South Africa leads the implied probability for finishing last in World Cup Group A at 75.5 percent because its 2-0 opening loss to co-host Mexico left it with zero points and the group's worst goal difference, exposing defensive vulnerabilities against stronger sides. Traders see limited recovery potential for the lowest-ranked team in the group over the remaining two fixtures, especially with Mexico and South Korea already on three points each after their wins. Czechia sits at 23 percent following its narrow defeat to South Korea, while Mexico and South Korea remain near zero as frontrunners. The market reflects early results and relative squad depth rather than guarantees, with any major upset in upcoming matches able to shift the bottom position before group stage ends.