SpaceX Starship's extended testing phase and recent delays position the sub-5 launch outcome as the market favorite for 2026. The vehicle completed its 11th overall flight in October 2025 and has remained grounded since, with the first 2026 test now targeted for May 19 using the new V3 architecture, upgraded Raptor engines, and a second launch pad at Starbase. While static-fire tests in early May validated the 33-engine booster, the eight-month hiatus underscores ongoing challenges in achieving rapid reusability and high launch cadence. Traders appear to weigh these technical milestones against the vehicle's history of incremental progress, where each new block introduces significant redesigns that historically extend timelines before scaling operations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
<5 53%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.2%
9-10 2.4%
$449,768 KL.
$449,768 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
53%
5-6
24%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
2%
<5 53%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.2%
9-10 2.4%
$449,768 KL.
$449,768 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$90,615 KL.
53%
5-6
$108,322 KL.
24%
7-8
$152,207 KL.
4%
9-10
$55,882 KL.
2%
11-12
$3,765 KL.
2%
13-14
$4,747 KL.
1%
15-16
$25,181 KL.
2%
>16
$9,048 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX Starship's extended testing phase and recent delays position the sub-5 launch outcome as the market favorite for 2026. The vehicle completed its 11th overall flight in October 2025 and has remained grounded since, with the first 2026 test now targeted for May 19 using the new V3 architecture, upgraded Raptor engines, and a second launch pad at Starbase. While static-fire tests in early May validated the 33-engine booster, the eight-month hiatus underscores ongoing challenges in achieving rapid reusability and high launch cadence. Traders appear to weigh these technical milestones against the vehicle's history of incremental progress, where each new block introduces significant redesigns that historically extend timelines before scaling operations.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$449,768Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX Starship's extended testing phase and recent delays position the sub-5 launch outcome as the market favorite for 2026. The vehicle completed its 11th overall flight in October 2025 and has remained grounded since, with the first 2026 test now targeted for May 19 using the new V3 architecture, upgraded Raptor engines, and a second launch pad at Starbase. While static-fire tests in early May validated the 33-engine booster, the eight-month hiatus underscores ongoing challenges in achieving rapid reusability and high launch cadence. Traders appear to weigh these technical milestones against the vehicle's history of incremental progress, where each new block introduces significant redesigns that historically extend timelines before scaling operations.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$449,768Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX Starship's extended testing phase and recent delays position the sub-5 launch outcome as the market favorite for 2026. The vehicle completed its 11th overall flight in October 2025 and has remained grounded since, with the first 2026 test now targeted for May 19 using the new V3 architecture, upgraded Raptor engines, and a second launch pad at Starbase. While static-fire tests in early May validated the 33-engine booster, the eight-month hiatus underscores ongoing challenges in achieving rapid reusability and high launch cadence. Traders appear to weigh these technical milestones against the vehicle's history of incremental progress, where each new block introduces significant redesigns that historically extend timelines before scaling operations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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