Recent September CPI data showing 3.7% year-over-year inflation and 2.6% core, both above expectations, has elevated market-implied odds of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes beyond the current 3.75-4.00% target range ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.94 on October 14 after pulling back from its October 6 record of 7,818.93, with year-to-date gains near 13% supported by resilient corporate earnings, particularly in technology and AI-related sectors. Higher Treasury yields and persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical factors create headwinds for multiples, while upcoming releases on PPI, retail sales, and labor data will shape near-term rate path expectations through year-end.
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