Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases in early September have driven the 74.5% implied probability, as independent leaderboards rank these models at or near the top on composite intelligence indices, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and Terminal-Bench, and knowledge-work evaluations. Their edge stems from strong agentic capabilities, consistent frontier performance across coding and reasoning tasks, and a track record of reliable releases that have outpaced competitors in recent months. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched around September 3, sits close behind on several metrics but trails in trader consensus. Lower odds for Google, Meta, and others reflect solid but non-leading positions in current benchmarks. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, any new model launches or major benchmark updates from OpenAI or rivals could still shift positioning before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 75%
Meta 12%
Amazon 9.3%
Google 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
75%
Meta
12%
Amazon
9%
9%
Meituan
3%
StepFun
3%
Thinky
3%
Nvidia
3%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
Tencent
1%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Anthropic 75%
Meta 12%
Amazon 9.3%
Google 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$1,221 KL.
75%
Meta
$194 KL.
12%
Amazon
$191 KL.
9%
$188 KL.
9%
Meituan
$191 KL.
3%
StepFun
$191 KL.
3%
Thinky
$193 KL.
3%
Nvidia
$180 KL.
3%
OpenAI
$182 KL.
2%
Moonshot
$182 KL.
2%
Alibaba
$160 KL.
2%
Tencent
$186 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$131 KL.
1%
SpaceXAI
$170 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$187 KL.
1%
Baidu
$140 KL.
1%
Xiaomi
$190 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$191 KL.
1%
MiniMax
$191 KL.
1%
Mistral
$231 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$260 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases in early September have driven the 74.5% implied probability, as independent leaderboards rank these models at or near the top on composite intelligence indices, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and Terminal-Bench, and knowledge-work evaluations. Their edge stems from strong agentic capabilities, consistent frontier performance across coding and reasoning tasks, and a track record of reliable releases that have outpaced competitors in recent months. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched around September 3, sits close behind on several metrics but trails in trader consensus. Lower odds for Google, Meta, and others reflect solid but non-leading positions in current benchmarks. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, any new model launches or major benchmark updates from OpenAI or rivals could still shift positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,949Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases in early September have driven the 74.5% implied probability, as independent leaderboards rank these models at or near the top on composite intelligence indices, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and Terminal-Bench, and knowledge-work evaluations. Their edge stems from strong agentic capabilities, consistent frontier performance across coding and reasoning tasks, and a track record of reliable releases that have outpaced competitors in recent months. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched around September 3, sits close behind on several metrics but trails in trader consensus. Lower odds for Google, Meta, and others reflect solid but non-leading positions in current benchmarks. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, any new model launches or major benchmark updates from OpenAI or rivals could still shift positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$4,949Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases in early September have driven the 74.5% implied probability, as independent leaderboards rank these models at or near the top on composite intelligence indices, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and Terminal-Bench, and knowledge-work evaluations. Their edge stems from strong agentic capabilities, consistent frontier performance across coding and reasoning tasks, and a track record of reliable releases that have outpaced competitors in recent months. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched around September 3, sits close behind on several metrics but trails in trader consensus. Lower odds for Google, Meta, and others reflect solid but non-leading positions in current benchmarks. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, any new model launches or major benchmark updates from OpenAI or rivals could still shift positioning before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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