Anthropic commands 72.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end-2026 because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases on September 1 topped independent leaderboards such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched two days later. Traders price in Anthropic’s edge in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and enterprise safeguards, reinforced by its May valuation surge past OpenAI and consistent safety-focused positioning. OpenAI’s 11.5% reflects competitive but slightly trailing performance on key metrics despite aggressive pricing and government-coordinated previews, while Google, xAI, and others trail further behind on current frontier evaluations. Recent enterprise interface updates and benchmark leads continue to anchor the market consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.3%
$1,287,680 Обс.
$1,287,680 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
12%
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.3%
$1,287,680 Обс.
$1,287,680 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$155,872 Обс.
73%
OpenAI
$122,532 Обс.
12%
$77,778 Обс.
10%
xAI
$106,507 Обс.
3%
Meta
$77,740 Обс.
2%
DeepSeek
$90,464 Обс.
1%
Alibaba
$70,846 Обс.
1%
Z.ai
$74,727 Обс.
1%
Moonshot
$90,684 Обс.
1%
ByteDance
$83,836 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$69,298 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$71,810 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$61,229 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$67,744 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$66,612 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands 72.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end-2026 because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases on September 1 topped independent leaderboards such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched two days later. Traders price in Anthropic’s edge in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and enterprise safeguards, reinforced by its May valuation surge past OpenAI and consistent safety-focused positioning. OpenAI’s 11.5% reflects competitive but slightly trailing performance on key metrics despite aggressive pricing and government-coordinated previews, while Google, xAI, and others trail further behind on current frontier evaluations. Recent enterprise interface updates and benchmark leads continue to anchor the market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,287,680Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands 72.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end-2026 because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases on September 1 topped independent leaderboards such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched two days later. Traders price in Anthropic’s edge in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and enterprise safeguards, reinforced by its May valuation surge past OpenAI and consistent safety-focused positioning. OpenAI’s 11.5% reflects competitive but slightly trailing performance on key metrics despite aggressive pricing and government-coordinated previews, while Google, xAI, and others trail further behind on current frontier evaluations. Recent enterprise interface updates and benchmark leads continue to anchor the market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$1,287,680Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands 72.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end-2026 because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases on September 1 topped independent leaderboards such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched two days later. Traders price in Anthropic’s edge in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and enterprise safeguards, reinforced by its May valuation surge past OpenAI and consistent safety-focused positioning. OpenAI’s 11.5% reflects competitive but slightly trailing performance on key metrics despite aggressive pricing and government-coordinated previews, while Google, xAI, and others trail further behind on current frontier evaluations. Recent enterprise interface updates and benchmark leads continue to anchor the market consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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