**No U.S. Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 holds a 73% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting the absence of any retirement announcements or health-related exits among the nine justices.** The two oldest members—Clarence Thomas (age 78) and Samuel Alito (age 76)—have been the focus of speculation given their service length and typical retirement patterns near age 80. However, sources close to both have repeatedly stated they do not plan to step down in 2026, including reports from April confirming their intent to continue. In early August, Alito publicly stated he plans to serve at least through the upcoming term beginning in October 2026. A retracted June report claiming Alito’s imminent departure briefly increased speculation before being denied by the Court. With four months remaining and no confirmed developments altering the situation, trader consensus views an unplanned vacancy as unlikely before year-end.