**Trader consensus on “No” at 91.5% reflects the absence of any credible signals or preparations for a U.S. ground invasion of Iran in the narrow window before 2027.** President Trump has repeatedly described the conflict as “effectively over,” emphasized that major combat operations are unnecessary, and directed focus toward economic sanctions, a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and domestic priorities after the midterms. Recent diplomacy, including White House talks with Qatar’s prime minister, has produced statements that renewed large-scale strikes are “highly unlikely” while maintaining that U.S. forces remain “locked and loaded.” Ongoing low-level exchanges, such as targeted strikes on Qeshm Island and Iranian responses, have not escalated toward the scale or troop commitments required for invasion. Structural barriers—including logistical demands, regional preferences for the status quo, and post-election political constraints—further reduce the near-term probability of such an outcome.