Recent successful flights of SpaceX's upgraded Starship V3 vehicles, including the 12th overall test in May and 13th in July 2026 with Starlink V3 satellite deployments, have strengthened trader confidence in incremental cadence gains. These milestones, building on Raptor 3 engine reliability and new launch infrastructure at Starbase, position 5-6 total space-reaching launches as the leading outcome at 61.5% implied probability by reflecting steady production and testing progress without overcommitting to unproven high-volume operations. A sub-5 result holds notable support at 33.5% amid ongoing vehicle iteration, regulatory reviews, and supply chain limits, while higher bins remain low-probability due to typical aerospace timelines and the need for further orbital demonstrations before sustained commercial or Artemis-related activity accelerates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
5-6 61%
<5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.0%
$492,887 KL.
$492,887 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
34%
5-6
61%
7-8
8%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 61%
<5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.0%
$492,887 KL.
$492,887 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$99,128 KL.
34%
5-6
$113,791 KL.
61%
7-8
$158,458 KL.
8%
9-10
$61,464 KL.
3%
11-12
$8,371 KL.
3%
13-14
$9,146 KL.
<1%
15-16
$30,046 KL.
<1%
>16
$12,483 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent successful flights of SpaceX's upgraded Starship V3 vehicles, including the 12th overall test in May and 13th in July 2026 with Starlink V3 satellite deployments, have strengthened trader confidence in incremental cadence gains. These milestones, building on Raptor 3 engine reliability and new launch infrastructure at Starbase, position 5-6 total space-reaching launches as the leading outcome at 61.5% implied probability by reflecting steady production and testing progress without overcommitting to unproven high-volume operations. A sub-5 result holds notable support at 33.5% amid ongoing vehicle iteration, regulatory reviews, and supply chain limits, while higher bins remain low-probability due to typical aerospace timelines and the need for further orbital demonstrations before sustained commercial or Artemis-related activity accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$492,887Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent successful flights of SpaceX's upgraded Starship V3 vehicles, including the 12th overall test in May and 13th in July 2026 with Starlink V3 satellite deployments, have strengthened trader confidence in incremental cadence gains. These milestones, building on Raptor 3 engine reliability and new launch infrastructure at Starbase, position 5-6 total space-reaching launches as the leading outcome at 61.5% implied probability by reflecting steady production and testing progress without overcommitting to unproven high-volume operations. A sub-5 result holds notable support at 33.5% amid ongoing vehicle iteration, regulatory reviews, and supply chain limits, while higher bins remain low-probability due to typical aerospace timelines and the need for further orbital demonstrations before sustained commercial or Artemis-related activity accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$492,887Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent successful flights of SpaceX's upgraded Starship V3 vehicles, including the 12th overall test in May and 13th in July 2026 with Starlink V3 satellite deployments, have strengthened trader confidence in incremental cadence gains. These milestones, building on Raptor 3 engine reliability and new launch infrastructure at Starbase, position 5-6 total space-reaching launches as the leading outcome at 61.5% implied probability by reflecting steady production and testing progress without overcommitting to unproven high-volume operations. A sub-5 result holds notable support at 33.5% amid ongoing vehicle iteration, regulatory reviews, and supply chain limits, while higher bins remain low-probability due to typical aerospace timelines and the need for further orbital demonstrations before sustained commercial or Artemis-related activity accelerates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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