**Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 72.5% implied probability** because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 large language models recently topped or tied independent benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Terminal-Bench 4.0 after the September 1 release, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on knowledge-work, scientific coding, and factual accuracy metrics. Multiple frontier labs shipped updated models in early September 2026, yet Anthropic’s consistent gains in agentic capabilities, SWE-bench Pro scores, and pricing efficiency have reinforced its edge in the competitive landscape. OpenAI’s latest release narrowed some gaps but trails on key third-party evaluations, while Google, xAI, and others remain further behind on frontier reasoning and coding tasks. Upcoming developer conferences and additional benchmark releases through year-end could still shift relative positioning before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 4.3%
$1,289,960 KL.
$1,289,960 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
12%
10%
xAI
4%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 4.3%
$1,289,960 KL.
$1,289,960 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$156,448 KL.
73%
OpenAI
$122,532 KL.
12%
$77,778 KL.
10%
xAI
$106,892 KL.
4%
Meta
$77,964 KL.
2%
DeepSeek
$90,677 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$71,135 KL.
1%
Moonshot
$90,897 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$74,894 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$83,836 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$69,511 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$71,810 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$61,229 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$67,744 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$66,612 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 72.5% implied probability** because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 large language models recently topped or tied independent benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Terminal-Bench 4.0 after the September 1 release, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on knowledge-work, scientific coding, and factual accuracy metrics. Multiple frontier labs shipped updated models in early September 2026, yet Anthropic’s consistent gains in agentic capabilities, SWE-bench Pro scores, and pricing efficiency have reinforced its edge in the competitive landscape. OpenAI’s latest release narrowed some gaps but trails on key third-party evaluations, while Google, xAI, and others remain further behind on frontier reasoning and coding tasks. Upcoming developer conferences and additional benchmark releases through year-end could still shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,289,960Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 72.5% implied probability** because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 large language models recently topped or tied independent benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Terminal-Bench 4.0 after the September 1 release, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on knowledge-work, scientific coding, and factual accuracy metrics. Multiple frontier labs shipped updated models in early September 2026, yet Anthropic’s consistent gains in agentic capabilities, SWE-bench Pro scores, and pricing efficiency have reinforced its edge in the competitive landscape. OpenAI’s latest release narrowed some gaps but trails on key third-party evaluations, while Google, xAI, and others remain further behind on frontier reasoning and coding tasks. Upcoming developer conferences and additional benchmark releases through year-end could still shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$1,289,960Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 72.5% implied probability** because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 large language models recently topped or tied independent benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Terminal-Bench 4.0 after the September 1 release, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on knowledge-work, scientific coding, and factual accuracy metrics. Multiple frontier labs shipped updated models in early September 2026, yet Anthropic’s consistent gains in agentic capabilities, SWE-bench Pro scores, and pricing efficiency have reinforced its edge in the competitive landscape. OpenAI’s latest release narrowed some gaps but trails on key third-party evaluations, while Google, xAI, and others remain further behind on frontier reasoning and coding tasks. Upcoming developer conferences and additional benchmark releases through year-end could still shift relative positioning before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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