Recent SpaceX flight tests, including the first reuse of a Super Heavy booster in 2025 and ongoing V3 vehicle development with advanced Raptor 3 engines and avionics, have driven the 61% market-implied odds for full Starship reusability before 2028. Booster catch-and-refly operations demonstrate rapid turnaround progress, yet upper-stage challenges—such as Raptor relight difficulties during controlled reentry on the May 2026 test—highlight remaining hurdles for ship recovery and high flight rates. Traders weigh these milestones against SpaceX's aggressive 2026 timeline for orbital refueling demos and dual-stage catches, which could accelerate or delay full reusability depending on regulatory approvals and test outcomes.