The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, which occur globally roughly once every 25–50 years on average with recurrence intervals of centuries in individual subduction zones, underpins the 94.3% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. Recent USGS data show no events exceeding magnitude 8.8 in 2025–2026, with ongoing seismic activity limited to typical 7+ aftershocks and smaller quakes that do not indicate buildup toward a great event. Historical patterns and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments confirm low short-term odds absent specific precursors. A realistic challenge could arise from an unexpected full-margin rupture in zones like Cascadia or Nankai, though even elevated regional probabilities remain well below 5% for such a narrow window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% khả năng
$272,928 KL.
$272,928 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
6% khả năng
$272,928 KL.
$272,928 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, which occur globally roughly once every 25–50 years on average with recurrence intervals of centuries in individual subduction zones, underpins the 94.3% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. Recent USGS data show no events exceeding magnitude 8.8 in 2025–2026, with ongoing seismic activity limited to typical 7+ aftershocks and smaller quakes that do not indicate buildup toward a great event. Historical patterns and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments confirm low short-term odds absent specific precursors. A realistic challenge could arise from an unexpected full-margin rupture in zones like Cascadia or Nankai, though even elevated regional probabilities remain well below 5% for such a narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$272,928Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, which occur globally roughly once every 25–50 years on average with recurrence intervals of centuries in individual subduction zones, underpins the 94.3% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. Recent USGS data show no events exceeding magnitude 8.8 in 2025–2026, with ongoing seismic activity limited to typical 7+ aftershocks and smaller quakes that do not indicate buildup toward a great event. Historical patterns and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments confirm low short-term odds absent specific precursors. A realistic challenge could arise from an unexpected full-margin rupture in zones like Cascadia or Nankai, though even elevated regional probabilities remain well below 5% for such a narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$272,928Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, which occur globally roughly once every 25–50 years on average with recurrence intervals of centuries in individual subduction zones, underpins the 94.3% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. Recent USGS data show no events exceeding magnitude 8.8 in 2025–2026, with ongoing seismic activity limited to typical 7+ aftershocks and smaller quakes that do not indicate buildup toward a great event. Historical patterns and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments confirm low short-term odds absent specific precursors. A realistic challenge could arise from an unexpected full-margin rupture in zones like Cascadia or Nankai, though even elevated regional probabilities remain well below 5% for such a narrow window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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