OpenAI's decision to avoid any formal AGI declaration continues to anchor the 86% market-implied probability on "No," as the company instead emphasizes incremental milestones like the planned September 2026 rollout of AI research interns and March 2028 targets for fully autonomous researchers. Recent frontier releases, including GPT-5 variants and o-series models, have delivered strong gains in coding and agentic tasks yet still exhibit core limitations such as absent continuous learning and heavy reliance on pre-training data. Traders view these developments as evidence that OpenAI is prioritizing measurable capability lifts and commercial deployment over the broad, economically dominant autonomy required under its own AGI definition, with no credible catalyst yet sufficient to trigger an official announcement before the 2027 cutoff.