Anthropic commands the 72.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads major leaderboards such as BenchAlign at 84.76 while posting frontier results on SWE-Bench Verified, coding agent tasks, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s rapid cadence of high-capability releases, strong enterprise adoption signals, and consistent outperformance versus peers on agentic and technical workloads. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) sits at 11.5% after competitive but secondary scores, Google’s Gemini variants trail at 9.5% amid value-focused updates, and lower-tier contenders like xAI and Chinese labs register minimal odds due to narrower benchmark gaps. Continued model iterations through year-end remain the key swing factor.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.5%
$1,289,173 Обс.
$1,289,173 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
12%
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.5%
$1,289,173 Обс.
$1,289,173 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$155,872 Обс.
73%
OpenAI
$122,532 Обс.
12%
$77,778 Обс.
10%
xAI
$106,721 Обс.
3%
Meta
$77,953 Обс.
2%
DeepSeek
$90,677 Обс.
1%
Alibaba
$71,106 Обс.
1%
Moonshot
$90,897 Обс.
1%
Z.ai
$74,894 Обс.
1%
ByteDance
$83,836 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$69,511 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$71,810 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$61,229 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$67,744 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$66,612 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands the 72.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads major leaderboards such as BenchAlign at 84.76 while posting frontier results on SWE-Bench Verified, coding agent tasks, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s rapid cadence of high-capability releases, strong enterprise adoption signals, and consistent outperformance versus peers on agentic and technical workloads. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) sits at 11.5% after competitive but secondary scores, Google’s Gemini variants trail at 9.5% amid value-focused updates, and lower-tier contenders like xAI and Chinese labs register minimal odds due to narrower benchmark gaps. Continued model iterations through year-end remain the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,289,173Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands the 72.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads major leaderboards such as BenchAlign at 84.76 while posting frontier results on SWE-Bench Verified, coding agent tasks, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s rapid cadence of high-capability releases, strong enterprise adoption signals, and consistent outperformance versus peers on agentic and technical workloads. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) sits at 11.5% after competitive but secondary scores, Google’s Gemini variants trail at 9.5% amid value-focused updates, and lower-tier contenders like xAI and Chinese labs register minimal odds due to narrower benchmark gaps. Continued model iterations through year-end remain the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$1,289,173Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands the 72.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads major leaderboards such as BenchAlign at 84.76 while posting frontier results on SWE-Bench Verified, coding agent tasks, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s rapid cadence of high-capability releases, strong enterprise adoption signals, and consistent outperformance versus peers on agentic and technical workloads. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) sits at 11.5% after competitive but secondary scores, Google’s Gemini variants trail at 9.5% amid value-focused updates, and lower-tier contenders like xAI and Chinese labs register minimal odds due to narrower benchmark gaps. Continued model iterations through year-end remain the key swing factor.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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