SpaceX’s rapid iteration on Starship Version 3, highlighted by Flight 13’s July 2026 success in deploying operational Starlink V3 satellites, relighting a Raptor engine in space, and recovering the upper stage intact after reentry, underpins the 73% market-implied probability for full reusability before 2028. The booster stage has already demonstrated tower catches and at least one reflight, while V3 hardware refinements and Raptor 3 reliability gains address prior heat-shield and landing issues. Traders see these milestones, combined with Elon Musk’s timeline for an upper-stage tower catch and reflight within the next year, as evidence that both stages can achieve rapid reuse cycles ahead of the deadline. Flight 14’s upcoming orbital attempt and planned ship-catch tests remain key near-term catalysts that could further shift sentiment.