Recent U.S. policy has prioritized targeted airstrikes, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and secondary sanctions over any ground invasion of Iran, consistent with the 69.5% market price on “No.” Following the February 2026 start of joint U.S.-Israeli operations and the April ceasefire, the Pentagon has emphasized limited raids and air campaigns while rejecting open-ended ground commitments. Fresh May reports show Iran reconstituting missile launchers under the truce, prompting renewed U.S. strike warnings from President Trump, yet diplomacy continues through Pakistani mediation with deadlines into June. Traders view these patterns—high costs of occupation, focus on nuclear and missile objectives, and preference for economic pressure—as strong barriers to a full invasion before 2027.