Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a steady 6-7 point national advantage heading into the November 2026 midterms, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically faces headwinds. This dynamic, alongside Republican vulnerabilities in competitive districts and Democratic overperformance in special elections, supports trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins in the 6-12% range. "Other" remains the leading outcome due to redistricting adjustments in key states and potential late shifts in voter turnout or economic conditions that could compress or reverse the margin. Forecasts from models like those at The Economist and Cook Political Report reflect these pressures while underscoring ongoing uncertainty in the final months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDemocrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,661 KL.
$119,661 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
22%
Democrats 8-10%
27%
Democrats 6-8%
18%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
7%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
6%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,661 KL.
$119,661 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,158 KL.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$2,466 KL.
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,106 KL.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$7,995 KL.
22%
Democrats 8-10%
$13,866 KL.
27%
Democrats 6-8%
$13,877 KL.
18%
Democrats 4-6%
$5,245 KL.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$14,161 KL.
7%
Democrats 0-2%
$13,479 KL.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,143 KL.
6%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,530 KL.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$2,878 KL.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,756 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a steady 6-7 point national advantage heading into the November 2026 midterms, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically faces headwinds. This dynamic, alongside Republican vulnerabilities in competitive districts and Democratic overperformance in special elections, supports trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins in the 6-12% range. "Other" remains the leading outcome due to redistricting adjustments in key states and potential late shifts in voter turnout or economic conditions that could compress or reverse the margin. Forecasts from models like those at The Economist and Cook Political Report reflect these pressures while underscoring ongoing uncertainty in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Thị trường mở: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$119,661Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a steady 6-7 point national advantage heading into the November 2026 midterms, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically faces headwinds. This dynamic, alongside Republican vulnerabilities in competitive districts and Democratic overperformance in special elections, supports trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins in the 6-12% range. "Other" remains the leading outcome due to redistricting adjustments in key states and potential late shifts in voter turnout or economic conditions that could compress or reverse the margin. Forecasts from models like those at The Economist and Cook Political Report reflect these pressures while underscoring ongoing uncertainty in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Khối lượng
$119,661Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a steady 6-7 point national advantage heading into the November 2026 midterms, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically faces headwinds. This dynamic, alongside Republican vulnerabilities in competitive districts and Democratic overperformance in special elections, supports trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins in the 6-12% range. "Other" remains the leading outcome due to redistricting adjustments in key states and potential late shifts in voter turnout or economic conditions that could compress or reverse the margin. Forecasts from models like those at The Economist and Cook Political Report reflect these pressures while underscoring ongoing uncertainty in the final months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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