Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated through third parties, center on a potential framework to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, impose verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear enrichment and missile program, and provide phased sanctions relief plus access to frozen assets estimated at over $100 billion. President Trump has repeatedly amended draft terms to strengthen U.S. demands on uranium stockpile disposal and enrichment timelines while signaling reluctance to unfreeze funds prior to a finalized deal. Recent communications indicate talks remain active with possible resolution in days, though Iranian counteroffers emphasize permanent sanctions easing and Hormuz guarantees. The June 30 horizon aligns with market-implied deadlines, against a backdrop of elevated global oil price volatility tied to Hormuz transit risks and broader energy market exposure.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
$972,763 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
Enrichment of Uranium
4%
Oil Sanction Relief
26%
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz
4%
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
26%
Troop Withdrawal
12%
$972,763 Обс.
Enrichment of Uranium
$216,915 Обс.
4%
Oil Sanction Relief
$130,394 Обс.
26%
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz
$180,643 Обс.
4%
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
$391,475 Обс.
26%
Troop Withdrawal
$54,516 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near Iran. Routine troop movements, relocations, or regular variations in the deployment or stationing of US military personnel, which are not part of a qualifying initiative or commitment, will not count.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran.
- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated through third parties, center on a potential framework to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, impose verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear enrichment and missile program, and provide phased sanctions relief plus access to frozen assets estimated at over $100 billion. President Trump has repeatedly amended draft terms to strengthen U.S. demands on uranium stockpile disposal and enrichment timelines while signaling reluctance to unfreeze funds prior to a finalized deal. Recent communications indicate talks remain active with possible resolution in days, though Iranian counteroffers emphasize permanent sanctions easing and Hormuz guarantees. The June 30 horizon aligns with market-implied deadlines, against a backdrop of elevated global oil price volatility tied to Hormuz transit risks and broader energy market exposure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Ринок відкрито: May 21, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$972,763Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 21, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near Iran. Routine troop movements, relocations, or regular variations in the deployment or stationing of US military personnel, which are not part of a qualifying initiative or commitment, will not count.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran.
- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated through third parties, center on a potential framework to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, impose verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear enrichment and missile program, and provide phased sanctions relief plus access to frozen assets estimated at over $100 billion. President Trump has repeatedly amended draft terms to strengthen U.S. demands on uranium stockpile disposal and enrichment timelines while signaling reluctance to unfreeze funds prior to a finalized deal. Recent communications indicate talks remain active with possible resolution in days, though Iranian counteroffers emphasize permanent sanctions easing and Hormuz guarantees. The June 30 horizon aligns with market-implied deadlines, against a backdrop of elevated global oil price volatility tied to Hormuz transit risks and broader energy market exposure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Обсяг
$972,763Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 21, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated through third parties, center on a potential framework to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, impose verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear enrichment and missile program, and provide phased sanctions relief plus access to frozen assets estimated at over $100 billion. President Trump has repeatedly amended draft terms to strengthen U.S. demands on uranium stockpile disposal and enrichment timelines while signaling reluctance to unfreeze funds prior to a finalized deal. Recent communications indicate talks remain active with possible resolution in days, though Iranian counteroffers emphasize permanent sanctions easing and Hormuz guarantees. The June 30 horizon aligns with market-implied deadlines, against a backdrop of elevated global oil price volatility tied to Hormuz transit risks and broader energy market exposure.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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