Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting FIFA's repeated confirmation that the team will compete in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, backed by the Iranian Football Federation's May 10 statement affirming full participation. Recent dismissals of political suggestions to swap in Italy—labeled inappropriate by Italian officials and rejected by FIFA President Gianni Infantino—have further stabilized the implied probability. The UAE sits as the leading alternative under AFC replacement rules if Iran withdraws, but no credible reports indicate such a move. Geopolitical tensions could still prompt a late withdrawal or entry denial, potentially opening the door for another Asian side or an extraordinary FIFA decision.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?
Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?
No Replacement 91.0%
Italy 6.5%
UAE 2.6%
Other <1%
$33,609 Обс.
$33,609 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
No Replacement
91%
Italy
7%
UAE
3%
Other
1%
Bolivia
<1%
No Replacement 91.0%
Italy 6.5%
UAE 2.6%
Other <1%
$33,609 Обс.
$33,609 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
No Replacement
$10,631 Обс.
91%
Italy
$15,896 Обс.
7%
UAE
$3,021 Обс.
3%
Other
$2,340 Обс.
1%
Bolivia
$1,721 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting FIFA's repeated confirmation that the team will compete in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, backed by the Iranian Football Federation's May 10 statement affirming full participation. Recent dismissals of political suggestions to swap in Italy—labeled inappropriate by Italian officials and rejected by FIFA President Gianni Infantino—have further stabilized the implied probability. The UAE sits as the leading alternative under AFC replacement rules if Iran withdraws, but no credible reports indicate such a move. Geopolitical tensions could still prompt a late withdrawal or entry denial, potentially opening the door for another Asian side or an extraordinary FIFA decision.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$33,609Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting FIFA's repeated confirmation that the team will compete in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, backed by the Iranian Football Federation's May 10 statement affirming full participation. Recent dismissals of political suggestions to swap in Italy—labeled inappropriate by Italian officials and rejected by FIFA President Gianni Infantino—have further stabilized the implied probability. The UAE sits as the leading alternative under AFC replacement rules if Iran withdraws, but no credible reports indicate such a move. Geopolitical tensions could still prompt a late withdrawal or entry denial, potentially opening the door for another Asian side or an extraordinary FIFA decision.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$33,609Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting FIFA's repeated confirmation that the team will compete in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, backed by the Iranian Football Federation's May 10 statement affirming full participation. Recent dismissals of political suggestions to swap in Italy—labeled inappropriate by Italian officials and rejected by FIFA President Gianni Infantino—have further stabilized the implied probability. The UAE sits as the leading alternative under AFC replacement rules if Iran withdraws, but no credible reports indicate such a move. Geopolitical tensions could still prompt a late withdrawal or entry denial, potentially opening the door for another Asian side or an extraordinary FIFA decision.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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