**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
$79,467 KL.
$79,467 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$79,467 KL.
$79,467 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Khối lượng
$79,467Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$79,467Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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