**Trader consensus centers on the 20–34 range (54% implied probability) for 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among New York City residents, reflecting 18 confirmed cases through mid-September alongside 1,669 positive mosquito pools.** Recent NYC Department of Health surveillance shows activity beginning earlier than in 2025, with widespread detections across boroughs and elevated pool counts compared to prior seasons. Historical data indicate recent five-year averages of 25–31 neuroinvasive cases annually (range 16–36), following lower baselines of about 16 per year from 2012–2021. Ongoing mosquito season through October, variable weather-driven transmission, and typical late-summer peaks introduce uncertainty, yet current indicators align with moderate rather than extreme totals. Updated case reports and final CDC ArboNET data will refine resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
20 to 34 54%
35 to 49 27%
50 or more 8.6%
Fewer than 20 5.8%
$12,338 KL.
$12,338 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
6%
20 to 34
54%
35 to 49
27%
50 or more
9%
20 to 34 54%
35 to 49 27%
50 or more 8.6%
Fewer than 20 5.8%
$12,338 KL.
$12,338 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$3,969 KL.
6%
20 to 34
$5,080 KL.
54%
35 to 49
$2,722 KL.
27%
50 or more
$566 KL.
9%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.**Trader consensus centers on the 20–34 range (54% implied probability) for 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among New York City residents, reflecting 18 confirmed cases through mid-September alongside 1,669 positive mosquito pools.** Recent NYC Department of Health surveillance shows activity beginning earlier than in 2025, with widespread detections across boroughs and elevated pool counts compared to prior seasons. Historical data indicate recent five-year averages of 25–31 neuroinvasive cases annually (range 16–36), following lower baselines of about 16 per year from 2012–2021. Ongoing mosquito season through October, variable weather-driven transmission, and typical late-summer peaks introduce uncertainty, yet current indicators align with moderate rather than extreme totals. Updated case reports and final CDC ArboNET data will refine resolution.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$12,338Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.**Trader consensus centers on the 20–34 range (54% implied probability) for 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among New York City residents, reflecting 18 confirmed cases through mid-September alongside 1,669 positive mosquito pools.** Recent NYC Department of Health surveillance shows activity beginning earlier than in 2025, with widespread detections across boroughs and elevated pool counts compared to prior seasons. Historical data indicate recent five-year averages of 25–31 neuroinvasive cases annually (range 16–36), following lower baselines of about 16 per year from 2012–2021. Ongoing mosquito season through October, variable weather-driven transmission, and typical late-summer peaks introduce uncertainty, yet current indicators align with moderate rather than extreme totals. Updated case reports and final CDC ArboNET data will refine resolution.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Khối lượng
$12,338Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on the 20–34 range (54% implied probability) for 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among New York City residents, reflecting 18 confirmed cases through mid-September alongside 1,669 positive mosquito pools.** Recent NYC Department of Health surveillance shows activity beginning earlier than in 2025, with widespread detections across boroughs and elevated pool counts compared to prior seasons. Historical data indicate recent five-year averages of 25–31 neuroinvasive cases annually (range 16–36), following lower baselines of about 16 per year from 2012–2021. Ongoing mosquito season through October, variable weather-driven transmission, and typical late-summer peaks introduce uncertainty, yet current indicators align with moderate rather than extreme totals. Updated case reports and final CDC ArboNET data will refine resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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