Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 94.3% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which rupture over 1,000 km of subduction zones and occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on USGS historical catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. In 2026, seismic activity remains below average, with the largest quakes at M7.5 near Tonga (March) and M7.4s off Indonesia and Japan (April), per USGS reports, showing no anomalous foreshocks or strain acceleration in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Realistic challenges include undetected slow-slip events triggering sudden rupture, though USGS real-time global monitoring provides no such signals; resolution nears end-2026 with continuous updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$191,437 KL.
$191,437 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,437 KL.
$191,437 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 94.3% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which rupture over 1,000 km of subduction zones and occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on USGS historical catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. In 2026, seismic activity remains below average, with the largest quakes at M7.5 near Tonga (March) and M7.4s off Indonesia and Japan (April), per USGS reports, showing no anomalous foreshocks or strain acceleration in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Realistic challenges include undetected slow-slip events triggering sudden rupture, though USGS real-time global monitoring provides no such signals; resolution nears end-2026 with continuous updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$191,437Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 94.3% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which rupture over 1,000 km of subduction zones and occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on USGS historical catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. In 2026, seismic activity remains below average, with the largest quakes at M7.5 near Tonga (March) and M7.4s off Indonesia and Japan (April), per USGS reports, showing no anomalous foreshocks or strain acceleration in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Realistic challenges include undetected slow-slip events triggering sudden rupture, though USGS real-time global monitoring provides no such signals; resolution nears end-2026 with continuous updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$191,437Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 94.3% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which rupture over 1,000 km of subduction zones and occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on USGS historical catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. In 2026, seismic activity remains below average, with the largest quakes at M7.5 near Tonga (March) and M7.4s off Indonesia and Japan (April), per USGS reports, showing no anomalous foreshocks or strain acceleration in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Realistic challenges include undetected slow-slip events triggering sudden rupture, though USGS real-time global monitoring provides no such signals; resolution nears end-2026 with continuous updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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