Oklahoma City Thunder's status as defending champions, combined with their league-best 64-18 regular-season record and undefeated playoff run through the first two rounds, underpins trader consensus around their 58.5 percent implied probability. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring efficiency and the team's elite defensive rating continue to separate them despite Jalen Williams' hamstring concerns. San Antonio Spurs sit at 22.9 percent on the strength of Victor Wembanyama's two-way dominance and a 62-20 mark that positions them for a deep Western Conference run. New York Knicks hold 14.3 percent after demonstrating cohesive offensive and defensive execution in eliminating the Hawks and advancing in the East, while Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers trail at 4.0 percent and 1.9 percent respectively amid strong defensive showings but shorter overall title paths.