Roger Federer's official retirement following the 2022 Laver Cup, coupled with persistent knee injuries that sidelined him for years prior, underpins the 97.6% implied probability traders assign to "No" for his participation in Wimbledon 2026. At age 44, the 20-time Grand Slam champion has made only exhibition appearances this year, including a ceremonial return at the Australian Open and an upcoming doubles match with legends at the International Tennis Hall of Fame's grass-court Pro Celebrity Classic—his first grass action since retiring—but no ATP rankings activity or competitive comeback signals. Absent a shocking wildcard entry or unretirement announcement before late June's main draw, trader consensus views a full return as highly improbable, though late scratches or special invites remain theoretical wild cards.