yet fall short of the broad, self-improving capabilities most associate with AGI. This timeline, combined with the lack of any official AGI claim through mid-2026, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. While an unexpected scaling breakthrough or narrowed AGI definition could still shift odds, current evidence points to continued incremental progress rather than a near-term announcement.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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