Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.8% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the virus's inherent biological limitations and the contained nature of the recent multi-country cluster linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship. CDC and WHO reports confirm just eight cases—six laboratory-verified Andes virus infections and two suspected—as of May 8, with three deaths among passengers; this strain is unique for rare person-to-person spread via close contact, but transmission remains inefficient without sustained chains observed. Baseline epidemiology shows U.S. hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases averaging under 30 annually from rodent exposure, with no historical precedent for global escalation. Realistic challenges include undetected community outbreaks or viral mutations enabling airborne spread, though officials assess general public risk as low; monitor CDC situation updates and WHO briefings for new genomic or surveillance data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
$9,096,876 KL.
$9,096,876 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$9,096,876 KL.
$9,096,876 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.8% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the virus's inherent biological limitations and the contained nature of the recent multi-country cluster linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship. CDC and WHO reports confirm just eight cases—six laboratory-verified Andes virus infections and two suspected—as of May 8, with three deaths among passengers; this strain is unique for rare person-to-person spread via close contact, but transmission remains inefficient without sustained chains observed. Baseline epidemiology shows U.S. hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases averaging under 30 annually from rodent exposure, with no historical precedent for global escalation. Realistic challenges include undetected community outbreaks or viral mutations enabling airborne spread, though officials assess general public risk as low; monitor CDC situation updates and WHO briefings for new genomic or surveillance data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,096,876Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.8% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the virus's inherent biological limitations and the contained nature of the recent multi-country cluster linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship. CDC and WHO reports confirm just eight cases—six laboratory-verified Andes virus infections and two suspected—as of May 8, with three deaths among passengers; this strain is unique for rare person-to-person spread via close contact, but transmission remains inefficient without sustained chains observed. Baseline epidemiology shows U.S. hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases averaging under 30 annually from rodent exposure, with no historical precedent for global escalation. Realistic challenges include undetected community outbreaks or viral mutations enabling airborne spread, though officials assess general public risk as low; monitor CDC situation updates and WHO briefings for new genomic or surveillance data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$9,115,706Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.8% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the virus's inherent biological limitations and the contained nature of the recent multi-country cluster linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship. CDC and WHO reports confirm just eight cases—six laboratory-verified Andes virus infections and two suspected—as of May 8, with three deaths among passengers; this strain is unique for rare person-to-person spread via close contact, but transmission remains inefficient without sustained chains observed. Baseline epidemiology shows U.S. hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases averaging under 30 annually from rodent exposure, with no historical precedent for global escalation. Realistic challenges include undetected community outbreaks or viral mutations enabling airborne spread, though officials assess general public risk as low; monitor CDC situation updates and WHO briefings for new genomic or surveillance data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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